Cincinnati Bengals

How the Bengals can win in Houston

Updated Nov. 10, 2022 2:08 p.m. ET

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The Cincinnati Bengals will try to bring things full circle on Saturday.

It’s been more than two decades since the Bengals last won a playoff game -- a 41-14 victory over Houston in a wild card playoff game on Jan. 6, 1991. A win Saturday gives the Bengals their first road playoff win in team history.

The Texans are three-point favorites, which essentially means they're favored because they're at home.

Can the Bengals win? Of course. Houston is starting an even less experienced rookie than Andy Dalton at quarterback (T.J. Yates), and the Texans lost three in a row heading into the playoffs.

Cincinnati has to hope Dalton is healthy. He missed part of the week’s practice due to the flu, but is expected to play. Then the Bengals' fine offensive line has to keep him upright. Houston’s pass rush (44 sacks, sixth in the league) swarms from every angle.
Those are practical elements to the game, but there are three other more philosophical, Kierkegaardian elements that are also important to Cincinnati’s hopes.

1. Limit the run
Houston can win with a third-string rookie at quarterback because of its running game. The Texans ranked second in the league in rushing this season, averaging 153 yards per game. They came within 58 yards of putting two 1,000-yard rushers in the backfield. Backup Ben Tate ran for 942 yards, while starter Arian Foster had 1,224. Running effectively sets up everything the Texans like to do, which is run, then use play-action to throw. Stopping the run limits the offense’s effectiveness and makes the Texans more one-dimensional. At that point, Houston would have to depend on Yates, and the Bengals could turn the pass rush loose.
Stopping the run sounds all well and good, but doing so will be extremely difficult. The last time Houston was held under 100 yards rushing as a team was Nov. 27 against Jacksonville. In nine of the last 10 games, they've rushed for at least 144 yards -- and twice went over 200. The silver lining: Cincinnati was the team that "held" the Texans to 144, and Houston won 20-19 on a last-minute drive.
That 144 number is a little deceiving, though, because Yates had 36 while Tate and Foster combined on 23 carries for 108 yards. The Bengals need to be better, but they would accept that yardage total from the two backs, especially if they can limit the Texans’ points.
2. Help A.J. Green
Wade Phillips turned Houston from the No. 30 defense in the league to being second-ranked. He is a wise man and an excellent coordinator. So, his plan will focus on stopping sensational Bengals rookie A.J. Green.

Somebody has to help, be it Jerome Simpson, Jermaine Gresham or another player. If Green is doubled, somebody else has to be open. That someone has to take advantage and give Dalton the support he’ll need.

Green’s health also is key. Since he sprained his shoulder on Dec. 18, he’s only caught six of the 20 passes thrown his way -- for a long of 18 yards (though he was ridiculously mugged in the end zone on the next-to-last play of the loss to Baltimore, with no flag thrown).
It would be great if Green could get himself untracked in his first playoff game, but Phillips will do all he can to ensure that does not happen. That’s why someone else has to come up with the big catches.

3. Win the big plays

Ray Rice runs of 70 and 46 yards did in the Bengals in the season finale. Those runs are the reason Baltimore earned a bye and the Bengals lost. Limit those big plays, and who knows what happens?

The same is true in Houston. If Cincinnati plays patient, solid defense, it will be fine. The Texans will get yards -- they are built to do so -- but Cincinnati can’t worry about Houston chipping away. The major focus has to be on stopping the big play and preventing points. Stopping the big play will keep them in the game, and if the Bengals get a big play or two of their own and get a lead, all the better.

The Bengals were not expected to be playing at this point of the season, but a lot of things that were not supposed to take place did, in fact, happen. Cincinnati will not go into this game feeling lucky; it will go in believing it can win -- and expecting to win. Can they pull it off? It could just be that kind of year.

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