NASCAR Cup Series

The 2016 NASCAR Season Using The New 2017 Point Guidelines

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 11:08 p.m. ET

Fansided, Mike Hutton/FanSided via Beyond the Flag

Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

Once NASCAR announced changes to the point structure for all three touring series, an analysis of 2016 race results using the 2017 rules was bound to happen. We’re happy to oblige.

You knew somebody around NASCAR was going to do it. Somebody was going to take the new race format and points structure NASCAR announced during the recent media tour and apply it to the 2016 season. Beyond The Flag has done just that. What we’ve come away with was interesting in some respects and predictable in others.

We used the following methodology:

The Playoffs Begin

Spoiler #1: The 2016 playoff lineup would have been the same using the 2017 point system. Here however, would have been the seeding to begin the Round of 16, with new playoff points applied:

As we have seen throughout the years, each point is critical. The importance of the new playoff points for stage wins is evident in the above totals. As an example, Kyle Busch won four races going into the playoffs last year. This year, that earns him 20 playoff points. However, he also had six stage wins throughout the season — those six points could make a difference in subsequent rounds.

Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Some Drama Starts To Unfold

Obviously, the winners of the races will not change. That means that with Martin Truex, Jr.’s two wins in the first round of the playoffs last year at Chicago and Dover, he would again advance to the Round of 12. Kevin Harvick would also advance by winning at New Hampshire.

The drivers advancing are therefore:

Let’s look at some numbers from the drivers who got cut – paying close attention to one in particular:

Austin Dillon – 2073 / Tony Stewart – 2065 / Jamie McMurray – 2051 / Chris Buescher – 2035

Kyle Larson and Austin Dillon would have tied for the 12th and final spot! Ties are always broken based on number of wins, then number of 2nd-place finishes, and so on. Due to his win at Michigan and no wins for Dillon, Kyle Larson would have advanced. Dillon advanced based on points and Larson was eliminated last year.

Re-Seed Before Charlotte

The re-seeded point totals heading to Charlotte would have been:

Next: The Round Of 12

Credit: Glenn Andrews-USA TODAY Sports.

Biding Their Time – Talladega Looms Large

Had the point standings held their relative order throughout this round, Joey Logano would have had an early exit. He was seeded 9th after the first round, and got this round off to a lousy start with a 36th-place finish at Charlotte. While he recovered to earn a 3rd at Kansas, it was his win at Talladega which formally allowed him to advance. Jimmie Johnson (Charlotte) and Kevin Harvick (Kansas) also advanced from this round.

The point system is also starting to have an effect on results, namely:

Drivers advancing to the Round Of Eight are as follows:

As previously stated, eliminated drivers would have been:

Kyle Larson – 3095 / Brad Keselowski – 3081 / Martin Truex, Jr. – 3080 / Chase Elliott – 3073

Re-Seed Before Martinsville

Tensions are rising! A win in the next round seals your entry into the Championship! The all-important re-seed looks like this:

Next: The Round Of 8

Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Wins Matter – Period

If anyone still believes that wins do not matter much in NASCAR’s point system anymore, they need only observe this round of the 2016 playoffs. Consider for a moment that both Jimmie Johnson (4107 points) and Carl Edwards (4104 points) would not have advanced without their wins. This would have prevented Johnson from winning his 7th title and therefore altered NASCAR history, at least temporarily.

Fortunately for each of these drivers, wins DO matter and the final standings from the Round Of Eight are as follows:

This obviously brings us to the season finale, and our second spoiler — the same four drivers will battle for the championship.

Credit: Peter Casey-USA TODAY Sports

Same Old Boring Vanilla – Nothing New Here

To sum this all up, the same four drivers would have advanced to Homestead to battle for the Championship. The race results haven’t changed since November, so no lengthy analysis is necessary. Johnson lucked into a win that had Edwards’ name all over it, and is celebrating a seventh title.

Our thoughts on the new point system are these:

In the end, the product on the track will determine the ultimate success of this format. NASCAR needs a shot in the arm. I just hope that one doesn’t need a NASA pedigree and calculus textbook to keep on top of the numbers. Researching and pouring over the volume of data for this article was enough to make me ever apply for a job with timing & scoring.