NASCAR Cup Series

Bump 'n' Run: Mike Joy joins the party to talk Chase picks

Published Sep. 10, 2014 9:01 a.m. ET

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Mike Joy, the FOX Sports lap-by-lap announcer who has worked 34 Daytona 500 races, joins FOXSports.com editors Jay Pennell and Joe Menzer to debate this week's hottest NASCAR topics.

1. Who do you like to win the Chase for the Sprint Cup, and why?

Mike Joy: I've said this on the air, and I'll repeat ... I think the road to the Sprint Cup goes through Jeff Gordon. He wins, he's consistent, and he's finished all the races (so far).

Joe Menzer: My pick is Brad Keselowski, and not necessarily because he just won the last race to give him a series-high four victories for the season. It's because I think his team has had the most laser-like focus on this from the get-go this season. And because I think Paul Wolfe might be the new Chad Knaus.

Jay Pennell: With so much on the line and the elimination format and 'winner-take-all' race at Homestead, I think it is harder than ever to predict a champ. That being said, I have to go with the veteran Jeff Gordon. He has shown renewed confidence and has been hard to beat all year. I think this is the year he finally becomes a "Sprint Cup" champion.

Menzer: Well, there you go. Right off the bat Jay is sucking up to Mike Joy. Thanks for joining us today, BTW, Mike!

Pennell: Hey now ... Great minds think alike; that's all I'll say. And now I'll agree with you on your last point, Joe. I think Paul Wolfe is among the best crew chiefs in the garage right now, but Gordon just has that focus and determination that has not exactly been there for quite some time.

And while we can all sit here and predict a champion, one cut tire, bad pit stop, blown engine, and any of the championship contenders can lose the title like that.

Joy: I think that's true in the later rounds, but maybe not in the round of 16. Two really good and one really bad race might trump three mediocre races. Or ... one win and two DNFs and you advance.

Mike Joy (center) and Darrell Waltrip (left) interview U.S. Marine Staff Sgt. Liam Dwyer during pre-race ceremonies at Dover International Speedway earlier this year.

Follow Mike on Twitter @mikejoy500

Menzer: Exactly. Or really in any of the first three rounds, right? You can always make up for a bad race by winning the next one, or one of the next two.

Pennell: Unlike in past years, one bad race will not end your title run, like what happened to Dale Earnhardt Jr. last season.

Menzer: See, that's why I like Keselowski. I think that team will regroup when and if it has to -- and I think it can win anywhere. I'm not saying Gordon is a bad pick by you guys. I've got him making my final four going to Homestead. But I think when it comes to that last race, BK will be there, and I see him completing his season of redemption by finishing ahead of the other three.

Pennell: At the same time, if a non-Chase driver like Clint Bowyer or Kyle Larson can score a win and spoil the Chase party, points will come into play once again, so consistency cannot be ignored.

Joy: On the other hand, the next three races could be much like last year's mindset -- race to win, but be SURE you get a good finish. So does that mean "points racing" is back?

Menzer: What's interesting to me here -- and it just hit me -- is that we asked who would win this year's Chase, and NONE of us replied Jimmie Johnson! I wonder why ...

Pennell: I think Jimmie Johnson and the No. 48 team have turned things around over the past few weeks, and I have them in my final four, but I don't know that they are as put together as in years past.

Jay Pennell

Follow Jay on Twitter @jaywpennell

Joy: I think the 20 (Matt Kenseth) and 48 are the only cars that could win the Cup without winning a Chase race.

Pennell: I think it was Gordon who said after Richmond you'll want to go for wins in the first few rounds, but you don't want to risk wrecking or putting yourself in a bad spot. If that's the case, a fifth-place finish is better than wrecking while battling for the lead.

Joy: We just don't know yet if this format will reward their strategy ... consistent top finishes, lead or win when you can.

Pennell: I think points racing will definitely be a factor in the opening two rounds, which may benefit a driver like Matt Kenseth.

Joy: Sure. And once again we'll start hearing, "Well, we had a good points day."

Menzer: Kenseth? You guys are kidding, right? Kenseth is going nowhere in this Chase.

Pennell: You have to remember, Kenseth is strong at tracks like Dover, Charlotte and Talladega. He could easily score wins at each of those tracks.

Joe Menzer

Follow Joe on Twitter @OneMenz

Joy: Okay, we've already been to all those tracks. Where's he been? This is probably going to come down to Hendrick (and Stewart-Haas Racing) vs. Penske, unless the Toyotas step it up.

Menzer: Johnson will definitely be in the mix until the end, as will Gordon. I just think it's Keselowski who comes out on top this time. Kenseth won't sniff the final four. Those Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas don't have the speed to compete with the Hendrick or Team Penske guys. It's not Matt's fault, but it's the truth.

