The third edition of The Quarters looks inside the ACC-Big Ten Challenge, the long-standing presence of the best defensive-minded programs, the early Naismith Watch and more around college basketball:
1 The No. 4 Duke Blue Devils started three freshmen in their first true road game of the season against the No. 2 team in the country and still strolled out of the Kohl Center with 80 points and a double-digit victory on Wednesday late. It looked too easy. Wisconsin coach Bo Ryan was left quipping about Globetrotters and Generals after the game, but he was dead serious when he said the Blue Devils are playing at a different level right now. When the coach of a top-five team, one that had already beaten four KenPom top-100 teams, is saying that, it's not good news for the rest of college basketball.
It's not like Mike Krzyzewski's team had not hinted at greatness before this clash in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge. Duke has beaten every opponent by at least 10 points this season, including Michigan State and Stanford. Wednesday night squashed any lingering doubts: this is an elite offensive team, the best college basketball has seen this season. And with those three phenomenal freshman -- Jahlil Okafor, Tyus Jones and Justise Winslow -- the trajectory is pointing up.
In terms of per possession effectiveness, there's not a team within a mile of Duke. The next closest? Wisconsin. The Badgers are scoring almost five fewer points per 100 possessions. That would be the largest gap between the first- and second-ranked offenses since the 2011 season, when Jared Sullinger's Ohio State Buckeyes put together a two-loss season en route to a No. 1 seed and Sweet Sixteen appearance.
This Duke team has similar regular-season potential and much, much higher postseason aspirations.
The Blue Devils scored 1.29 points per possession against the Badgers, shooting 65.2 percent from the floor, including seven 3-pointers. Defensively, their length and versatility allowed them to consistently switch on ball screens to throw off Ryan's trademark every-possession-matters offense.
Okafor took on National Player of the Year candidate Frank Kaminsky and, while he didn't take over the game, walked away with an impressive 13 points. Winslow remained quiet on the offensive end (other than this highlight), but it was the standout play of Jones, Quinn Cook and Rasheed Sulaimon in the backcourt that sealed their eighth win of the year. They can attack you in so many ways. When two projected top-10 draft picks (Okafor, Winslow) combine for just 19 points, they can start chipping away with excellent, aggressive guard play. When teams try to take away the 3-point line and play up on the guards, Okafor gets room to work and Winslow gets space to drive.
"We had all of their shots charted coming into this game. I would say they hit some tough shots, but they have good enough players that can do that at times. To have as many do it in the same night? That's just not fair. I don't care what anybody says. They were lights out," Ryan said. " ... They're better than us right now. No question."
So what did all of this mean on Wednesday night? After the Big Ten scraped out its fourth win of the past six seasons in this event, it looks like it is going to feature more quality depth from teams like Nebraska, Indiana, Minnesota and Iowa. It might be a stronger conference overall, but it's still a little early to tell.
Another main takeaway, however, is that the ACC's Big Three can match any conference's best. Yes, the Big Ten won the Challenge, but it did so on the strength of its lesser teams beating the ACC's lesser teams. In ranked-versus-ranked games, the ACC finished 4-0. And while it might be too early to throw No. 15 Miami, which beat No. 24 Illinois on Tuesday, up to the top of the conference heap, the ACC has to feel pretty good about Duke, Louisville and Virginia. Louisville went through some struggles on offense down the stretch, but, for the most part, the Cardinals looked like a far better team than No. 14 Ohio State. And while it came against an undermanned Maryland squad, Virginia's 11-point win in College Park was its best one yet.
With Wisconsin falling, do not be surprised if three of the nation's top six reside in the ACC standings. The Big Ten once again exposed some potential depth issues with the ACC -- early-season struggles for North Carolina and Syracuse are not helping matters -- but things aren't so bad. It's really, really early, but the ACC looks like it could be on its way to becoming the first conference since the Big East in 2010 to place three teams among the top eight seeds of the NCAA Tournament.
