Major League Baseball

Three reasons to watch the Baltimore Orioles in 2015

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 7:59 p.m. ET

share

facebookxredditlink

foxsports

Remember a few years ago when the Red Sox and the Yankees, with all their money and all their brains, were going to rule the American League East for as long as anyone could possibly imagine? Yeah. That was kinda cute.

Over the past three years, the Baltimore Orioles have won 274 games: 10 more than the Yankees and 37 more than the Red Sox (oh, and 15 more than the Rays and 44 more than the Blue Jays, for you obsessive completists in the audience).

The AL East is looking highly competitive this season ... but once again, the Orioles aren'™t "œfavored" in many quarters. Is that fair? Hey, the numbers are what they are, and we'™re not usually going to be smarter than them. The Orioles have outsmarted (or outplayed) the numbers before, though. Speaking of which, here are three relevant reasons to watch them try again in 2015...

1. Regression: It cuts both ways!
Well, maybe not in this case. Consider, though ... In 2013, Chris Davis led the American League with FIFTY-THREE home runs and 138 RBI, and finished third in Most Valuable Player balloting. Also in 2013, part-timer Steve Pearce got into 44 games and batted .261/.362/.420 ... which actually bettered his previous career percentages by a fair amount. You would love to have a cheap fifth outfielder with those numbers, especially if he didn'™t mind pinch-hitting. Only problem was that Pearce seemed a bit over his head.

In 2014, Pearce got into 102 games and batted .293/.373/.556, with a .404 wOBA that ranked third in the AL among hitters with at least 350 plate appearances. One can just wonder how good the Orioles would have been -- and of course they were pretty damn good anyway --“ if Davis hadn'™t fallen off a statistical cliff, dropping from fourth in wOBA (among qualified hitters) in the league in 2013 to 64th last year.

Experience suggests that Davis will rebound this season, while Pearce will struggle to justify all the playing time he seemed to earn last season. But these are living, dynamic creatures we'™re talking about. Or if you prefer, living, dynamic data points. But they'™re points, not statistically significant samples. Since we can'™t assume they'™ll regress -- and remember, regression works in both directions --“ let'™s watch and maybe get an interesting surprise.

2. Comeback Kids!
Okay, so Matt Wieters isn'™t exactly a kid anymore. Can you believe he'™ll turn 29 this spring? He'™s past his prime! As a baseball player, anyway. You know, theoretically. In terms of data points and stuff. But remember how recently Wieters was one of the best catchers in the majors? From 2011 through '13, he led MLB's full-time catchers (sorry, Mike Napoli) with 67 home runs. There were a couple of Gold Gloves in there, too. Last year, Wieters was off to a great start before suffering an elbow injury that necessitated Tommy John surgery in June. Because Wieters isn'™t a pitcher, his recovery'™s on a slightly different timetable, and the Orioles are hoping he'™s their Opening Day catcher.

Meanwhile, third baseman Manny Machado really is a kid, still. He was an All-Star and Gold Glover in 2013, but is still only 22. Of course, his 2014 didn'™t go so well, as Machado missed the last two months of the season after a second-in-his-young-career knee surgery. Happily, Machado's even farther along in his recovery than Wieters, at least if you believe the reports from Florida this spring. Will he establish (or if you prefer, reestablish himself as a superstar? This is why we watch.

3. Pythagoras? Did he play the drums with Weather Report?
No, the forecasts for the 2015 O's aren'™t rosy. But we'™re going on five-plus years of the Orioles outperforming forecasts and projections. Buck Showalter's managed the Orioles for four full seasons, and they've won 15 more games than their runs scored and allowed would have suggested. Granted, 11 of those came in 2013, when the O's had that miraculous record in one-run games. On the other hand, in 2010 Showalter took over a pitiful 32-73 team in August and brought it home at 34-23, one of the more dramatic turnarounds in living memory.

You can bet on the numbers, or you can bet on Buck Showalter. I would bet on the numbers. But there'™s a pretty good reason I don'™t bet.

2014 record: 96-66
Playoffs: Lost to Kansas City Royals (4-0) in ALCS
Projected 2015 record: 79-83*
Key additions: OF Travis Snider, C J.P. Arencibia
Key subtractions: OF Nick Markakis, OF/DH Nelson Cruz, RP Andrew Miller, IF Kelly Johnson

*Projected records courtesy of Fangraphs

Remember a few years ago when the Red Sox and the Yankees, with all their money and all their brains, were going to rule the American League East for as long as anyone could possibly imagine? Yeah. That was kinda cute.

