National Basketball Association

Oklahoma City Thunder 2016-17 Season Outlook: Life Without Kevin Durant

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 8:22 p.m. ET

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May 24, 2016; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) celebrates with guard Andre Roberson (21) during the fourth quarter against the Golden State Warriors in game four of the Western conference finals of the NBA Playoffs at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

As the 2016-17 season begins, the Oklahoma City Thunder will have to get used to life without fairly quickly; can they still be successful?

Last season’s record: 55-27, 3rd in Western Conference

Getting over a painful experience is much like crossing monkey bars. You have to let go at some point in order to move forward. For the Oklahoma City Thunder, their painful experience is life without its most cornerstone star – Kevin Durant.

Throughout eight seasons with OKC, Durant infused something extra into OKC, instilling a winning mantra and competitiveness. But now that his sheer talent has departed, that in itself won’t reconcile Thunder fan’s aching heart.

This is going to be second-year head coach Billy Donovan‘s tallest hurdle to overcome. Despite Oklahoma City returning a plethora of its ripe stars, the task of replacing a superstar is an arduous one for any team to try to accomplish successfully. Here is the overview of what the Thunder lost and gained this off-season.

Acquisitions:

Departures:

Outside of Durant, shooting guard Dion Waiters and power forward Serge Ibaka represented vital cogs that Oklahoma City isn’t getting back. Although Waiters saw a decrease in production on the offensive end last season (averaging 9.8 points and shooting 39.9 percent from the field), Waiters possessed the ability to stretch the floor like no one else within OKC’s lineup. The absence of Ibaka will take a toll along the frontcourt, especially as an interior defender.

For his career, Ibaka swatted an average of 4.4 shots a game per 100 possessions, which was the best for any player in the Thunder’s history.

However, with the additions of Oladipo and Ilyasova on the wing, as well as a roaming 4 man in Sabonis this provides the Thunder options in how Donovan wants to space the floor. During their times with Orlando, Oladipo excelled as a plus defender who could slash on occasion. And when the Magic needed a large body who could hit key perimeter shots Ilyasova stood tall.

Shooting guard Daniel Hamilton, who was drafted last summer out of UConn likely won’t see much playing time this season. However, Hamilton features a dynamic aspect of playing up to three positions for Kevin Ollie last year, so versatility could be something he invigorates into the Thunder’s arsenal down the line.

Apr 23, 2016; Dallas, TX, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (left) and center Enes Kanter (right) react during the fourth quarter against the Dallas Mavericks in game four of the first round of the NBA Playoffs at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Depth Chart Prediction

PG: Russell Westbrook, Ronnie Price

SG: Victor Oladipo, Andre Roberson, Anthony Morrow

SF: Andre Roberson, Kyle Singler, Daniel Hamilton

PF: Ersan Ilyasova, Nick Collison, Domantas Sabonis

C: Steven Adams, Enes Kanter, Kaleb Tarczewski

If it can stay healthy, this is a very potent first-unit that Oklahoma City possess. They have balance in the frontcourt containing a mixture of Steven Adams and Enes Kanter at center, as well as Ilysova at power forward. And if Sabonis turns out to be as good as advertised then that’s roughly 37 percent 3-point shooting OKC is getting out of a 6-foot-10 forward.

Obviously Westbrook is the key to everything here. He is the lone player that resides on the Thunder’s roster that evens out all of the Thunder’s worries. He is a five-time All-Star and is guaranteed to put up 25 and 8 numbers each night. Oladipo definitely brings a consistent scoring threat – 15.9 PPG and 43.1 field goal shooter in his three-year career.

But can OKC receive stable production at the small forward position?

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been patient with Andre Roberson’s development as a starter, but during his first three seasons in the league he’s been nothing more than fill-in for Durant. A fill-in that has never averaged more than five points and one assist per game throughout his career. That alone bears serious skepticism.

May 24, 2016; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder center Steven Adams (12) reacts to a call in action against the Golden State Warriors during the fourth quarter in game four of the Western conference finals of the NBA Playoffs at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports

Strengths

There’s stability at center: Oklahoma City received steady production from Steven Adams and Enes Kanter during their playoff run last season. The towering duo of 7-footers proved to be viable offensive pieces that each showed their worth as versatile shooters and shot-blockers. Amongst the two, both of them averaged 10 points, six rebounds, and two blocks per contest respectively last season, and with more playing time coming their way in 2016-17 roles should likely expand.

Since coming over from Utah in the middle of the 2014-15 season, Kanter has flourished under Oklahoma City’s new regime. In well over two seasons he’s served as plug-in for Donovan’s growing “pace-and-space” playing style. Last season, Kanter was granted access to be an initiator during pick-and-rolls, post-ups down low, and on occasion a trailman for a perimeter shot.

Over time, Kanter evolved into the Thunder’s most valuable asset in the front-court issuing a 23.4 usage rate (4th-highest on team) and 24.0 PER (3rd-highest) last season.