2 During his brief tenure as a New York Knicks assistant in the early 1980s, Rick Pitino was quickly educated on the value of numbers. There was no alternative route. Statistics were king during those formative seasons in Madison Square Garden.
"Any time you work for Hubie Brown, if you're not into that you go straight to hell," Pitino said of his former Hall of Fame mentor back at ACC Media Days. "Every little statistic is valid to Hubie Brown."
Pitino, with successful stints at Providence and Kentucky is his rearview, has his Louisville Cardinals cruising once again. The efficiency darlings of the decade -- the Cardinals have won the unofficial Ken Pomeroy title in each of the past two seasons -- didn't get there by mistake. Pitino took notes under Hubie. He's translated those notes into three decades of high pressure and fantastic success. He's using almost every possession-based analysis that's come to the forefront, calling KenPom's possession-based metrics "crucial" to his team's success.
"I was a head coach at 24, and (my full-court pressure) sort of evolved at that time. We were pressing at age 24 and now I'm 62," Pitino said. "I think you find out from the metrics what makes your system better as time goes on."
He found out something. He's molded the Cardinals into the preeminent defensive force in the college game. They've ranked in the top-10 in defensive efficiency among the 351 Division I teams in five of the past six seasons -- the best mark nationally. The Cardinals aren't alone, though. They lead a group of defensive mainstays that continue to drive opposing offenses mad: San Diego State, Virginia, Arizona ... teams that year after year grind their way toward March. Here's a look at which programs have logged the most seasons ranking top-10 in defensive efficiency over the past six years (including 2014-15 current rankings, ranking as of Wednesday's games in parentheses):
There are 10 other programs -- the likes of Syracuse, Saint Louis, Michigan State and Texas -- that are tied with two top-10 rankings since the turn of the decade. It's been well-documented that there's a strong correlation with playing good defense and getting good tournament results. Look at last season's defensive efficient rankings. Three of the top five teams ended up with No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament. UConn was not a top regional seed, but finished among the 10 best defensive teams and earned itself another national title.
Over the past 10 seasons, exactly half of the eventual NCAA tourney's No. 1 seeds (20 out of 40 top seeds) finished the season ranked in the top-10 in defensive efficiency. That's good news for the mainstays.
3 College basketball's rules committee turned back the clock in the offseason, and the results have been detrimental to the flow and consistency in the game. One season after moving toward the NBA's charge/block rules, the old rules -- the primary difference being that defenders do not have to establish position until the offensive player left the floor to shoot or pass, as opposed to when an offensive player initiateds his move -- are back in business.
Look no further than the Duke-Wisconsin showdown for the type of call that's plaguing the early-season college basketball schedule:
College basketball officials called that collision between Duke's Tyus Jones and Wisconsin's Josh Gasser a charge. This comes despite Gasser initiating contact by moving his feet forward and into Jones's path, who was attempting a euro-step around him. This is not an isolated incident. It's happening everywhere, defenders being rewarded for arriving late or initiating contact and falling down, particularly help defenders in the post sliding under offensive players. (And yes, there is a certain irony about writing about this rule with an example of a Duke player on offense.)
As a result, there have been catastrophic effects on scoring.
KPI Sports recently tracked Division I teams' average points per game through the first three weeks of the season, and returned with the ugly consequences. After averaging a 10-year high of 73.51 points per game last season, teams are now averaging 67.86. Offensive efficiency numbers are down universally. Mistakes were made.
4 Late Wednesday night, Utah became the first team since Doug McDermott and the Creighton Blue Jays to hand Wichita State a regular-season loss, ending all hope for the Shockers to post back-to-back undefeated seasons. The Shockers' loss came in excruciating fashion, too. After erasing a 58-51 lead with 1:13 to go, thanks to three consecutive 3-pointers, the Utes made two free throws to send it into overtime. In the extra period, All-American guard Fred Van Vleet missed the front end of a one-and-one while trailing by a single point. Wichita State could not come up with the subsequent loose ball and its reign of perfection was over.