Over the past three years, the Baltimore Orioles have won 274 games: 10 more than the Yankees and 37 more than the Red Sox (oh, and 15 more than the Rays and 44 more than the Blue Jays, for you obsessive completists in the audience).

The AL East is looking highly competitive this season ... but once again, the Orioles aren'€™t "€œfavored"€ in many quarters. Is that fair? Hey, the numbers are what they are, and we'€™re not usually going to be smarter than them. The Orioles have outsmarted (or outplayed) the numbers before, though. Speaking of which, here are three relevant reasons to watch them try again in 2015...

1. Regression: It cuts both ways!

Well, maybe not in this case. Consider, though ... In 2013, Chris Davis led the American League with FIFTY-THREE home runs and 138 RBI, and finished third in Most Valuable Player balloting. Also in 2013, part-timer Steve Pearce got into 44 games and batted .261/.362/.420 ... which actually bettered his previous career percentages by a fair amount. You would love to have a cheap fifth outfielder with those numbers, especially if he didn'€™t mind pinch-hitting. Only problem was that Pearce seemed a bit over his head.

In 2014, Pearce got into 102 games and batted .293/.373/.556, with a .404 wOBA that ranked third in the AL among hitters with at least 350 plate appearances. One can just wonder how good the Orioles would have been --€“ and of course they were pretty damn good anyway --€“ if Davis hadn'€™t fallen off a statistical cliff, dropping from fourth in wOBA (among qualified hitters) in the league in 2013 to 64th last year.

Experience suggests that Davis will rebound this season, while Pearce will struggle to justify all the playing time he seemed to earn last season. But these are living, dynamic creatures we'€™re talking about. Or if you prefer, living, dynamic data points. But they'€™re points, not statistically significant samples. Since we can'€™t assume they'€™ll regress --€“ and remember, regression works in both directions --€“ let'€™s watch and maybe get an interesting surprise.

2. Comeback Kids!

Okay, so Matt Wieters isn'€™t exactly a kid anymore. Can you believe he'€™ll turn 29 this spring? He'€™s past his prime! As a baseball player, anyway. You know, theoretically. In terms of data points and stuff. But remember how recently Wieters was one of the best catchers in the majors? From 2011 through '€™13, he led MLB's full-time catchers (sorry, Mike Napoli) with 67 home runs. There were a couple of Gold Gloves in there, too. Last year, Wieters was off to a great start before suffering an elbow injury that necessitated Tommy John surgery in June. Because Wieters isn'€™t a pitcher, his recovery'€™s on a slightly different timetable, and the Orioles are hoping he'€™s their Opening Day catcher.

Meanwhile, third baseman Manny Machado really is a kid, still. He was an All-Star and Gold Glover in 2013, but is still only 22. Of course, his 2014 didn'€™t go so well, as Machado missed the last two months of the season after a second-in-his-young-career knee surgery. Happily, Machado'€™s even farther along in his recovery than Wieters, at least if you believe the reports from Florida this spring. Will he establish (or if you prefer, reestablish himself as a superstar? This is why we watch.

3. Pythagoras? Did he play the drums with Weather Report?

No, the forecasts for the 2015 O'€™s aren'€™t rosy. But we'€™re going on five-plus years of the Orioles outperforming forecasts and projections. Buck Showalter'€™s managed the Orioles for four full seasons, and they'€™ve won 15 more games than their runs scored and allowed would have suggested. Granted, 11 of those came in 2013, when the O'€™s had that miraculous record in one-run games. On the other hand, in 2010 Showalter took over a pitiful 32-73 team in August and brought it home at 34-23, one of the more dramatic turnarounds in living memory.

You can bet on the numbers, or you can bet on Buck Showalter. I would bet on the numbers. But there'€™s a pretty good reason I don'€™t bet.

Baltimore Orioles

2014 record: 96-66

Playoffs: Lost to Kansas City Royals (4-0) in ALCS

Projected 2015 record: 79-83*

Key additions: OF Travis Snider, C J.P. Arencibia

Key subtractions: OF Nick Markakis, OF Nelson Cruz, RP Andrew Miller, IF Kelly Johnson

*Projected records courtesy of Fangraphs

Remember a few years ago when the Red Sox and the Yankees, with all their money and all their brains, were going to rule the American League East for as long as anyone could possibly imagine? Yeah. That was kinda cute.

