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Looking at the NFL’s seven best deep threats in the 2016 season.
There’s nothing more exciting than a bomb down the field that connects with its target. Some teams thrive on the long ball thanks to a guy who can stretch the field and burn the coverage. Subsequently, it’s always pertinent to take a look at the best deep threats in the NFL.
“Deep threat” is a tricky term. You could get duped by statistics. There are plenty of targets who have produced big plays or have a high yards per catch average. Guys like Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham, Jr. can certainly scorch secondaries down the field. But more times than not, they’re taking a slant to the house.
Only a little more than three percent of Brown’s hauls have gone long. Same goes for Jordy Nelson and Jarvis Landry. Landry leads all receivers in yards after catch, while Beckham is third in YAC with Amari Cooper at fourth.
For the purpose of looking at the league’s best, “deep threat” is someone who consistently catches the ball at a point that’s beyond the league average. Perhaps the best method for finding this is using the yards at the catch per reception stat, meaning how many yards down the field is the receiver when he catches the ball.
Someone like Dez Bryant averages 15.8 yards per reception and 13.17 yards at the catch per reception. However, that’s just one of many factors. Only nine of Bryant’s receptions have gone for 20 yards or more and only three catches surpassed 40 yards or more. Victor Cruz has just as many big plays, but 17 fewer catches. Is Cruz as dangerous as Bryant?
Do you consider Sammie Coates and Chris Hogan to be dangerous? Coates is averaging more than 20 yards per reception and has six catches of 40 yards or more, which is tied for tops in the NFL. But he only has 21 grabs on the year. Hogan’s averaging 19 yards per reception, but he has only 33 snags over 14 games. What makes a deep threat so dangerous is consistently beating corners and safeties for long gains.
However, those players aren’t on this list for those exact reasons. Instead, let’s jump into the seven best deep threats in the NFL during the 2016 season.
Dec 11, 2016; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Lions wide receiver Marvin Jones (11) walks off the field before the game against the Chicago Bears at Ford Field. Lions win 20-17. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
7. Marvin Jones — Detroit Lions
A former fifth-round draft pick of the Cincinnati Bengals in the 2012 NFL Draft, Marvin Jones is having the best season of his four-year career. Unfortunately for Bengals fans, his best is coming with the Lions. Jones is averaging 12.51 yards at the catch (third among receivers with 40 catches or more) and 17.1 yards per reception, which is fourth among receivers with 40 or more catches. He’s reeled in 14 catches of 20 yards or more, nine “big plays” in 13 games played (tied for fifth most in NFL), and four grabs of 40 yards or more.
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Jones had huge catches in a Week 1 win against the Indianapolis Colts, a narrow Week 3 defeat to the Green Bay Packers, and slim wins versus the Washington Redskins in Week 7 and Chicago Bears in Week 14.
The man throwing Marvin the deep ball, Matthew Stafford, is 19th in air yards and has third lowest percentage of air yards among qualifying quarterbacks. Stafford’s tied for eighth most big plays passing. When Stafford airs it out, it’s almost always Jones on the receiving end as Anquan Boldin has averaged around eight yards per catch and Golden Tate averages 4.72 yards at the catch and is third in yards after catch.
Only 6.73 percent of Detroit’s plays have been considered big plays. That number places them 20th overall. That number could decrease following Stafford’s injury. Even though Stafford suffered a torn ligament and dislocated finger in his throwing hand, he was still able to connect with Jones on a deep ball against the Giants in Week 15. One has to wonder if that was a mirage or a sign of better things to come.
Dec 27, 2015; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Saints wide receiver Brandin Cooks (10) gestures after a catch in the second half against the Jacksonville Jaguars at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports
6. Brandin Cooks — New Orleans Saints
The third-year pro should be able to surpass his numbers from the 2015 season. Cooks is ranked 10th in total yards at the catch and has averaged 10 yards at the catch and 15.1 yards per reception. He has 13 catches of 20 yards or more, 12 big plays (tied for 2nd most overall) and five grabs of 40 yards or more.
