Bucks vs. Nuggets Prediction, Odds, Picks - Jan. 11

The Denver Nuggets (25-13) play the Milwaukee Bucks (17-21) on January 11, 2026 at Ball Arena. Milwaukee is a modest 2.5-point favorite against Denver when the Bucks square off against the Nuggets on Sunday. The over/under is 219.5 points for the game.

Here is everything you need to know to know about the Bucks-Nuggets game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert picks, as well as TV channel and streaming information.

Bucks vs. Nuggets Game Information, TV Channel & Odds

• When: Sunday, January 11, 2026 at 8 p.m. ET
• Where: Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado
• TV: ALT and FDSWI
• Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

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Bucks vs. Nuggets Prediction

ATS Pick: Nuggets (+ 2.5)
O/U Pick: Over (219.5)
Score Prediction: Nuggets 122 - Bucks 113

Bucks vs. Nuggets Betting Insights

• This year, the Bucks games have gone over 219.5 points scored, their current matchup's point total, 24 (out of 38) times.
• This year, 32 of the Nuggets' 38 games have had a combined total of more than 219.5 points scored.
• Between them, these two teams average 16.7 more points per game (236.2) than this matchup's total (219.5).
• The Bucks and the Nuggets have seen their opponents average a combined 13.6 more points per game than the point total of 219.5 set in this game.
• Milwaukee has won 10, or 58.8%, of the 17 contests in which it was the favorite this year.
• Denver has been chosen as underdogs in nine games this year and has walked away with the win five times (55.6%) in those games.
• Milwaukee and Denver have split the last two games they've played.
• The Bucks have a 2-0 record against the spread when facing the Nuggets.

Bucks Recent Trends

• The Bucks are 6-4 against the spread and 6-4 overall in their last 10 games.
• Milwaukee has averaged a total of 228.6 combined points over its last 10 games, 9.1 greater than this matchup's total of 219.5.
• The Bucks have 18 wins against the spread in 38 games this season.
• Milwaukee has an against the spread record of 6-6 in its 12 games when favored by 2.5 points or more so far this season.
• The Bucks have gone over the point total in 39.5% of their opportunities this year (15 times in 38 games with a set point total).
• The Bucks average 113.1 points per game, just 4.7 fewer points than the 117.8 the Nuggets allow.
• Milwaukee has a 7-3 record against the spread and an 8-2 record overall when scoring more than 117.8 points.
• This season, the Bucks have a 48.6% shooting percentage from the field, which is 1.4% higher than the 47.2% of shots the Nuggets' opponents have knocked down.
• The Bucks have done a better job covering the spread when playing on the road (10-10-0) than they have at home (8-10-0).
• Milwaukee has exceeded the total in a higher percentage of home games (44.4%) than road tilts (35%).
• As a moneyline favorite, the Bucks have won a lower percentage of their games when playing at home (.556) compared to away games (.625).

Bucks Recent Stats

Bucks Leaders

• Ryan Rollins averages 17.0 points, 4.4 rebounds and 5.6 assists per game. Defensively, he averages 1.5 steals and 0.3 blocks.
• Giannis Antetokounmpo averages 29.2 points, 5.5 assists and 9.8 rebounds per contest.
• Myles Turner averages 12.3 points, 5.3 boards and 1.6 assists per game, shooting 41.7% from the field and 38.0% from downtown with 2.2 made 3-pointers per contest.
• Bobby Portis posts 12.9 points, 6.6 boards and 1.3 assists per game, shooting 48.4% from the field and 46.5% from beyond the arc (third in NBA) with 1.9 made treys per game.
• Kyle Kuzma posts 12.8 points, 4.8 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game, shooting 51.5% from the field.

Bucks Player Props

Nuggets Recent Trends

• The Nuggets are 5-5 against the spread and 4-6 overall in their past 10 contests.
• Denver has averaged a total of 234.0 combined points in its last 10 games, 14.5 greater than this matchup's over/under of 219.5.
• The Nuggets are 22-16-0 against the spread this year.
• This year, Denver has an against-the-spread record of 5-1 in its six games as an underdog of 2.5 points or more.
• Nuggets games this season have hit the over on 24 of 38 set point totals (63.2%).
• The Nuggets put up an average of 123.1 points per game, 7.8 more points than the 115.3 the Bucks allow to opponents.
• Denver has put together an 18-11 ATS record and a 21-8 overall record in games it scores more than 115.3 points.
• The Nuggets are shooting 50.5% from the field, 3.9% higher than the 46.6% the Bucks' opponents have shot this season.
• Against the spread, the Nuggets have had better results on the road (13-9-0) than at home (9-7-0) .
• In 2025-26 a lower percentage of Denver's games have finished above the over/under at home (62.5%, 10 of 16) than away (63.6%, 14 of 22).
• In 2025-26 when moneyline favorites, the Nuggets have a better winning percentage at home (.692, 9-4 record) than away (.688, 11-5).

Nuggets Recent Stats

Nuggets Leaders

• On a per-game basis, Jamal Murray gives the Nuggets 25.3 points, 4.7 rebounds and 7.5 assists. He also averages 1.0 steal and 0.3 blocked shots.
• The Nuggets are receiving 13.0 points, 4.9 rebounds and 1.6 assists per game from Peyton Watson this season.
• Tim Hardaway Jr. is averaging 13.5 points, 2.3 rebounds and 1.4 assists per game. He is draining 45.6% of his shots from the floor and 40.9% from 3-point range, with 2.8 triples per contest.
• Bruce Brown gives the Nuggets 7.2 points, 4.2 rebounds and 2.1 assists per contest while putting up 1.1 steals and 0.2 blocked shots.
• Aaron Gordon gives the Nuggets 18.1 points, 6.1 rebounds and 1.6 assists per contest while posting 0.6 steals and 0.2 blocked shots.

Nuggets Player Props

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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