Over the past three years, the Baltimore Orioles have won 274 games: 10 more than the Yankees and 37 more than the Red Sox (oh, and 15 more than the Rays and 44 more than the Blue Jays, for you obsessive completists in the audience).

The AL East is looking highly competitive this season ... but once again, the Orioles aren'€™t "€œfavored"€ in many quarters. Is that fair? Hey, the numbers are what they are, and we'€™re not usually going to be smarter than them. The Orioles have outsmarted (or outplayed) the numbers before, though. Speaking of which, here are three relevant reasons to watch them try again in 2015...

1. Regression: It cuts both ways!

Well, maybe not in this case. Consider, though ... In 2013, Chris Davis led the American League with FIFTY-THREE home runs and 138 RBI, and finished third in Most Valuable Player balloting. Also in 2013, part-timer Steve Pearce got into 44 games and batted .261/.362/.420 ... which actually bettered his previous career percentages by a fair amount. You would love to have a cheap fifth outfielder with those numbers, especially if he didn'€™t mind pinch-hitting. Only problem was that Pearce seemed a bit over his head.

In 2014, Pearce got into 102 games and batted .293/.373/.556, with a .404 wOBA that ranked third in the AL among hitters with at least 350 plate appearances. One can just wonder how good the Orioles would have been --€“ and of course they were pretty damn good anyway --€“ if Davis hadn'€™t fallen off a statistical cliff, dropping from fourth in wOBA (among qualified hitters) in the league in 2013 to 64th last year.

Experience suggests that Davis will rebound this season, while Pearce will struggle to justify all the playing time he seemed to earn last season. But these are living, dynamic creatures we'€™re talking about. Or if you prefer, living, dynamic data points. But they'€™re points, not statistically significant samples. Since we can'€™t assume they'€™ll regress --€“ and remember, regression works in both directions --€“ let'€™s watch and maybe get an interesting surprise.

2. Comeback Kids!

Okay, so Matt Wieters isn'€™t exactly a kid anymore. Can you believe he'€™ll turn 29 this spring? He'€™s past his prime! As a baseball player, anyway. You know, theoretically. In terms of data points and stuff. But remember how recently Wieters was one of the best catchers in the majors? From 2011 through '€™13, he led MLB's full-time catchers (sorry, Mike Napoli) with 67 home runs. There were a couple of Gold Gloves in there, too. Last year, Wieters was off to a great start before suffering an elbow injury that necessitated Tommy John surgery in June. Because Wieters isn'€™t a pitcher, his recovery'€™s on a slightly different timetable, and the Orioles are hoping he'€™s their Opening Day catcher.

Meanwhile, third baseman Manny Machado really is a kid, still. He was an All-Star and Gold Glover in 2013, but is still only 22. Of course, his 2014 didn'€™t go so well, as Machado missed the last two months of the season after a second-in-his-young-career knee surgery. Happily, Machado'€™s even farther along in his recovery than Wieters, at least if you believe the reports from Florida this spring. Will he establish (or if you prefer, reestablish himself as a superstar? This is why we watch.

3. Pythagoras? Did he play the drums with Weather Report?

No, the forecasts for the 2015 O'€™s aren'€™t rosy. But we'€™re going on five-plus years of the Orioles outperforming forecasts and projections. Buck Showalter'€™s managed the Orioles for four full seasons, and they'€™ve won 15 more games than their runs scored and allowed would have suggested. Granted, 11 of those came in 2013, when the O'€™s had that miraculous record in one-run games. On the other hand, in 2010 Showalter took over a pitiful 32-73 team in August and brought it home at 34-23, one of the more dramatic turnarounds in living memory.

You can bet on the numbers, or you can bet on Buck Showalter. I would bet on the numbers. But there'€™s a pretty good reason I don'€™t bet.

Baltimore Orioles

2014 record: 96-66

Playoffs: Lost to Kansas City Royals (4-0) in ALCS

Projected 2015 record: 79-83*

Key additions: OF Travis Snider, C J.P. Arencibia

Key subtractions: OF Nick Markakis, OF Nelson Cruz, RP Andrew Miller, IF Kelly Johnson

*Projected records courtesy of Fangraphs

Remember a few years ago when the Red Sox and the Yankees, with all their money and all their brains, were going to rule the American League East for as long as anyone could possibly imagine? Yeah. That was kinda cute.

