WhatIfSports 2014 College Football Week 14 Predictions

BY foxsports • December 24, 2016

Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine provides game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. 

Check out our 2014 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.

Game of the Week: Michigan at Ohio State

In the five games Michigan has won this season, the Wolverines defense has allowed 11.2 points per game. In the six games they've lost, the defense has allowed 28.5 points per game. The defense's margin of error cannot be that great when the Wolverine's offense is only averaging 20.3 points per game - ranked 114th in FBS.

Turnovers have also hurt Brady Hoke's squad as well as his job security heading into 2015. Michigan' turnover margin (-1.27 / game) is dead last in the Big Ten. Senior quarterback Devin Gardner has thrown 14 interceptions with only eight touchdowns - one of the worst ratios among FBS quarterbacks.

The running back tandem of De'Veon Smith and Derrick Green has combined for nine touchdowns and better than 5.0 yards per carry. Devin Funchess (55 receptions for 625 yards with four touchdowns) is Gardner's primary target at this juncture, which isn't much when it comes to a very mundane, uncreative offense.

Fact: after starting 5-0 in 2013, the Wolverines are 7-12 in the past 19 games.

Ohio State needs a win to keep its slim college football playoff hopes alive. However, a trend Urban Meyer would like to buck heading into the Big Ten Championship would be slow starts and a defense that has allowed more than 29 points per game over their last three contests. The 29 PAPG is nearly seven points more than their season average of 22.5 (30th in FBS).

During that same stretch, which started with an upset win over Michigan State, J.T. Barrett has thrown 10 touchdowns with only three interceptions and rushed for 353 yards with three more touchdowns (117.6 rush yards per game).

Freshman receiver Jalin Marshall has stepped up over the last two games with 10 receptions for 190 yards and four touchdowns.

We simulated the Buckeyes and Wolverines 101 times and the computers like Ohio State to win 72.3 percent of the time by an average score of 25-18.

