Phillies vs. Dodgers NLDS Game 1 Prediction, Odds, Picks - October 4

The Philadelphia Phillies will host the Los Angeles Dodgers to begin the NLDS on Saturday at 6:38 p.m. ET, live on TBS, truTV, and HBO Max from Citizens Bank Park. The Dodgers are -104 moneyline underdogs in this matchup with the favored Phillies (-116). Los Angeles is a 1.5-run favorite (at +169 odds). The over/under is 7 runs for this game.

Take a look at everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Phillies-Dodgers game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Phillies vs. Dodgers Game Information & Odds

• When: Saturday, October 4, 2025 at 6:38 p.m. ET
• Where: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
• How to watch on TV: TBS, truTV, and HBO Max

Phillies vs. Dodgers Prediction

• Score Prediction: Phillies 5, Dodgers 4
• Total Prediction: Over 7 runs
• Win Probabilities: Phillies 53%, Dodgers 47%

Phillies vs. Dodgers Betting Insights

• The Phillies have entered the game as favorites 129 times this season and won 80, or 62%, of those games.
• Philadelphia is 75-44 this season when entering a game favored by -116 or more on the moneyline.
• The oddsmakers' moneyline implies a 53.7% chance of a victory for the Phillies.
• The Dodgers have been chosen as underdogs in 19 games this year and have walked away with the win 10 times (52.6%) in those games.
• This year, Los Angeles has won eight of 15 games when listed as at least -104 or worse on the moneyline.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Dodgers have a 51% chance of walking away with the win.

Phillies Recent Betting Performance

• The Phillies went 4-3 across the seven games they were favored on the moneyline in their last 10 matchups.
• Over their last 10 matchups, the Phillies and their opponents combined to go over the run total four times (all 10 of the games had set totals).
• The Phillies are 3-7-0 against the spread over their past 10 games.

Phillies Recent Stats

Phillies Player Insights

• The Phillies' best power option comes in the form of Kyle Schwarber and his 56-home-run 132-RBI season, both team highs.
• In all of the majors, Schwarber is second in home runs and first in RBI.
• Trea Turner's .304 batting average leads his team.
• Turner ranks 143rd in homers in the majors, and 90th in RBI.
• Bryce Harper has 32 doubles, 27 home runs and 70 walks while batting .261.
• Bryson Stott is batting .257 with 22 doubles, three triples, 13 home runs and 54 walks.
• Stott has recorded at least one hit in two games in a row. During his last five outings he is batting .313 with a home run and an RBI.

Phillies Team Props

Dodgers Recent Betting Performance

• Over the past 10 games, the Dodgers have been underdogs twice and won both contests.
• The Dodgers and their opponents have combined to hit the over five times in their last 10 games with a total.
• The Dodgers have seven wins against the spread in their last 10 chances.

Dodgers Recent Stats

Dodgers Player Insights

• Shohei Ohtani leads the Dodgers with 55 home runs and runs batted in, driving in 102.
• Among all hitters in the majors, Ohtani ranks third in home runs and 14th in RBI.
• Ohtani brings a hitting streak of three games into this game. During his last five outings he is hitting .318 with a double, four home runs, two walks and seven RBIs.
• Mookie Betts has 23 doubles, two triples, 20 home runs and 61 walks while batting .258.
• Betts ranks 84th in home runs and 51st in RBI among all MLB hitters this season.
• Freddie Freeman leads the Dodgers' lineup with a .295 batting average.
• Andy Pages has 27 doubles, a triple, 27 home runs and 29 walks while batting .272.

Dodgers Team Props

Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, David Ortiz & Dontrelle Willis make 2025 World Series predictions

The "MLB on FOX" crew made their predictions for the 2025 World Series.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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