Over the past three years, the Baltimore Orioles have won 274 games: 10 more than the Yankees and 37 more than the Red Sox (oh, and 15 more than the Rays and 44 more than the Blue Jays, for you obsessive completists in the audience).

The AL East is looking highly competitive this season ... but once again, the Orioles aren'€™t "€œfavored"€ in many quarters. Is that fair? Hey, the numbers are what they are, and we'€™re not usually going to be smarter than them. The Orioles have outsmarted (or outplayed) the numbers before, though. Speaking of which, here are three relevant reasons to watch them try again in 2015...

1. Regression: It cuts both ways!

Well, maybe not in this case. Consider, though ... In 2013, Chris Davis led the American League with FIFTY-THREE home runs and 138 RBI, and finished third in Most Valuable Player balloting. Also in 2013, part-timer Steve Pearce got into 44 games and batted .261/.362/.420 ... which actually bettered his previous career percentages by a fair amount. You would love to have a cheap fifth outfielder with those numbers, especially if he didn'€™t mind pinch-hitting. Only problem was that Pearce seemed a bit over his head.

In 2014, Pearce got into 102 games and batted .293/.373/.556, with a .404 wOBA that ranked third in the AL among hitters with at least 350 plate appearances. One can just wonder how good the Orioles would have been --€“ and of course they were pretty damn good anyway --€“ if Davis hadn'€™t fallen off a statistical cliff, dropping from fourth in wOBA (among qualified hitters) in the league in 2013 to 64th last year.

Experience suggests that Davis will rebound this season, while Pearce will struggle to justify all the playing time he seemed to earn last season. But these are living, dynamic creatures we'€™re talking about. Or if you prefer, living, dynamic data points. But they'€™re points, not statistically significant samples. Since we can'€™t assume they'€™ll regress --€“ and remember, regression works in both directions --€“ let'€™s watch and maybe get an interesting surprise.

2. Comeback Kids!

Okay, so Matt Wieters isn'€™t exactly a kid anymore. Can you believe he'€™ll turn 29 this spring? He'€™s past his prime! As a baseball player, anyway. You know, theoretically. In terms of data points and stuff. But remember how recently Wieters was one of the best catchers in the majors? From 2011 through '€™13, he led MLB's full-time catchers (sorry, Mike Napoli) with 67 home runs. There were a couple of Gold Gloves in there, too. Last year, Wieters was off to a great start before suffering an elbow injury that necessitated Tommy John surgery in June. Because Wieters isn'€™t a pitcher, his recovery'€™s on a slightly different timetable, and the Orioles are hoping he'€™s their Opening Day catcher.

Meanwhile, third baseman Manny Machado really is a kid, still. He was an All-Star and Gold Glover in 2013, but is still only 22. Of course, his 2014 didn'€™t go so well, as Machado missed the last two months of the season after a second-in-his-young-career knee surgery. Happily, Machado'€™s even farther along in his recovery than Wieters, at least if you believe the reports from Florida this spring. Will he establish (or if you prefer, reestablish himself as a superstar? This is why we watch.

3. Pythagoras? Did he play the drums with Weather Report?

No, the forecasts for the 2015 O'€™s aren'€™t rosy. But we'€™re going on five-plus years of the Orioles outperforming forecasts and projections. Buck Showalter'€™s managed the Orioles for four full seasons, and they'€™ve won 15 more games than their runs scored and allowed would have suggested. Granted, 11 of those came in 2013, when the O'€™s had that miraculous record in one-run games. On the other hand, in 2010 Showalter took over a pitiful 32-73 team in August and brought it home at 34-23, one of the more dramatic turnarounds in living memory.

You can bet on the numbers, or you can bet on Buck Showalter. I would bet on the numbers. But there'€™s a pretty good reason I don'€™t bet.

Baltimore Orioles

2014 record: 96-66

Playoffs: Lost to Kansas City Royals (4-0) in ALCS

Projected 2015 record: 79-83*

Key additions: OF Travis Snider, C J.P. Arencibia

Key subtractions: OF Nick Markakis, OF Nelson Cruz, RP Andrew Miller, IF Kelly Johnson

*Projected records courtesy of Fangraphs

Remember a few years ago when the Red Sox and the Yankees, with all their money and all their brains, were going to rule the American League East for as long as anyone could possibly imagine? Yeah. That was kinda cute.