College Football Week 14 Predictions
Matchup Win % Avg. Score  
Florida Gators 25.7 17.2 Boxscore
Florida State Seminoles 74.3 26.8  
North Carolina State Wolfpack 35.6 24.0 Boxscore
North Carolina Tar Heels 64.4 28.2  
Kentucky Wildcats 35.6 20.0 Boxscore
Louisville Cardinals 64.4 23.9  
Wake Forest Demon Deacons 35.1 16.6 Boxscore
Duke Blue Devils 64.9 22.1  
Syracuse Orange 38.6 17.3 Boxscore
Boston College Eagles 61.4 20.5  
Pittsburgh Panthers 44.6 21.7 Boxscore
Miami (FL) Hurricanes 55.4 22.8  
South Carolina Gamecocks 46.5 21.6 Boxscore
Clemson Tigers 53.5 22.2  
Virginia Cavaliers 53.5 19.0 Boxscore
@ Virginia Tech Hokies 46.5 18.5  
Michigan Wolverines 27.7 17.7 Boxscore
Ohio State Buckeyes 72.3 25.4  
Minnesota Golden Gophers 39.6 16.0 Boxscore
Wisconsin Badgers 60.4 20.6  
Purdue Boilermakers 44.1 23.1 Boxscore
Indiana Hoosiers 55.9 23.9  
Rutgers Scarlet Knights 45.5 21.9 Boxscore
Maryland Terrapins 54.5 22.7  
Nebraska Cornhuskers 53.5 19.8 Boxscore
@ Iowa Hawkeyes 46.5 20.6  
Illinois Fighting Illini 53.5 23.5 Boxscore
@ Northwestern Wildcats 46.5 21.7  
Michigan State Spartans 80.2 24.7 Boxscore
@ Penn State Nittany Lions 19.8 15.8  
Ball State Cardinals 30.7 20.6 Boxscore
Bowling Green Falcons 69.3 27.3  
Northern Illinois Huskies 53.5 26.6 Boxscore
@ Western Michigan Broncos 46.5 25.4  
Buffalo Bulls 62.4 26.5 Boxscore
@ Massachusetts Minutemen 37.6 22.5  
Akron Zips 63.4 25.5 Boxscore
@ Kent State Golden Flashes 36.6 20.9  
Ohio Bobcats 65.3 24.4 Boxscore
@ Miami (OH) RedHawks 34.7 18.4  
Toledo Rockets 83.2 29.7 Boxscore
@ Eastern Michigan Eagles 16.8 18.4  
BYU Cougars 34.7 24.8 Boxscore
California Golden Bears 65.3 27.1  
Stanford Cardinal 36.6 20.1 Boxscore
UCLA Bruins 63.4 24.9  
Arizona State Sun Devils 43.6 22.3 Boxscore
Arizona Wildcats 56.4 25.8  
Notre Dame Fighting Irish 45.0 23.5 Boxscore
USC Trojans 55.0 25.8  
Washington Huskies 56.4 28.0 Boxscore
@ Washington State Cougars 43.6 26.8  
Utah Utes 80.2 27.4 Boxscore
@ Colorado Buffaloes 19.8 18.9  
Oregon Ducks 82.7 32.1 Boxscore
@ Oregon State Beavers 17.3 21.2  
Auburn Tigers 46.5 20.8 Boxscore
Alabama Crimson Tide 53.5 23.4  
Arkansas Razorbacks 48.5 20.2 Boxscore
Missouri Tigers 51.5 21.2  
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 48.5 22.0 Boxscore
Georgia Bulldogs 51.5 23.7  
Mississippi State Bulldogs 51.0 21.7 Boxscore
@ Ole Miss Rebels 49.0 21.2  
LSU Tigers 57.4 23.7 Boxscore
@ Texas A&M Aggies 42.6 21.7  
Tennessee Volunteers 77.2 24.0 Boxscore
@ Vanderbilt Commodores 22.8 14.7  
Kansas Jayhawks 18.8 17.6 Boxscore
Kansas State Wildcats 81.2 28.9  
Texas Tech Red Raiders 28.7 24.7 Boxscore
vs. Baylor Bears 71.3 33.3  
TCU Horned Frogs 70.3 26.2 Boxscore
@ Texas Longhorns 29.7 18.3  
West Virginia Mountaineers 71.8 30.0 Boxscore
@ Iowa State Cyclones 28.2 21.7  
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 17.8 26.1 Boxscore
Marshall Thundering Herd 82.2 36.1  
Rice Owls 40.6 22.8 Boxscore
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 59.4 24.0  
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 49.5 25.8 Boxscore
UTEP Miners 50.5 26.4  
North Texas Mean Green 56.4 21.6 Boxscore
@ UTSA Roadrunners 43.6 19.4  
UAB Blazers 59.4 29.7 Boxscore
@ Southern Miss Golden Eagles 40.6 26.8  
Old Dominion Monarchs 59.4 29.0 Boxscore
@ Florida Atlantic Owls 40.6 26.4  
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 36.6 25.4 Boxscore
Fresno State Bulldogs 63.4 28.4  
San Jose State Spartans 39.6 23.2 Boxscore
San Diego State Aztecs 60.4 27.3  
Utah State Aggies 44.6 24.9 Boxscore
Boise State Broncos 55.4 26.7  
Wyoming Cowboys 46.5 25.3 Boxscore
New Mexico Lobos 53.5 27.2  
Colorado State Rams 61.4 27.9 Boxscore
@ Air Force Falcons 38.6 24.2  
Nevada Wolf Pack 61.4 27.6 Boxscore
@ UNLV Rebels 38.6 22.4  
New Mexico State Aggies 32.7 22.4 Boxscore
Arkansas State Red Wolves 67.3 28.9  
Idaho Vandals 33.2 21.6 Boxscore
Appalachian State Mountaineers 66.8 28.8  
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 45.5 22.3 Boxscore
Georgia Southern Eagles 54.5 25.5  
Navy Midshipmen 55.4 24.3 Boxscore
@ South Alabama Jaguars 44.6 21.6  
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns 73.3 29.1 Boxscore
@ Troy Trojans 26.7 20.5  
Texas State Bobcats 80.2 31.6 Boxscore
@ Georgia State Panthers 19.8 19.1  
Connecticut Huskies 26.7 17.8 Boxscore
Memphis Tigers 73.3 25.2  
Cincinnati Bearcats 57.4 27.8 Boxscore
@ Temple Owls 42.6 25.2  
UCF Knights 58.9 22.9 Boxscore
@ South Florida Bulls 41.1 20.9  
Houston Cougars 73.3 28.0 Boxscore
@ SMU Mustangs 26.7 17.7  
East Carolina Pirates 72.8 32.4 Boxscore
@ Tulsa Golden Hurricane 27.2 23.3  

For additional statistics, view our weekly college football predictions.



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