The likelihood of perfection was slim anyways, but Utah was the toughest team on the schedule. Northern Iowa, Illinois State, Seton Hall and Alabama would have caused some problems, but a win over the Utes could have started the conversation all over again. Now, statistically speaking, the burden of perfection falls where it always has this season: No. 1 Kentucky. Pomeroy's metrics give the Wildcats a 4.3 percent chance of avoiding a loss ... despite Texas, UNC, UCLA and Louisville waiting on the non-conference docket alone.
With Wichita State ousted, there are now 22 teams remaining in Division I's undefeated club. Perfect regular-season records are, not surprisingly, rare. Before Wichita State pulled it off, the 2004 Saint Joseph's duo of Jameer Nelson and Delonte West was the last to pull it off. All the same, here are four teams outside of Kentucky worth tracking to see how long they can survive:
Duke: Heard of this team before? KenPom gives the Blue Devils a 0.9 percent chance of escaping without a loss, but it could be a while before they take one. Coach K & Co. get UConn next week, but the Huskies are still trying to find themselves with point guard Ryan Boatright and his supporting cast trying to fill new roles. Barring any major upset beforehand, a three-game stretch in January (NC State, Miami, Louisville) could make things interesting. After beating Duke in Cameron Indoor last season, a road test against defending ACC champion Virginia on Jan. 31 could get interesting. Target: Jan. 31, Virginia
Northern Iowa: Could the Panthers replace the Shockers atop the Missouri Valley standings? It's not likely, especially not without taking a couple losses. Northern Iowa is an efficient team that has already taken down Power 5 teams Virginia Tech and Northwestern and quality mid-major programs Stephen F. Austin and Richmond. The resume is excellent. Still, with upcoming non-conference matchups against VCU and Iowa, it's going to be tough. Worst of all: playing Wichita State twice. Target: Dec. 13, VCU
Villanova: The destruction of VCU and the thrilling win over Michigan are going to look great on Selection Sunday. The upcoming slate will continue to test the Wildcats, though. Four good-to-great games await before Big East plays gets under way -- Saint Joseph's, Illinois, Temple and Syracuse -- and the league looks much improved. Villanova rarely makes mistakes and plays tenacious defense, but don't be surprised if one particular team with athleticism and length gives them challenges in the scoring department. Target: Dec. 20, Syracuse
Gonzaga: If Mark Few's team gets by Arizona on Saturday, the Bulldogs' current odds of 0.4 percent are going to shoot up. After the road date with the Pac-12 powerhouse, the only truly worrisome teams left on the schedule are UCLA and BYU -- high-scoring squads that Gonzaga gets on the road. Then it's off to a West Coast Conference it annually owns. Still, if Gonzaga beats Arizona it will likely be a favored in every game the rest of the way. The problem: Sean Miller's Wildcats haven't lost a regular-season non-conference game since 2012. Target: Dec. 6, Arizona
PPG data from first 3 weeks of the season over last 10 years: http://t.co/die35k8hSI. @JayBilas pic.twitter.com/vBnFA6G9U1
— KPI Sports (@KPIsports) December 2, 2014
With November games in the books, it's time to unveil The Quarters' (Far Too Early) Naismith Watch. This is not, by any means, expected to be the final ballot when all is said and done. At this point, think of this as the September Heisman (shoutout Denard Robinson!), a recognition of non-conference production to date -- and nothing more.
For reference purposes, last season's inaugural Naismith Watch featured Duke's Jabari Parker, Oklahoma State's Marcus Smart, Creighton's Doug McDermott and UConn's Shabazz Napier. So maybe there's some correlation with great players starting fast: that four-man list (Parker was the first-edition leader) included the Naismith winner, another finalist and the Final Four MVP. Not bad. The 2014 early (early) frontrunners:
Ultimately, I went with Louisville's Montrezl Harrell, a monster on the interior that's coming into his own offensively and has proven himself as one of the best defensive players in college basketball. He sets the tempo and intensity for the fifth-ranked Cardinals. In the season's biggest matchup to date, Kaminsky and Okafor both played well enough considering the stage -- although Kaminsky finished with bigger counting numbers, Okafor was more efficient and I thought played better -- though neither was the best player for his own team. Kaminsky is having a great season on both ends of the floor and Okafor is in the middle of one of the best low-post seasons we've seen from a freshman in a long time. Pangos, Mr. Efficiency of the group, is just shooting the lights out and guiding a very, very good Gonzaga team right now.