Over the past three years, the Baltimore Orioles have won 274 games: 10 more than the Yankees and 37 more than the Red Sox (oh, and 15 more than the Rays and 44 more than the Blue Jays, for you obsessive completists in the audience).

The AL East is looking highly competitive this season ... but once again, the Orioles aren'€™t "€œfavored"€ in many quarters. Is that fair? Hey, the numbers are what they are, and we'€™re not usually going to be smarter than them. The Orioles have outsmarted (or outplayed) the numbers before, though. Speaking of which, here are three relevant reasons to watch them try again in 2015...

1. Regression: It cuts both ways!

Well, maybe not in this case. Consider, though ... In 2013, Chris Davis led the American League with FIFTY-THREE home runs and 138 RBI, and finished third in Most Valuable Player balloting. Also in 2013, part-timer Steve Pearce got into 44 games and batted .261/.362/.420 ... which actually bettered his previous career percentages by a fair amount. You would love to have a cheap fifth outfielder with those numbers, especially if he didn'€™t mind pinch-hitting. Only problem was that Pearce seemed a bit over his head.

In 2014, Pearce got into 102 games and batted .293/.373/.556, with a .404 wOBA that ranked third in the AL among hitters with at least 350 plate appearances. One can just wonder how good the Orioles would have been --€“ and of course they were pretty damn good anyway --€“ if Davis hadn'€™t fallen off a statistical cliff, dropping from fourth in wOBA (among qualified hitters) in the league in 2013 to 64th last year.

Experience suggests that Davis will rebound this season, while Pearce will struggle to justify all the playing time he seemed to earn last season. But these are living, dynamic creatures we'€™re talking about. Or if you prefer, living, dynamic data points. But they'€™re points, not statistically significant samples. Since we can'€™t assume they'€™ll regress --€“ and remember, regression works in both directions --€“ let'€™s watch and maybe get an interesting surprise.

2. Comeback Kids!

Okay, so Matt Wieters isn'€™t exactly a kid anymore. Can you believe he'€™ll turn 29 this spring? He'€™s past his prime! As a baseball player, anyway. You know, theoretically. In terms of data points and stuff. But remember how recently Wieters was one of the best catchers in the majors? From 2011 through '€™13, he led MLB's full-time catchers (sorry, Mike Napoli) with 67 home runs. There were a couple of Gold Gloves in there, too. Last year, Wieters was off to a great start before suffering an elbow injury that necessitated Tommy John surgery in June. Because Wieters isn'€™t a pitcher, his recovery'€™s on a slightly different timetable, and the Orioles are hoping he'€™s their Opening Day catcher.

Meanwhile, third baseman Manny Machado really is a kid, still. He was an All-Star and Gold Glover in 2013, but is still only 22. Of course, his 2014 didn'€™t go so well, as Machado missed the last two months of the season after a second-in-his-young-career knee surgery. Happily, Machado'€™s even farther along in his recovery than Wieters, at least if you believe the reports from Florida this spring. Will he establish (or if you prefer, reestablish himself as a superstar? This is why we watch.

3. Pythagoras? Did he play the drums with Weather Report?

No, the forecasts for the 2015 O'€™s aren'€™t rosy. But we'€™re going on five-plus years of the Orioles outperforming forecasts and projections. Buck Showalter'€™s managed the Orioles for four full seasons, and they'€™ve won 15 more games than their runs scored and allowed would have suggested. Granted, 11 of those came in 2013, when the O'€™s had that miraculous record in one-run games. On the other hand, in 2010 Showalter took over a pitiful 32-73 team in August and brought it home at 34-23, one of the more dramatic turnarounds in living memory.

You can bet on the numbers, or you can bet on Buck Showalter. I would bet on the numbers. But there'€™s a pretty good reason I don'€™t bet.

Baltimore Orioles

2014 record: 96-66

Playoffs: Lost to Kansas City Royals (4-0) in ALCS

Projected 2015 record: 79-83*

Key additions: OF Travis Snider, C J.P. Arencibia

Key subtractions: OF Nick Markakis, OF Nelson Cruz, RP Andrew Miller, IF Kelly Johnson

*Projected records courtesy of Fangraphs

Remember a few years ago when the Red Sox and the Yankees, with all their money and all their brains, were going to rule the American League East for as long as anyone could possibly imagine? Yeah. That was kinda cute.

