NFL odds Week 7: Falcons on historic cover streak; best betting trends
Week 7 of the NFL season is upon us, and FOX Sports Research is here to keep giving you the edges needed to make a profit!
Last week’s piece pointed out a few winners. Seven underdogs covered against the spread (ATS), with six of them winning straight up (SU). The Atlanta Falcons won as underdogs against the San Francisco 49ers and improved to 6-0 ATS for the first time in franchise history, the Washington Commanders covered against the Chicago Bears, and Patrick Mahomes did not cover and lost for the first time as a home underdog against the Buffalo Bills.
As always, we did a deep dive into the data to identify the best trends of the week. We also looked at more team- and player-specific trends, which should help inform you on who to bet on this week.
Let's jump in and have some fun!
Favorites to cover in Week 7
Underdogs have been the story of the season when it comes to NFL betting, going an astounding 54-38-2 ATS (58.7%). However, we looked specifically at Week 7 data and found some interesting results.
From almost any time frame in the past 32 years, favorites have historically covered in Week 7. While the cover rates below aren’t significantly over 50%, the trend still points in a positive direction. The win rates are exorbitantly high as well.
Since 2015: 50-45-3 ATS (52.6%) and 70-27-1 SU (72.2%)
Since 2005: 116-112-5 ATS (50.9%) and 161-7-1 SU (95.8%)
Since 2000: 152-145-6 ATS (51.1%) and 208-94-1 SU (68.9%)
Since 1990: 211-205-8 ATS (50.7%) and 293-130-1 SU (69.3%)
Chiefs should bounce back against 49ers
The Chiefs are coming off a four-point loss as home underdogs against the Bills, but we like them to bounce back against the 49ers this week. Since 2000, the Chiefs are 5-1 ATS (83.3%) and 3-3 SU (50%) against San Francisco in regular-season matchups. Going back even further to 1971, Kansas City is 8-5 ATS (61.5%) and 6-7 SU (46.2%) when playing them in the regular season.
Furthermore, Andy Reid is 15-11 ATS (57.7%) and 16-10 SU (61.5%) when coming off a loss as the Chiefs head coach in the regular season. Reid also is 27-18 ATS (60%) and 34-11 SU (75.6%) as a road favorite in regular-season games during his tenure in Kansas City.
If you want to place a wager on the Chiefs, FOX Bet has them as 2.5-point favorites.
Look for the Patriots to cover against Bears
This is the trend that had the most data supporting this week. Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots have been dominant against NFC North teams in the regular season, going 14-10-1 ATS (58.3%) and 18-7 SU (72%) in his tenure. Additionally, the Belichick Patriots are 53-21-3 ATS (71.6%) and 68-9 SU (88.3%) as a six- to eight-point favorite under Belichick.
In the head-to-head matchup against the Bears, New England is 3-2-1 ATS (60%) and 5-1 SU (83.3%) under Belichick – with the Over in the Over/Under (O/U) hitting in five of those games (83.3%). Finally, as a home favorite, Belichick’s Patriots are 88-65-4 ATS (57.5%) and 127-30 SU (80.9%).
FOX Bet has the Pats as a 7.5-point favorite.
Giants should cover against Jaguars
This might be the most surprising line of the week, considering the New York Giants are 5-1 SU (83.3%) this season. Brian Daboll’s squad comes into this game as 3-point underdogs at FOX Bet against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are 2-4 SU (33.3%). Below are multiple trends that point to betting on the G-Men as a profitable wager:
– The Giants are 20-10 ATS (66.7%) as road underdogs since 2018
– The Jaguars are 1-6 ATS and SU (14.3%) as two- to four-point favorites since 2018, with the Under hitting in four of the seven games (57.1%)
– The Jaguars have lost 18 straight games against NFC teams and are 3-16 ATS (15.8%) and 1-18 SU (5.3%) in the past 19 regular season games against NFC opponents
– The Jaguars are 9-34 ATS (20.9%) and 4-39 SU (9.3%) since 2012 in regular-season games against NFC opponents
– The Jaguars are 2-10 ATS (16.7%) and 3-9 SU (25%) as favorites against NFC opponents since 2009
Buccaneers should bounce back against Panthers
Much of the talk surrounding this season has been about Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers struggles.
While they lost as double-digit favorites against the Pittsburgh Steelers, we like them to cover in the same situation this week against the Carolina Panthers. Tampa Bay is 8-4 ATS and SU (66.7%) against Carolina since 2016, and 7-4 ATS (63.6%) and 9-2 SU (81.8%) as a nine- to 12-point favorite since 2018.
Brady has also failed to cover in his last four games, the first time this has happened to him since the 2007 season. Teams that have failed to cover in four or more consecutive games and enter the following matchup as a double-digit favorite have won seven straight games.
It should also be worth mentioning that the Panthers are 6-10-1 ATS (37.5%) and 5-12 SU (29.4%) as home underdogs since 2018.
FOX Bet has the Buccaneers as 10.5-point favorites.
Falcons on a historic betting run
We mentioned the Falcons would cover last week, and not only did they do so, but they won by a whopping two touchdowns against the 49ers, who played in last season’s NFC Championship Game. This week, FOX Bet is giving them 6.5 points against last season’s Super Bowl runner-up, the Cincinnati Bengals.
For context, Atlanta is looking to become the fifth team since 1978 to start a season 7-0 ATS. Since 1978, 14 teams have entered a game 6-0 ATS – meaning 28.6% of those teams were able to cover in their seventh game, with last year’s Dallas Cowboys squad being the most recent to do it.
Here are some regular season nuggets pointing in the Falcons direction this weekend:
– Marcus Mariota is 9-3 ATS (75%) and 6-6 SU (50%) as a starter when a five- to eight-point underdog in his career
– The Falcons are 10-7-1 ATS (55.6%) as a road underdog since 2020
– The Falcons are 2-2 ATS and SU (50%) against the Bengals since 2005
– The Falcons are 5-1 ATS (83.3%) in their past six games played in October
– The Bengals are 6-8 ATS (42.9%) as a home favorite since 2018
– The Bengals are 4-6 ATS (40%) as a home favorite under Zac Taylor
The only teams to go 7-0 ATS since 1978 were the 2021 Cowboys, 2018 Chiefs, 2008 Tennessee Titans and the 2007 Patriots.
So are you ready to place some NFL Week 7 bets? Head over to FOX Bet now for all your wagers!
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