With another season to maximize his ceiling as a No. 1 post-presence, this should also garner more playing time for Adams. The New Zealand product has improved in each of his three seasons in the league, developing as a highly efficient shooter – producing a 61.3 eFG percentage last season (highest on team). Adams may not fill-in as a starter, but his worth as a sixth man opens up how the Thunder’s offense operates (just when he’s on the floor he carries a 123 ORtg).

Weaknesses

Is the pressure to perform too high for Andre Roberson?: Oklahoma City was so spoiled when it came to depth at the SG/SF position last year. There was of course Durant, a 27 point and seven rebound per game machine that could play up to nearly four positions throughout a course of a game. But don’t forget a large majority of the Thunder’s success last season came through Dion Waiters.

Waiters might not have produced to the level Thunder fans wanted as three-point shooter – as he never shot better than 36 percent from the perimeter. Waiters filled-in admirably as a dependable scorer and perimeter defender, which made his role indispensable.

But now Waiters is in Miami and the only player left to replace his void is none other then 24-year old Andre Roberson. Roberson is entering his fourth season in the league and for the better part of his Thunder career, he’s been unable to make that necessary jump offensively. While Roberson started the most games (70) that he ever has in his brief NBA career, it’s tough to decipher how much progress he’s made.

Roberson resided more of the two-guard role last year splitting time with Waiters, and Durant on occasion if Donovan went with a bigger lineup. In a season where Roberson averaged roughly 22 minutes of action a night, he provided OKC with a 119 ORtg and 10.2 PER, both career-highs.

Ultimately the reason for Roberson’s high influx of minutes was largely due to his high shooting percentage. Per 100 possessions, Roberson connected on nearly 49.2 percent of shots from the field, moreover holding a 55.3 eFG percentage. While it’s more than likely Roberson continues to improve as a shooter. It’s worth mentioning that those numbers was with Waiters on his side.

Now that he is gone, the begging question is going to be, will Roberson suddenly evolve into that 12 points per game scorer that Thunder fans are finally hoping for?

May 24, 2016; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) reacts after a play against the Golden State Warriors during the third quarter in game four of the Western conference finals of the NBA Playoffs at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports

Most Important Player: Russell Westbrook, Victor Oladipo

It’s pretty clear who the best player on the Oklahoma City Thunder’s roster is. When he is fully healthy, point guard Russell Westbrook is sneakily the best player this league has to offer, maybe the most athletically gifted as well.

For eight NBA seasons, the five-time All Star has shown the basketball world what types of traits he brings to the table each night. A tireless driver at the rim, a ball-hawking defender on the wing, and a steady perimeter shooter. Westbrook’s overall game has what it takes to carry a diminished roster, like the one the Thunder currently has, into still a Western Conference threat.

We’ve seen it done before when Westbrook is at his best – bringing OKC to the cusp of the NBA Finals twice, and to the main event once. But we’ve also seen him and this Oklahoma City squad at their worst. Battling injuries and team chemistry on its way to missed playoff season in 2014-15.

Everyone knows how potent the Thunder can be if Westbrook plays at an MVP-caliber level. However, there’s more to it then just a healthy Westbrook to satisfy the Thunder’s slight rebuild. Newly-acquired free agent Victor Oladipo represents a large chunk of Oklahoma City’s plan. In his first three NBA seasons, Oladipo helped change the culture in Orlando, being the “star” to build around that now makes the Magic a sexy playoff pick out of the Eastern Conference.

Oklahoma City is hoping that Oladipo can translate into that impact scorer and flourishing wing player which can handle a high dose of minutes. Something, that Oklahoma City has lacked for several years. At the cusp, Oladipo is a much younger replacement for Dion Waiters and is a 16 point, five assist per game contributor. If Oladipo can provide a little more consistency with his jump-shot then that could be the beneficiary of Oklahoma’s City sporadic offense.

May 26, 2016; Oakland, CA, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) reacts after being called for an offensive foul against the Golden State Warriors in the fourth quarter in game five of the Western conference finals of the NBA Playoffs at Oracle Arena. The Warriors defeated the Thunder 120-111. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

How Season Ultimately ends

The Oklahoma City Thunder are right on the edge of the playoff picture, and it’s difficult to find a team with a wider range of possible outcomes.

If Westbrook misses any time or the offense falters even more than expected, we could be looking at a high-30s win total and a lottery berth. But there’s an alternate scenario in which organic improvement, Donovan’s lineup wizardry and a true MVP-quality season from Westbrook pushes Oklahoma City closer to 50 wins and a top-four seed in the West.

For now, the safe bet is expecting some serious offensive hiccups, a mostly sound defense and just enough improvement from the likes of Adams and Oladipo to sneak into the postseason as a No. 6 or No. 7 seed.

Prediction: 46-36, 3rd in Northwest, 6th in Western Conference