Yes, there are plenty of others to choose from. Too many options. It's a long season and the cream always rises. Angel Rodriguez, Justin Anderson and Jerian Grant are off to excellent starts in the ACC. Boatright, Texas forward Johnathan Holmes, Arizona's Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Michigan's Caris LeVert have also stood out against high-level competition.
There were others under strong early consideration from mid-majors as well: Alan Williams (UC Santa Barbara), Wesley Saunders (Harvard), Brad Waldow (Saint Mary's), A.J. English (Iona), R.J. Hunter (Georgia State) and Melvin Johnson (VCU), among many others. Throw those six guys together and you have a top-10 team. Freshmen D'Angelo Russell (Ohio State) and Myles Turner (Texas) were also in the mix, and do not look like they're going away any time soon.
Terran Petteway, Nebraska: Not unlike many of his coaching peers, Tim Miles's most important recruit of his short-lived Nebraska tenure is a transfer. Watching Petteway take on Florida State on Monday night, two things immediately came to mind: (1) the 6-foot-6 standout is not yet playing his best basketball and (2) how in the world could Billy Gillispie not create a larger role for this guy at Texas Tech? Sure, Petteway has come along way, but he's become a steal for the Cornhuskers. He stays in attack mode always ... even if it's not the most efficient gear to be in at that particular moment. With four 20-point outings in six games, that philosophy looks like it'll keep producing big numbers.
Jerian Grant, Notre Dame: This may come as a surprise to some considering the graphic above and last season's circumstances, but Grant leads all players with 2.6 win shares thus far. He's having perhaps the quietest superstar season of any Power 5 conference player, averaging 19.5 points, 3.1 rebounds and seven assists per game. He was Notre Dame's lifeline against UMass and its best player against Providence. Against Michigan State on Wednesday night, he dominated yet again, pouring in 27 points and logging six assists.
Perhaps this shouldn't come as a complete surprise. A fun exercise (and potential black hole) is looking through KenPom's player similarity scores, and Grant has some star-studded company. Here are his most similar numerical comparisons for his first three seasons:
Perry Ellis, Kansas: On a team that features a projected three NBA draft picks -- Kelly Oubre, Cliff Alexander and Wayne Seldon -- it's Ellis that leads the team in usage rate, offensive efficiency and just general usefulness for Coach Billy Self. Since the Kentucky fiasco -- a game in which no Jayhawk outside of Oubre, who played just 13 minutes and has curiously seen very little time since, played well enough to even be considered "mediocre" -- Ellis has asserted himself. He's played second, third and fourth fiddle to the likes of Ben McLemore, Andrew Wiggins and Joel Embiid over the course of his career. Can he be Option A for a Kansas team looking to extend its string of dominance in the Big 12, which (don't look now) might be the best conference around?
(Quarters thoughts: If point guard Isaiah Taylor, who was off to a blistering start before breaking his wrist, can return for the better part of conference play, I like Texas in the Big 12. The Longhorns are a load to handle on the interior and Myles Turner should keep on improving. With a healthy Taylor, they are a Final Four contender that can snap the Jayhawks' decade-long reign.)
Back in 2006, George Mason started a nice trend, one that's spanned the past eight seasons with surprising regularity. Since that magical run, five non-power conference teams (Memphis, VCU, Wichita State and Butler twice) have made a Final Four appearances, missing the prestigious stage of the NCAA Tournament just three times. With that in mind, here's a look at the potential torch-bearers of that tradition, as well as some of the best stories outside the major conferences:
Craig Bradshaw, Belmont: Two seasons ago, Belmont coach Rick Byrd faced the tall task of replacing arguably the best player in program history and one of the five best shooters in the country, Ian Clark, and his sidekick Kerron Johnson. The two composed one of the best backcourts in the country and, for three straight seasons, led Byrd's Bruins to the NCAA Tournament. They fell short of Cinderella fireworks, but look at the reasons: Wisconsin, Georgetown and Arizona.