Pennell: Kenseth was third at Charlotte and third at Dover, but finished 37th at Talladega. I agree the biggest issue Kenseth is facing is the lack of speed in the Gibbs cars. I don't have Kyle Busch advancing past the Challenger 16.

Menzer: Any more comments about Kenseth being in the mix in this Chase, Jay, and you're destined to finish third in today's debate -- or maybe 37th, even though there are only three of us.

2. Do you like the new Chase elimination format?

Menzer: I love, love, love it. Like Mike said earlier, I don't want it to reduce things to points racing -- but I don't think it will. There will be too many variables at play in each round, and we'll have all kinds of races within the races. I think it's going to lead to some very cool stuff. ... Then again, I was convinced last Saturday's regular-season finale at Richmond was going to be exciting, too. And it wasn't.

Pennell: I was among the group that did not like the format when it was first announced. I am a fan of consistency, but know there has to be a bigger emphasis on winning races. I also do not like the randomness of a winner-takes-all season finale to determine the champion.

The format has grown on me, though. It will be interesting to see how it plays out over the next two years. There are just a lot of unknowns right now for me to pass judgment.

Joy: I definitely liked the regular season. Win to get in, and the tension of the final two or three spots made it very entertaining. I also have misgivings about the manufactured aspect of four drivers fighting in the final race, however. Who didn't like the Carl (Edwards) vs. Tony (Stewart) finale when it was winner-take-all at Homestead?

Pennell: I agree, Mike. The regular season was very compelling and saw some great racing with drivers and teams going for those all-important wins.

That season finale at Homestead in 2011 was a great race, just as the 1992 Hooters 500 was. But in both those races the eventual winners -- Stewart and Alan Kulwicki -- had to overcome points differences. So in essence, they weren't really winner-take-all races.

Menzer: Well, this year the regular season was very compelling until Richmond ... and then, surprisingly, it wasn't.

Joy: This could all blow up IF a non-Chase driver (or eliminated driver) takes out a Chase driver on another team, and the non-Chase driver's teammate benefits.

Menzer: That could happen, yes. But to me, the uncertainty of it all is what is going to make that season finale must-watch TV -- and isn't that why NASCAR essentially is doing this?

Pennell: I also think the elimination aspect is as much of a formality to create drama as anything. After the first few races in any Chase there were a host of drivers already out of contention anyway.

Joy: Meanwhile, someone tweeted EVERY TV reporter asking about the Roush cars at Richmond. The 99 (Edwards) and 17 (Ricky Stenhouse Jr.) qualified and practiced very well, but faded well behind Biffle in the race. Conspiracy???? MWR-style manipulation???

Menzer: What? NASCAR? Conspiracy? Manipulation? Surely, you jest, Mr. Joy!

Joy: I think if the 99 and 17 had a plan, they kept it well under the radar, and did nothing overt -- like spinning out or racing into the pits with a handful of laps to go.

Pennell: I'm not sure if that was the case for Roush, as they have a whole host of issues there, but you never know. There is definitely a slippery slope when it comes to team orders and race manipulation.

Joy: It would be impossible to prove they didn't run as well as they could have.

Pennell: If that was Roush's plan, they must have been executing it all season long. They have never shown speed, aside from Carl's two wins.

Menzer: In other words, if they did something, they were smarter about it. No "poison-ivy itching" routine that would land you on the Dumb Crooks hotline.

Joy: Maybe it was just a coincidence that they underperformed worse than the 16 (of Biffle) in the race.

Menzer: Man, as bad as Biffle himself ran, if the other RFR guys were truly holding back, they might as well have been riding donkeys.

Pennell: I think if NASCAR is going to figure out how teams are manipulating races, they're going to need some decoders. Teams are already talking in code and using secrets about setup changes and adjustments.

Menzer: Maybe that clown who climbed the fence was working undercover for RFR, too! That wasn't Jack Roush in disguise, was it?

Pennell: Are you saying you don't buy the whole, "It's my birthday, I want to be on TV!" thing?!

Joy: First thing everybody wanted to know was what driver's T-shirt he had on. He sure fooled them!

Menzer: Hahaha. Too funny.The Shirtless Wonder strikes again!

Joy: Richmond Sobriety Test: Explain the Chase Elimination format.

Pennell: Exactly, Mike! I think you've hit on something there. His quote to the local media on Monday (which he was advised against doing by his lawyer) was great: "I guess we never grow up." However, I think if you gave that test to a lot of folks, they would fail, regardless of their sobriety.

Joy: Lemme see ... okay, first there's the pretender round ... How many cars and how many races in that one???

Menzer: So we're going to mark you down as a "No" on whether you like the Chase elimination format, Mike! I'm a yes. That leaves the tiebreaker to you, Jay.

