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NFL Playoffs 2017: 5 Reasons Detroit Lions Can Win Super Bowl 51
The Detroit Lions are Super Bowl 51 longshots in the NFC, but here are five reasons why they can still wind up hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.
At the beginning of the 2015 season, Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford looked lost. Stafford threw 12 touchdowns and ten interceptions through seven weeks before the Lions fired offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi. The Lions replaced Lombardi with Jim Bob Cooter, and Stafford immediately rebounded. He would finish the 2015 season with 20 touchdowns and four interceptions in the final nine games, including a streak of six games with multiple touchdown passes at the end.
Stafford’s resurgence has continued in 2016, as he is one of the second-tier MVP candidates behind the likes of Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, and Aaron Rodgers. After years of ups and downs, Stafford is finally in the upper-echelon of quarterbacks. Both Cooter and a well-balanced supporting cast have allowed him to become a smarter, more well-rounded quarterback. The former first-overall pick can still sling it a mile downfield—just ask Marvin Jones—but he also completed 65.3 percent of his passes with a career-low 10 interceptions.
The Lions are 9-7 and in the playoffs this season, with most of the credit going to Stafford for his excellent play. However, give new general manager Bob Quinn his due for unsung additions, including rookie stalwart Taylor Decker, under-appreciated veteran wide receiver Anquan Boldin, and safety Tavon Wilson (a personal favorite of mine).
A tough game against the Seattle Seahawks awaits them on Saturday of Wild Card weekend, but the Lions are no strangers to being underdogs. They are tied for the lowest Super Bowl odds of any of the playoff teams, but here are five reasons they could become a feel-good story.
Dec 11, 2016; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Lions kicker Matt Prater (5) kicks a field goal as punter Sam Martin (6) holds the ball during the second quarter against the Chicago Bears at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports
5. The Lions Are Clutch
The Detroit Lions have lost by more than 10 points just twice this season. It is disconcerting to see that these two losses came near the end of the regular season and were at the hands of two playoff teams (the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys), but you have to admire the fact that the Lions keep opponents close.
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They are even better at pulling out wins in these circumstances. Detroit stole a win from the Minnesota Vikings on Thanksgiving, and this came after they beat them in overtime earlier in the season on an insane run-after-the-catch play by wide receiver Golden Tate.
It’s no surprise that Matthew Stafford led the way at the end of games this season, because he is “Captain Clutch.” Stafford had eight fourth-quarter comebacks and eight game-winning drives this season, leading the league in both stats over fellow MVP darkhorse Derek Carr.
Stafford isn’t the only Lions player capable of delivering in the clutch. Wide receivers Anquan Boldin, Marvin Jones, and Tate can all come through at the end of games. However, kicker Matt Prater has played the role of the hero almost as often as Stafford has. Who can forget his 58-yard bomb in that first matchup against the Vikings that sent the game into overtime?
The Lions won nine games this season, and eight of them were by just one score. A cynic would look at that and conclude that the Lions were exceedingly lucky, but a more optimistic person would surmise that they have the ability to gut out close wins.
Jan 1, 2017; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Lions fullback Zach Zenner (34) is tackled by Green Bay Packers inside linebacker Jake Ryan (47) during the second quarter at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports
4. Zach Zenner’s Emergence
I wish the Detroit Lions gave Zach Zenner a chance to shine earlier, because he’s always been one of the best athletes in this league. Ameer Abdullah’s early-season injury absolutely gutted the Lions rushing attack, but Stafford was able to overcome the lack of the running game due to his variety of weapons. With Boldin moving the chains, Tate transitioning back to a No. 1 receiver role, Jones stretching the field, Eric Ebron working at the tight end position, and Theo Riddick as the scat back, Stafford could beat defenses at all levels of the field.
However, against the best that the league has to offer in the postseason, it is difficult to skate by without a running game. Elite teams have a way of making you pay for a glaring weakness, and we saw that in last year’s Super Bowl when the Denver Broncos relentlessly attacked the Carolina Panthers offensive tackles.
The Lions running game was undoubtedly a weakness during the regular season, because the team was 27th with just 3.7 yards per carry. They knew how poor they were on the ground, too, finishing second-to-last in rushing attempts. Riddick led the Lions in rushing, and in-between-the-tackles guy Dwayne Washington averaged a disastrous 2.9 yards per carry.
Zenner has been a huge bright spot for the Lions ever since getting a shot against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 16. Although the Lions lost both of those two games against the Cowboys and Green Bay Packers, Zenner combined for three touchdowns. He hasn’t been a shining light of efficiency with 3.8 yards per carry this year, but he’s shown far more ability as a lead back than either Washington or Riddick.
If Zenner can keep this up, he can help a Lions offense that was quietly just 20th in the NFL in points per game, largely because of their one-dimensional offense. Seahawks defensive end Michael Bennett is already a big fan of Zenner’s game, and he could earn more praise around the league this postseason.
Dec 11, 2016; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Lions wide receiver Anquan Boldin (80) runs after a catch during the fourth quarter against the Chicago Bears at Ford Field. Lions win 20-17. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
3. Carefully Constructed Passing Attack
The Lions were just 20th in the league in points per game, and that’s kind of shocking when you consider how smoothly this passing attack operates under Caldwell and Cooter. Beyond Stafford’s impressive stats that includes 7.3 yards per pass attempts and 270.4 passing yards per game, the Lions pass-catchers gel perfectly.