Cooks had monster games against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 15 (seven catches for 186 yards), the Carolina Panthers in Week 6 (seven catches for 173 yards), and the Oakland Raiders in the season opener (six receptions for 143 yards). The speedy wideout also averaged 32 yards per catch and almost 20 yards per target in the heartbreaking loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 10.
The man doling out throws to Cooks, Drew Brees, is second in the NFL in air yards and has thrown the second most big plays, but is 16th in percentage of air yards. While Michael Thomas and Willie Snead have averaged more receptions per game than Cooks, and is second to Thomas in total catches, Cooks leads the team in targets and receiving yards and is second in total yards from scrimmage to Mark Ingram.
There have been reports and rumors surrounding Brandin Cooks being unhappy with his workload in New Orleans. With speculation that the Saints might be trading (or parting ways with) head coach Sean Payton, could Cooks be on the way out as well? If anything, 2016 has shown Cooks’ deep ball potential.
Nov 13, 2016; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Chargers wide receiver Tyrell Williams (16) recats after scoring a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Miami Dolphins at Qualcomm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
5. Tyrell Williams — San Diego Chargers
The soon-to-be 25-year-old, Tyrell Williams, only played in four games in 2015, but has broken out in 2016 because Keenan Allen and Steve Johnson landed on injured reserve. Williams averages 9.15 yards at the catch and 15.7 yards per reception (fifth in the NFL among receivers with 40 or more grabs). Williams has 17 catches of 20 yards or more, 12 big plays (tied for second most), and six catches of 40 yards or more, which is tied for most in the league.
Of the 14 games played, Williams’ averaged more than 20 yards per reception in seven of them. He had gigantic games in a win against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 7 (seven receptions for 140 yards), a three-point loss to the Oakland Raiders in Week 5 (five grabs for 117 yards), and a Week 10 loss to the Miami Dolphins (five catches for 125 yards).
With Allen down, Williams has seen the most targets and receptions per game while leading the Chargers in receiving yards and placing second in yards from scrimmage. Philip Rivers is 12th in air yards and is 19th in percentage of air yards, but has thrown for the third most big plays (32). As disappointing as San Diego’s season has been with all the injuries, Tyrell Williams has been quite the find and could be a deep threat for years to come.
Oct 30, 2016; London, United Kingdom; Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver A.J. Green (18) is defended by Washington Redskins cornerback Josh Norman (24) in the second quarter during game 17 of the NFL International Series at Wembley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
4. A.J. Green — Cincinnati Bengals
The five-time Pro Bowler had averaged the most yards per game of his six-year career before injuring his hamstring in the Week 11 loss to the Buffalo Bills. Prior to going down, Green averaged 10.36 yards at the catch and 14.6 yards per reception (13th among receivers with 40+ receptions). He also has 15 catches going for 20 or more yards and six catches exceeding 40 yards. That last figure has him tied for the most in the league in only a little more than 10 games played. Green also had eight big plays, which is tied for 18th most overall, but much higher in terms of per-game average.
Green had big games against the Cleveland Browns in a Week 7 win (eight catches for 169 yards), the Miami Dolphins in a Week 4 win (10 grabs for 173 yards), and the New York Jets in Cincy’s season-opening win (12 receptions for 180 yards). Despite missing the past five contests, Green still leads the squad in targets, receptions, total touchdowns, and receiving yards while just narrowly placing second in total yards from scrimmage to Jeremy Hill.
Since losing Green, Dalton has played two of his worst rated games (against the Bills and Steelers) and two of his highest (against the Eagles and Browns). Even with the uneven play, Dalton has the second highest yards per attempt and second highest quarterback rating of his six-year career despite seeing Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones depart via free agency. The fact Green has generated big plays without his normal supporting cast (Tyler Eifert included) is a testament to his stature as a deep threat.
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3. DeSean Jackson — Washington Redskins
The 30-year-old veteran hasn’t slowed down. Though his average yards per catch is the lowest of his tenure with Washington, it’s still 17.5, which is tops among receivers with 40 or more catches. No active wide receiver has a higher yards per reception over their career than Jackson.
