When it comes to home-field advantage in college football,
statistics indicate the University of Wisconsin's Camp Randall Stadium is
second to none. Well, make that second to just one.
That's the word from Paul Bessire, general manager of PredictionMachine.com, a
website that mathematically models and analyzes sports. According to Bessire's
most recent calculations, Wisconsin has the second-best home-field advantage
among 120 Football Bowl Subdivision teams.
Bessire found the average advantage at home to be worth 3.8 points in college
football, but Wisconsin's edge came in at 8.4 points, second to only Oklahoma's
9.2.
But before Badgers fans go booking those trips to the national championship
game, beware of a significant caveat: Ranking near the top of this chart isn't
necessarily a good thing.
Bessire points out that Alabama and LSU are ranked 106th and 108th,
respectively, in home-field advantage. The numbers conclude that both teams
play just as well on the road as they do at home — typically a true measure for
teams consistently in the hunt for a national championship.
Although Wisconsin has thrived at home, the Badgers have struggled mightily in
road games, putting them a notch below top-tier college football teams. Since
Bret Bielema took over as Wisconsin's coach in 2006, for example, the Badgers
are 21-16 in games played away from Camp Randall Stadium, including bowl games.
During that same time, Wisconsin is 39-3 at home, going undefeated in four of
six seasons.
"Good teams can play like elite teams at home with good home-field
advantages," Bessire said. "Elite teams play like elite teams no
matter where they play. Wisconsin falls into that caliber that's usually pretty
good but not necessarily one of those teams that year-in and year-out is among
the elite. That's why the home field matters. That's why you see them more
subject to playing poorly on the road —- because they're not as consistent as
the elite teams are."
Bessire's analysis reviewed the home and road performances of every FBS team
dating back to 2000. The study used a program that conducted 50,000 simulations
of each season at home and on the road, relative to what would be expected if
the teams met on a neutral playing field.
A Janesville, Wis., native, Bessire said he grew up attending Wisconsin games
at Camp Randall Stadium, and he's seen first-hand the advantage the Badgers
have at home. But he notes that the mathematical data he obtained takes out any
personal bias.
"This is as objective as possible," said Bessire, who earned a
master's degree in quantitative analysis at the University of Cincinnati.
"I didn't do anything to manipulate the numbers. It just happened to be
that Wisconsin came up on top. In all honesty, my preference would be that
Wisconsin would be closer to LSU and Alabama. I'd know we'd be getting
consistent. Wisconsin is a team that is in the next tier but needs to play
better, to get a broader base of elite talent, to be one of those top four or
five teams that could go 12-0."
UCLA, Missouri and Nevada rounded out the top five in home-field advantage
after Oklahoma and Wisconsin. The rest of the Big Ten ranked as follows:
Michigan State (12th), Michigan (22nd), Iowa (33rd), Indiana (37th), Minnesota
(50th), Penn State (53rd), Purdue (56th), Illinois (61st), Ohio State (63rd),
Northwestern (65th) and Nebraska (102nd).
Bessire said his Predictalator typically offers predictions for upcoming
sporting events rather than looking backward — though his college football
home-field advantage study is an exception. A die-hard Badgers and Green Bay
Packers fan, Bessire said his crowning achievement in eight years of analyzing
sports was finishing 11-0 against the spread during the 2011 playoffs, which
culminated with the Packers winning the Super Bowl.
"That's what keeps people coming back to the site," Bessire said,
"especially during football season."