Joy: Whoa, I'm still a yes ... with the possible exception of the final round. Oh wait, it isn't a "round" because it's only one race. So what is it?

Pennell: I was not a fan at first, and there are still aspects I don't like about it, but I want to see how it plays out for the next two years before I pass judgment. What I do like is the fact it is creating excitement.

Joy: Agreed!

Pennell: I don't fill out NCAA March Madness brackets, I'm terrible at fantasy football, but I filled out a Chase Grid. I hope it creates enough excitement that in the next year or two there are Chase Grid office pools like they have for March Madness.

Menzer: Two years? We have to wait two freakin' years for your guys' definitive answers??? You guys have been watching too many football GMs being asked to evaluate their current drafts! Don't you know this is the Internet Age, the era of instant analysis and even more instant gratification? Two years is an eternity!

Joy: So who's in your (oops, we can't say final four) championship race?

Pennell: Haha. I'm a history guy, Joe. I want to see how it works out before guessing and predicting the unpredictable. My Championship 4 are ... Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jimmie Johnson and Joey Logano, with Jeff Gordon winning the championship.

Menzer: Me? I've got Gordon, Johnson, Logano and the champ, Keselowski. And BTW, I'm your knee-jerk reaction, 21st-century, wanna, gotta-have-an-opinion-right-now guy.

Joy: I like the 2, 4, 24 and either 48 or 88. Gordon to win.

Pennell: Pretty solid picks all around, I would say. I think we're pretty much in agreement it will be a Hendrick-Penske battle.

Joy: Any one of those can win Homestead, which should make it really exciting.

3. OK, so who are your first four out and do you have a dark-horse pick who may make a surprising run at the title?

Pennell: My first four out are: Kyle Busch, Greg Biffle, Ryan Newman and AJ Allmendinger.

Joy: Most at risk in Round One: 5 (Kasey Kahne), 16 (Biffle), 31 (Newman), 43 (Aric Almirola), 47 (Allmendinger). Inconsistent, so must win to advance: 11 (Denny Hamlin), 41 (Kurt Busch). Very dark-horse pick: 31 (Newman).

Pennell: In terms of a dark horse, I'd have to go with Matt Kenseth. If he can score a few wins at the tracks I mention, as well as run consistently like he has, I think he can sneak into the Eliminator 8 and possibly even the Championship 4.

Menzer: My first four out are Allmendinger, Almirola, Biffle and Edwards. I'll go with Kasey Kahne as my dark-horse pick, because I know he's in Hendrick equipment and I know that he and crew chief Kenny Francis have been known to get on a roll even when it seems they've been out to lunch too long.

Joy: That's a long lunch. And Edwards? He'll make it to the 8.

Menzer: Hahaha. Yeah, it's like one of my lunches during a 12-hour shift at FOX Sports. But at least when I come back, I do have a shirt on.

Joy: And you're not perched on top of the fence.

Menzer: Well, it would be a cube ... but thankfully, no!

Pennell: Lunch? What's that? I'm usually too busy hammering away at the keyboard to take lunch. Ha!

Joy: LOL ... no crumbs in the keyboard, now. The IT department hates that.

Pennell: I guess I'm the real fence-sitter here, not taking a stand on the new Chase format, but again, I'll keep my shirt on and save the cold beverages for AFTER work.

Joy: Any chance a non-Hendrick (+SHR) or non-Penske car wins it all??? I doubt it.

Menzer: There goes Jay again, trying to score points with the esteemed Mr. Joy. Me? I'm too old to worry about sucking up now. But this time I wholeheartedly agree with Mike. No way this title is won by someone not in a Hendrick or Team Penske car.

Pennell: They've been the class of the field since off-season testing and they'll stay that way until the final race. I do think we'll see non-Chase drivers win in the final 10 races of the year, though.

Menzer: Yep. I'd bet my shirt on it.

Pennell: Ha! Nice

Joy: It would be nice to see a Ganassi win, or MWR.

Menzer: Agreed on that, and I think that very well may happen. But hardly anyone will notice. They'll be too focused on the Chase.

Pennell: Unless it's Kyle Larson, Joe. I think he scores his first win and that would be pretty big news, the first of many for him.

Menzer: Just as we hope this was the first of many Bump 'n' Run sessions for Mike Joy. Thanks for joining us today, Mike. Any parting thoughts?

Joy: I expect a lot a drama, one non-Chase winner, at least two big driver/crew chief implosions, and the champ having to WIN Homestead.

Pennell: Would one of those driver/crew chief implosions be Kyle Busch and Dave Rogers? That's something I'd bet on for sure, and I'm not a betting man.

It was great having you join us today, Mike! Thanks for your insight and for putting up with us. See you in the cube, Joe, but hopefully not on top of it!

Joy: Thanks, fellas. See you next time!

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