Ben Roethlisberger

Why the Chiefs are the biggest threat to the Patriots in the AFC playoffs

Published Jan. 1, 2017 8:26 p.m. ET

Dieter Kurtenbach

Tom Brady and the New England Patriots are the No. 1 seed in the AFC Playoffs and are the hands-down, no-question favorites to reach Super Bowl LI in Houston in February.

And why wouldn't they be? Look at the rest of the field in the AFC:

The Raiders and Dolphins are going to be playing backup quarterbacks in the postseason, and the Texans aren't sure if they want to start their bad $72 million quarterback or his bad backup.

And while the Steelers are playing well at the end of the season — they're a threat to the Patriots, no doubt — there are still question marks on that team, including quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who is the 19th-ranked quarterback in football this season, per Pro Football Focus.

The Patriots have been playing exceptional football this season — they only lost one game with Tom Brady at the helm this year, 31-24 to the Seahawks in Foxboro — and that incredible stretch includes a win over the Steelers.

But the Patriots did not play Kansas City this year, and the Chiefs, like the Steelers, will enter the postseason in tremendous form.

Sunday, the Chiefs beat the Chargers 37-27 in San Diego — Alex Smith had a quarterback rating of 112, four receivers had more than 40 yards, and the Chiefs were 8-of-12 on third down.

And because of Kansas City's strong season-ending form, the Chiefs will also enter the postseason with a first-round bye (which could allow pass rusher extraordinaire Justin Houston to return to the lineup) and a Divisional Round home game (probably against Pittsburgh, giving the Chiefs a little something extra to prove after a 43-17 loss on Oct. 2).

Kansas City might have been the luckiest team in the NFL this year — there's not a lot of logic behind a few of the team's 12 wins — but they're also the league's best in three important x-factors, and it's their quality in those areas that should scare New England.

Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good, and the Chiefs are particularly good at being lucky.

There's no skill in falling on top of an oblong football, after all, but it's one of the most critical aspects of winning games in the NFL. Football is an incredibly complicated game, but one of the game's best barometers for success is the simple turnover ratio, and the Chiefs are one of the league's best in that area.

Kansas City is particularly adroit at creating turnovers in the red zone — the Chiefs ended the season with an NFL-leading 33 takeaways, they picked up eight of those inside their own 20-yard line, also tops in the league.

The Chiefs aren't the best defense in the NFL — they're somewhere in the middle of the pack according to Football Outsider's advanced stats — but when it comes to taking away the ball, no one can match Kansas City, and against the Patriots, who threw two interceptions all season, that's huge.

(One game where New England did lose the turnover battle this year? Against Seattle.)

And Kansas City also doesn't turn the ball over much themselves — they had only 17 giveaways this year.

If anyone is going to win the turnover battle against the Patriots this year, it's the Chiefs, and if you're going to beat the Patriots, you have to win that battle.

That's all fine, but it shouldn't induce fear in the Patriots' hearts.

But Tyreek Hill should.

https://twitter.com/NFL/status/815705205962461184

The rookie kick returner and offensive weapon scored 12 touchdowns this season, including a 95-yard punt return in Week 17.

If not for Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott, Hill would be the NFL's Rookie of the Year, and while he's a diminutive fella, there's not a team in the NFL who can truly stop him in the open field.

The Patriots are perennially one of the NFL's best in special teams, and this year is no different — New England was second in the NFL in punt return coverage and third in kick return coverage.

It's a big part of why the Patriots are so successful – they win on offense, they can win on defense (though not as much this season), and they always win on special teams.

But Hill can break free on any kick — he was the best returner in the NFL this season.

How would the Patriots look if Brady turned the ball over and the Patriots had the second-best special teams unit on the field?

That might flip the script entirely, including the final score.

It's not an easy thing to do, but Kansas City is the team most poised to do it in the AFC.

So while the Patriots are the best team in the conference and the Chiefs probably aren't even the second-best, the one matchup that New England should want the least this postseason is Kansas City.