NASCAR Cup Series

With outsiders looming, contenders must step up

Published Aug. 26, 2009 3:36 p.m. ET

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Will the 2009 Chase for the Sprint Cup championship lineup resemble the standings after Saturday night's race at Bristol Motor Speedway, or will a couple of outsiders be title contenders when the tour arrives in New Hampshire for the start of the playoffs?

Only Tony Stewart, Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon are currently locked into the postseason. The magic number following Atlanta is 196. Any driver who is 196-points ahead of the 13th-place driver — or 195 if they have more wins (a stat which serves as the first tiebreaker) — clinches a spot in the Chase.


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Denny Hamlin, Carl Edwards and Kurt Busch, who are currently 230, 199 and 193 points, respectively, ahead of 13th-place Kyle Busch, appear secure. However, behind Kurt there's a logjam as there are six drivers within just 50 points of each other — and two hungry drivers waiting to pounce right behind them.

No one in the seventh through 12th-place range is safe, particularly with the last two race winners — Kyle Busch and Brian Vickers — gaining momentum in the final stretch. If any of the bottom six drivers have a hiccup between Atlanta and Richmond, Kyle Busch and Vickers will be there to capitalize.

Here are the six drivers that need to step up in the last two events to hold on to their Chase berths or risk facing a long, cold winter:

Ryan Newman — Newman is 84 points ahead of 13th-place Kyle Busch. Although he's been securely in the Chase Zone since finishing fourth at Richmond (week 10), he has failed to win a race this season. Where's his best opportunity to turn that around? Richmond International Raceway. Newman won the September Richmond race in 2003 and boasts five top-fives and nine top-10 finishes in 15 starts at the .75-mile track. Newman has seven poles at Atlanta Motor Speedway and tops the tour with an average starting position of 5.6. However, he's rarely taken advantage of that figure as he has just one top-five finish in 15 starts.




Greg Biffle — Biffle led 76 laps on Saturday and posted a solid fourth-place finish to gain two positions in the standings. Biffle is currently eighth in points and holds a 75-point advantage over 13th place. Like Newman, Biffle has also been winless in 2009. The eldest Roush racer qualified fifth at Atlanta in March, but was wrecked. His two prior Atlanta starts yielded an average finish of seventh. Biffle had a five race run where he finished eighth or better at Richmond, but that ended in 2006. He finished 17th at Richmond in May.

Juan Pablo Montoya — Through no fault of his own, Montoya has failed to follow his personal 12th-place or better game plan the last two weeks. JPM's average finish of 22.5 at Michigan and Bristol combined for his worst run since Atlanta in March. His tire misfortunes at Bristol and subsequent 25th-place finish knocked Montoya from seventh to ninth in the points and as a result he now sits 64 points ahead of 13th. Although he's polished his stock car skills this season, including a career-high 10th-place run at Richmond, Montoya has not improved on his fifth-place finish in his Atlanta debut. His average finish there is 24.4.

Mark Martin: — Martin shares a season-best four victories with Kyle Busch. But it's still not enough to lock either driver into the Chase for the moment. After Martin was way down in the points following consecutive engine failures at the start of the season, he rose as high as eighth in the standings following his Michigan win in June. However, his rollercoaster ride saw him fall to the Chase cellar after finishing on fumes at Michigan before rising to 10th place after Bristol — but still just 60 points ahead of 13th. Martin benefits from Hendrick equipment and the experience of winning at the final two tracks before the Chase.

Kasey Kahne — Of these six drivers, Kahne was the only one who was never a factor at Bristol. Kahne posted a surprising win at Sonoma and carried that momentum throughout most of the summer, but now he desperately needs a spark in the final two races before the Chase. Kahne knows how to win at Richmond — he pulled off the spring victory in 2005. And he won from the pole at Atlanta the following March. But with 18 points separating Kahne from a spot on the Chase bubble, the No. 9 team is extremely vulnerable.

Matt Kenseth — Kenseth's resume is impressive. He won the 2003 Cup championship, is one of two drivers (Johnson) to qualify for every Chase since the program was created after Kenseth spanked the field during his title run. And he not only won the Daytona 500 this year, but backed up his performance with a win the following week in California. While Kenseth admits the team has been in the Chase Zone longer than they deserve, he continues to hang on. While Kenseth has never won at Atlanta, five of his 18 career wins were earned on intermediate (1.5- to 2-mile) tracks. If his Chase hopes come down to Richmond, Kenseth will benefit from his history of one win, three top-five and nine top-10 finishes.

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