Over the past three years, the Baltimore Orioles have won 274 games: 10 more than the Yankees and 37 more than the Red Sox (oh, and 15 more than the Rays and 44 more than the Blue Jays, for you obsessive completists in the audience).

The AL East is looking highly competitive this season ... but once again, the Orioles aren'€™t "€œfavored"€ in many quarters. Is that fair? Hey, the numbers are what they are, and we'€™re not usually going to be smarter than them. The Orioles have outsmarted (or outplayed) the numbers before, though. Speaking of which, here are three relevant reasons to watch them try again in 2015...

1. Regression: It cuts both ways!

Well, maybe not in this case. Consider, though ... In 2013, Chris Davis led the American League with FIFTY-THREE home runs and 138 RBI, and finished third in Most Valuable Player balloting. Also in 2013, part-timer Steve Pearce got into 44 games and batted .261/.362/.420 ... which actually bettered his previous career percentages by a fair amount. You would love to have a cheap fifth outfielder with those numbers, especially if he didn'€™t mind pinch-hitting. Only problem was that Pearce seemed a bit over his head.

In 2014, Pearce got into 102 games and batted .293/.373/.556, with a .404 wOBA that ranked third in the AL among hitters with at least 350 plate appearances. One can just wonder how good the Orioles would have been --€“ and of course they were pretty damn good anyway --€“ if Davis hadn'€™t fallen off a statistical cliff, dropping from fourth in wOBA (among qualified hitters) in the league in 2013 to 64th last year.

Experience suggests that Davis will rebound this season, while Pearce will struggle to justify all the playing time he seemed to earn last season. But these are living, dynamic creatures we'€™re talking about. Or if you prefer, living, dynamic data points. But they'€™re points, not statistically significant samples. Since we can'€™t assume they'€™ll regress --€“ and remember, regression works in both directions --€“ let'€™s watch and maybe get an interesting surprise.

2. Comeback Kids!

Okay, so Matt Wieters isn'€™t exactly a kid anymore. Can you believe he'€™ll turn 29 this spring? He'€™s past his prime! As a baseball player, anyway. You know, theoretically. In terms of data points and stuff. But remember how recently Wieters was one of the best catchers in the majors? From 2011 through '€™13, he led MLB's full-time catchers (sorry, Mike Napoli) with 67 home runs. There were a couple of Gold Gloves in there, too. Last year, Wieters was off to a great start before suffering an elbow injury that necessitated Tommy John surgery in June. Because Wieters isn'€™t a pitcher, his recovery'€™s on a slightly different timetable, and the Orioles are hoping he'€™s their Opening Day catcher.

Meanwhile, third baseman Manny Machado really is a kid, still. He was an All-Star and Gold Glover in 2013, but is still only 22. Of course, his 2014 didn'€™t go so well, as Machado missed the last two months of the season after a second-in-his-young-career knee surgery. Happily, Machado'€™s even farther along in his recovery than Wieters, at least if you believe the reports from Florida this spring. Will he establish (or if you prefer, reestablish himself as a superstar? This is why we watch.

3. Pythagoras? Did he play the drums with Weather Report?

No, the forecasts for the 2015 O'€™s aren'€™t rosy. But we'€™re going on five-plus years of the Orioles outperforming forecasts and projections. Buck Showalter'€™s managed the Orioles for four full seasons, and they'€™ve won 15 more games than their runs scored and allowed would have suggested. Granted, 11 of those came in 2013, when the O'€™s had that miraculous record in one-run games. On the other hand, in 2010 Showalter took over a pitiful 32-73 team in August and brought it home at 34-23, one of the more dramatic turnarounds in living memory.

You can bet on the numbers, or you can bet on Buck Showalter. I would bet on the numbers. But there'€™s a pretty good reason I don'€™t bet.

Baltimore Orioles

2014 record: 96-66

Playoffs: Lost to Kansas City Royals (4-0) in ALCS

Projected 2015 record: 79-83*

Key additions: OF Travis Snider, C J.P. Arencibia

Key subtractions: OF Nick Markakis, OF Nelson Cruz, RP Andrew Miller, IF Kelly Johnson

*Projected records courtesy of Fangraphs

Remember a few years ago when the Red Sox and the Yankees, with all their money and all their brains, were going to rule the American League East for as long as anyone could possibly imagine? Yeah. That was kinda cute.