Early in the season, Marvin Jones was the brightest star, and he became a brief fantasy darling when he dropped 205 receiving yards on just six receptions against the Green Bay Packers. At the same time, Golden Tate struggled to get any traction, and he was even benched at one point.
Fast forward to the end of the regular season, and Tate was the lone receiver over 1,000 yards. The 2016 season was Tate’s third straight year with over 90 receptions. Let be known, though, that Jones wasn’t far behind Tate with 930 receiving yards, buoyed by a whopping 16.9 yards per reception. Jones has become the Lions resident big-play threat—the go-to guy whenever Stafford needs to make something happen quickly, which is always a nice resource to have. Meanwhile, Tate is the go-to-guy in just about every sense, as evidenced by his team-high 135 targets.
Stafford can use Boldin and Riddick as chain-movers, and both players add plenty of value. Boldin is a savvy veteran who is stronger than just about every cornerback on the planet, and his eight receiving touchdowns are a testament to his value as a red zone weapon. Riddick’s credentials as an elite pass-catching back are well-established, and he added 53 more catches to his tally this season.
The Lions have one more weapon defenses must account for in tight end Eric Ebron, who put up 711 receiving yards with an average of 8.36 yards per target as the Lions fourth option. Somewhat surprisingly, Ebron has been one of the league’s most consistent players this season hauling in 71.8 percent of everything thrown at him with 15 games of three receptions or more.
Effective passing attacks need to make use of a variety of different wide receivers, and this is the blueprint that successful teams like the New England Patriots, Seattle Seahawks, and Pittsburgh Steelers follow.
Nov 24, 2016; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Lions cornerback Darius Slay (23) celebrates after making an interception during the fourth quarter against the Minnesota Vikings at Ford Field. Lions win 16-13. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
2. Solid Secondary
It’s no secret that the Lions have one of the NFL’s least effective pass rushing groups, especially since star defensive end Ziggy Ansah has been off the pace this season. Ansah’s been a bit better than his meager two sacks would indicate, but it’s fair to expect so much more from a player of his caliber. In fact, the Lions best pass rusher this season has been breakout 2014 undrafted free agent Kerry Hyder, who leads the way with eight sacks.
The Lions pass defense has struggled statistically with 33 touchdowns allowed and just 10 interceptions, but these issues are squarely on the front seven’s ineffectiveness.
Even though the Lions have failed to defend the pass adequately, the blame should not be shouldered by the starting defensive backs. Darius Slay and Glover Quin continue to be among the best players in the league. While they have combined for just four interceptions between them, they have been able to step up with game-changing plays. For example, both of Slay’s interceptions against the Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings won the game for the Lions.
Slay and Quin are the types of defensive backs that scare quarterbacks and coordinators alike, because they can—and have—won games with their individual brilliance. Both of Slay’s interceptions were a combination of excellent instincts and athleticism, two traits that have made him a top-10 player at his position.
The rest of the secondary is filled with underrated contributors. Safeties Tavon Wilson and Rafael Bush had minor flashes in the past, but Quin, who may have played a role in the Patriots controversially drafting Wilson in the second round of the 2012 draft, has turned them into useful parts. Wilson had 89 tackles and two interceptions last season as a solid complement to Quin, giving the veteran an even better partner than James Ihedigbo used to be under Teryl Austin.
Another defensive back worth praising is cornerback Nevin Lawson, who qualifies as a third-year breakout candidate. Lions fans saw his potential in 2015, and he has nine passes defended this year. Unlike most of his teammates, Lawson played his best football in December, which bodes well for the challenges ahead.
Dec 26, 2016; Arlington, TX, USA; Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) in action during the game against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
1. Matthew Stafford Is At His Best
Remember when Deion Sanders said that Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler are the same person? After this season, it’s pretty clear that there’s a difference between the two.
In the past, some fans and writers framed discussions around Stafford as an under-achiever, often criticizing him for relying too much on Calvin Johnson. When the Lions last made the playoffs in 2014, Stafford’s numbers were similar to his numbers this season, just slightly worse (7.3 vs. 7.1 yards per pass attempt, 24 vs. 22 touchdown passes). Both Tate and Megatron had over 1,000 receiving yards, but they were the only players on the team with 60 targets. This year, the Lions had five players with over 60 targets.
For as much as we praise Cooter for turning around Stafford’s career, maybe we need to kick some love to Stafford, his receivers, and Quinn. Stafford’s best season as a quarterback is a culmination of many factors, and maybe the most important one is Stafford’s own maturation.
At 28, Stafford has plenty of experience under his belt, and he’s only starting to reach the prime of his career. Despite turnover on the coaching staff and in the front office, the Lions organization has never lost faith in Stafford, and he’s rewarding them by leading the team to another playoff appearance.
There’s no doubt that Stafford is at his best as a passer right now, and the Lions can benefit from both sides of him. They can benefit from Stafford as a smart, accurate distributor who takes care of the football and gets non-flashy players like Boldin involved. On the other hand, the Lions can also benefit from Stafford as a gunslinger who can hook up with Jones for an exciting play if the defense lets their guard down.
The Lions are tied with the Oakland Raiders, Miami Dolphins, and Houston Texans for the longest Super Bowl odds. You know what the Lions have that those three teams don’t? A healthy franchise quarterback who is at the top of his game.
