If you're wondering why the mock draft industry has basically given up on nailing the Dallas Cowboys' pick each April, just take a look at the man pulling the trigger. Owner/general manager Jerry Jones loves this time of year because he's a born gambler.
With some owners and general managers (often two different people), trends emerge over the years. But as we discovered in the late 90s, Jerry might haul off and trade two first-round picks for a smallish wide receiver. That type of risk-taking may have helped him make a fortune in the oil and gas industry, but he's turned up a lot of dry holes in the draft.
The Cowboys owner said as recently as last offseason that no coach or player will end up on the roster without the approval of head coach Jason Garrett. And those of you who bought that line, please step forward and take your medicine.
In the fall, Jones has to occasionally take a backseat and let his coach call the plays. He'll show up on the sidelines to offer medical updates to unsuspecting team personnel but that's about it.
But save for the Jimmy Johnson and Bill Parcells eras, the draft has always been Jerry's domain. He grabs the phone each time the TV cameras offer non-revealing footage of the Cowboys' war room. The biggest problem for the organization is that Jones is sometimes swayed by whichever crony he's talked to last. That's why Barry Switzer might end up having similar standing to a scout who has spent hundreds of hours watching tape and studying players.
Fortunately for you guys, I've been able to stay one step ahead of Jerry when it comes to predicting which players the Cowboys will select early in the draft. Yes, I bailed on my Tyron Smith prediction at the last minute last year, but let's focus on the fact that I was the first to identify him as the Cowboys' No. 1 target.
As Thursday's first round approaches, you'll hear a lot of talk about the Cowboys either trading up a couple of spots to take an elite player or perhaps dropping down a couple places to end up with an additional pick. Put that out of your mind and realize that Jones is more determined than ever to stay right where he is and take the top player on his board. Every mock draft in the world has the Cowboys taking Alabama safety Mark Barron 14th overall.
Folks at Valley Ranch believe there's a good shot Barron will already be off the board at that point. And it's hard to believe the Cowboys would trade up as high as No. 11 to select Barron.
It's becoming apparent in talking to sources across the league that Dallas would be thrilled to stay at 14 and select Stanford guard David DeCastro. The Cowboys signed a couple of serviceable starters at both guard spots in free agency, but DeCastro is viewed as an immediate Pro Bowl candidate.
"Decastro is my offensive version of (Boston College ILB Luke) Kuechley," a longtime AFC scout told FOXSportsSouthwest.com. "Good solid all around player with a good level of intangibles. Safe bet, sure thing as a starter."
Now, some of you need to hold your nose before I mention this next option for the Cowboys. It's Memphis defensive tackle Dontari Poe, who has taken a beating from some draft gurus for taking too many plays off. It's true that Poe didn't exactly light it up in Conference USA, but some scouts are intoxicated by his immense potential.
"He has lots of physical tools and upside factor," said the scout. "Hot and cold performer who when on looks real good but inconsistent. With that said, he's a first-round talent with some red flags on hit/miss production. But if you're a 34 front, you will like to have him as your nose."
Everyone loves Mississippi State DT Fletcher Cox, but it's almost a given that he'll be gone by the time the Cowboys pick. If for whatever reason Jones decides to get cute and trade down, start looking for Poe. If they stay at 14, DeCastro will likely be the pick.
And if anything changes between now and Thursday in regards to the Cowboys' board, you'll be the first to know. Hey, maybe we'll get lucky again and someone will post an image of the Cowboys' draft board online.
I always thought that was one of Jerry Jr's boldest moves.