Over the past three years, the Baltimore Orioles have won 274 games: 10 more than the Yankees and 37 more than the Red Sox (oh, and 15 more than the Rays and 44 more than the Blue Jays, for you obsessive completists in the audience).

The AL East is looking highly competitive this season ... but once again, the Orioles aren'€™t "€œfavored"€ in many quarters. Is that fair? Hey, the numbers are what they are, and we'€™re not usually going to be smarter than them. The Orioles have outsmarted (or outplayed) the numbers before, though. Speaking of which, here are three relevant reasons to watch them try again in 2015...

1. Regression: It cuts both ways!

Well, maybe not in this case. Consider, though ... In 2013, Chris Davis led the American League with FIFTY-THREE home runs and 138 RBI, and finished third in Most Valuable Player balloting. Also in 2013, part-timer Steve Pearce got into 44 games and batted .261/.362/.420 ... which actually bettered his previous career percentages by a fair amount. You would love to have a cheap fifth outfielder with those numbers, especially if he didn'€™t mind pinch-hitting. Only problem was that Pearce seemed a bit over his head.

In 2014, Pearce got into 102 games and batted .293/.373/.556, with a .404 wOBA that ranked third in the AL among hitters with at least 350 plate appearances. One can just wonder how good the Orioles would have been --€“ and of course they were pretty damn good anyway --€“ if Davis hadn'€™t fallen off a statistical cliff, dropping from fourth in wOBA (among qualified hitters) in the league in 2013 to 64th last year.

Experience suggests that Davis will rebound this season, while Pearce will struggle to justify all the playing time he seemed to earn last season. But these are living, dynamic creatures we'€™re talking about. Or if you prefer, living, dynamic data points. But they'€™re points, not statistically significant samples. Since we can'€™t assume they'€™ll regress --€“ and remember, regression works in both directions --€“ let'€™s watch and maybe get an interesting surprise.

2. Comeback Kids!

Okay, so Matt Wieters isn'€™t exactly a kid anymore. Can you believe he'€™ll turn 29 this spring? He'€™s past his prime! As a baseball player, anyway. You know, theoretically. In terms of data points and stuff. But remember how recently Wieters was one of the best catchers in the majors? From 2011 through '€™13, he led MLB's full-time catchers (sorry, Mike Napoli) with 67 home runs. There were a couple of Gold Gloves in there, too. Last year, Wieters was off to a great start before suffering an elbow injury that necessitated Tommy John surgery in June. Because Wieters isn'€™t a pitcher, his recovery'€™s on a slightly different timetable, and the Orioles are hoping he'€™s their Opening Day catcher.

Meanwhile, third baseman Manny Machado really is a kid, still. He was an All-Star and Gold Glover in 2013, but is still only 22. Of course, his 2014 didn'€™t go so well, as Machado missed the last two months of the season after a second-in-his-young-career knee surgery. Happily, Machado'€™s even farther along in his recovery than Wieters, at least if you believe the reports from Florida this spring. Will he establish (or if you prefer, reestablish himself as a superstar? This is why we watch.

3. Pythagoras? Did he play the drums with Weather Report?

No, the forecasts for the 2015 O'€™s aren'€™t rosy. But we'€™re going on five-plus years of the Orioles outperforming forecasts and projections. Buck Showalter'€™s managed the Orioles for four full seasons, and they'€™ve won 15 more games than their runs scored and allowed would have suggested. Granted, 11 of those came in 2013, when the O'€™s had that miraculous record in one-run games. On the other hand, in 2010 Showalter took over a pitiful 32-73 team in August and brought it home at 34-23, one of the more dramatic turnarounds in living memory.

You can bet on the numbers, or you can bet on Buck Showalter. I would bet on the numbers. But there'€™s a pretty good reason I don'€™t bet.

Baltimore Orioles

2014 record: 96-66

Playoffs: Lost to Kansas City Royals (4-0) in ALCS

Projected 2015 record: 79-83*

Key additions: OF Travis Snider, C J.P. Arencibia

Key subtractions: OF Nick Markakis, OF Nelson Cruz, RP Andrew Miller, IF Kelly Johnson

*Projected records courtesy of Fangraphs

share

Get more from Major League Baseball Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more

in this topic

Major League Baseball