D-Jax has also averaged 13.31 yards at the catch, which is also first among wideout with 40 or more grabs. DeSean has 15 receptions of 20 yards or more (tied for seventh most in the league) and four snags of 40 yards or more, which has him tied for third most overall. Jackson’s tied for the second most big plays in 13 games played.
Jackson has been a pain in the NFC East’s side. Jackson had gargantuan games against his former team in Philly Week 14 (three receptions for 102 yards), the Cowboys in Week 12 (four catches, 118 yards), and the Giants in Week 3 (five grabs for 96 yards). His sole snag in the Arizona Cardinals game Week 13 went for 59 yards.
Though the three-time Pro Bowler is fourth on the team in receptions and third in targets, he has the most receiving yards and total yards from scrimmage. Full transparency: Jackson was the inspiration for this list. It seems like any time Cousins goes deep, it’s to D-Jax, and it’s usually a completion and a touchdown. Three of Jackson’s four receiving touchdowns have been longer than 43 yards (44, 67, 80).
Sep 1, 2016; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Indianapolis Colts wide receiver T.Y. Hilton (13) during warmups prior to a game of the Indianapolis Colts against the Cincinnati Bengals in preseason NFL football game at Paul Brown Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
2. T.Y. Hilton — Indianapolis Colts
The 2016 season has actually been Hilton’s second lowest yards per reception average of his five-year career, but that’s more of a bump to Hilton’s prowess as a reliable deep threat. He’s averaged 11.90 yards at the catch per reception, which is fifth among wide receivers with 40 or more receptions, and 15.4 yards per reception, good enough for seventh among wideouts with 40+ catches.
Hilton’s 964 yards at the catch are second most in the NFL behind Mike Evans. T.Y.’s hauled in 25 catches of 20 or more yards (most in the NFL), but only two grabs for more than 40. Hilton is tied for the league lead in big plays” with 13.
The former third-round pick had colossal efforts against the San Diego Chargers in a Week 3 win (eight catches, 174 yards), the Tennessee Titans in a Week 7 victory (seven grabs for 133 yards), the Chicago Bears in a Week 5 win (10 receptions for 171 yards), and the New York Jets in a Week 13 victory (nine snags for 146 yards). Hilton leads the Colts in targets, receptions, receiving yards and total yards from scrimmage. Though Phillip Dorsett has a higher yards per reception average than Hilton, Hilton has hauled in 53 more catches.
Four of Hilton’s six receiving touchdowns have been for 35 or more yards. He’s sixth among active wide receivers in yards per reception. If Andrew Luck is chucking it long, odds are Hilton’s hauling it in.
Oct 9, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones (11) during the first half against the Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
1. Julio Jones – WR, Atlanta Falcons
Julio Jones leads the NFL in receiving yards and receiving yards per game, even though he’s missed time at the end of the regular with a sprained toe. His 17.4 yards per reception is the second highest of his six-year career and is second only to DeSean Jackson among wide receivers who’ve snagged 40 or more balls. The Alabama product’s 11.99 yards at the catch average is fifth highest among receivers among that same group. His 863 yards at the catch is third behind T.Y. Hilton and Mike Evans.
Jones’ 24 catches of 20 or more yards are second only to Hilton and his five catches of 40 yards or more is tied for second most in the league. Jones has 11 big plays in just 12 games played, which is tied for third most overall.
In 2016, Jones has gone long against the Carolina Panthers in a Week 4 win (12 catches, 300 yards), the Oakland Raiders in a Week 2 victory (five receptions for 106 yards), the Seattle Seahawks in a tough Week 6 defeat (seven grabs, 139 yards), the San Diego Chargers in a slim Week 7 loss (nine snags, 174 yards) and the Kansas City Chiefs in another narrow loss in Week 13 (seven receptions for 113 yards). Four of Julio’s five receiving touchdowns have been 20 or more yards long. Without question, there’s no deep threat more dangerous than Jones in the NFL right now.