Clark still holds an NBA roster spot with the Utah Jazz. Johnson signed his second professional contract back in September to play this season in Germany. Banner years for mid-majors are difficult to replicate, a top-10 recruiting class isn't on its way to fill in the gaps.
Still, Byrd had senior J.J. Mann and his own sophomore sidekick, Craig Bradshaw, waiting in the wings. Four games into the 2013-14 season, Mann was already putting up 28 points in a win over North Carolina en route to a 26-win season and NIT appearance. Now it's Bradshaw's turn. With Belmont returning a freshman- and sophomore-heavy frontcourt, Byrd knew in the preseason that the strength of his team would be in its guard play. Bradshaw has responded with a 21.3 scoring average (13th nationally) while taking on a much heavier shooting load, including a offensive clinic that Clark, Johnson and Mann never quite matched.
Bradshaw poured in a Division I school-record 42 against Ohio, capping a destructive three-game stretch in which he averaged 33 points. He's taking 36 percent of Belmont's shots at the moment, which will likely drop as the season progresses but puts him right in the same breath as his predecessors right now:
Old Dominion: It didn't take long for Jeff Jones to revive the Old Dominion program following the curt dismissal of former coach Blaine Taylor with eight games remaining in the 2012-13 season. Before that forgettable season that ended with a 5-25 record, Taylor's Monarchs won at least 22 games in seven of the previous nine seasons, including three regular-season or conference titles over that stretch. Jones endured a .500 campaign last season and now the Monarchs (5-1) are back to business. They've already taken down Richmond, LSU and VCU -- five wins that will count on Selection Sunday -- with their only loss coming to KenPom top-100 team Illinois State.
The strange thing: Old Dominion doesn't do anything extraordinary. It's a defensive-minded team that does many things well, or at least decent, and few things poorly. The resume to date says NCAA Tournament contender, and at the very least the Monarchs' resurgence should make for an interesting Conference USA race with Louisiana Tech, UTEP, Charlotte and Western Kentucky.
Alan Williams, UC Santa Barbara: The "Best Player You've Never Heard Of" hype is starting to feel a bit dated. Williams is a college basketball star -- he just so happens to play in the Big West. He torched Kansas for 22 points, 13 rebounds and four blocks in the season opener. Last season it was UCLA and Cal that failed to shut him down. The 6-foot-8 senior is averaging 19.8 points and 13.5 rebounds, his third straight season averaging a double-double. This isn't small-conference stat-padding. Sure, the 33-plus usage rate always helps, but carrying a team isn't easy. If he can replicate his junior numbers, he is going to warrant All-American consideration.
Long Beach State: The schedule is daunting, and yet the 49ers are sitting pretty. Their four losses came at the hands of BYU, Xavier, UCLA and Washington, while the Division I wins are of similar quality: Kansas State, Western Michigan and a neutral-court revenge game against Xavier. Just how impressive is that 4-4 record? In terms of strength of schedule, Long Beach State owns the fourth-toughest schedule of any team to log at least one Division I win this season. And it owns four of them, matching another standout mid-major in Green Bay (via KenPom, entering Wednesday's games):
The 49ers are just one of those teams that create problems for Power 5 teams. They feature four seniors in the starting five, shoot the ball well from all over the floor (51.5 effective field goal percentage) and get to the free-throw line. With wins against the Big 12 and Big East already in their back pocket, the non-conference slate still features future opponents from the Mountain West, Big 12, Big East and ACC. This is looking like Dan Monson's best team since Casper Ware led the 49ers to the 2012 Big Dance. Consider that a warning, Power 5.
