Twins vs. Rays Prediction, Odds, Picks - July 4

Chris Paddack gets the start for the Minnesota Twins on Friday at Target Field against Brandon Lowe and the Tampa Bay Rays. First pitch is at 4:10 p.m. ET. The Twins are the favorite in this one, at -120, while the underdog Rays have +100 odds to win. Tampa Bay (-1.5) is the favorite on the run line. The contest's total has been set at 10 runs.

Check out everything you need from a betting perspective on the Twins-Rays game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Twins vs. Rays Game Information & Odds

• When: Friday, July 4, 2025 at 4:10 p.m. ET
• Where: Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota
• How to watch on TV: MNNT and FDSSUN

Twins vs. Rays Prediction

• Score Prediction: Rays 5, Twins 4
• Total Prediction: Under 10 runs
• Win Probabilities: Twins 51%, Rays 49%

Twins vs. Rays Betting Insights

• This season, the Twins have been favored 55 times and won 28, or 50.9%, of those games.
• Minnesota has a record of 24-15 in games when bookmakers favor them by at least -120 on the moneyline.
• Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Twins have a 54.5% chance to win.
• The Rays have won in 19, or 50%, of the 38 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
• This season, Tampa Bay has come away with a win 15 times in 28 chances when named as an underdog of at least +100 or worse on the moneyline.
• Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Rays have a 50% chance of pulling out a win.

Twins Recent Betting Performance

• The Twins went 3-3 over the six games they were a moneyline favorite in their last 10 matchups.
• Over their last 10 matchups, the Twins and their opponents combined to go over the run total four times (all 10 games had set totals).
• The Twins' ATS record is 4-6-0 over their past 10 games.

Twins Recent Stats

Twins Player Insights

• Not only does Byron Buxton lead the Twins in hitting with his .272 average, he also is their foremost power hitter with 19 home runs and 51 RBI.
• Including all MLB hitters, Buxton is 53rd in batting average, 66th in on-base percentage, and ninth in slugging.
• Trevor Larnach is batting .253 with 13 doubles, a triple, 12 home runs and 27 walks.
• Larnach is 60th in home runs and 83rd in RBI among all hitters in MLB.
• Ty France has 15 doubles, six home runs and 14 walks while hitting .256.
• Carlos Correa is batting .259 with 14 doubles, seven home runs and 16 walks.

Twins Team Props

Rays Recent Betting Performance

• The Rays have played as underdogs in four of their past 10 games and won two of those contests.
• When it comes to hitting the over, the Rays and their opponents are 5-5-0 in their last 10 games with a total.
• The Rays have four wins against the spread in their last 10 chances.

Rays Recent Stats

Rays Player Insights

• Junior Caminero leads the Rays in home runs (21) and runs batted in (53).
• Caminero ranks eighth in home runs and 24th in RBI among all hitters in the big leagues.
• Caminero has collected a hit in four straight games. In his last five games he is batting .238 with two doubles, a home run, two walks and two RBIs.
• Yandy Diaz is hitting .291 with 16 doubles, a triple, 14 home runs and 27 walks.
• Diaz is 39th in home runs and 35th in RBI among all major league hitters this season.
• Lowe has 11 doubles, 19 home runs and 23 walks while batting .274.
• Jonathan Aranda leads the Rays with a team-high batting average of .320.

Rays Team Props

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FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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