NASCAR Cup Series

Talladega is the one to beat in Chase

Published Oct. 29, 2010 1:00 a.m. ET

foxsports

They don’t call it a wild-card race for nothing.

Talladega Superspeedway is a menacing beast, especially for those mired in the NASCAR Sprint Cup championship battle.

Need proof? Just take a look at the past performances of current Chase for the Sprint Cup drivers there.

Not one of the top five Chase drivers has an impressive string of recent finishes at Talladega entering Sunday’s race, the Amp Energy Juice 500. In fact, no driver in the series even has an average finish inside the top 10 at Talladega. Unlike other Chase tracks, where there’s usually a clear favorite and where two or three Chase drivers have produced a solid list of top 10s, Talladega is a heartbreaker.

It’s the kind of track where a potential win can spin out of control in sight of the finish line. It’s a track where leading late is dangerous and where drivers admit they’d prefer to be running anywhere but in the top position when the white flag waves.

Why? Because the restrictor-plate race, where air flow to the engine is limited, breeds the need for friends, for someone to work with in the draft – and because that draft makes it possible for someone to be pushing a driver to victory one moment, then to slingshot past him coming off that final corner. If no one picks up a driver, then he’s shuffled into a solo column inside multiple lines of cars and merely can watch as streams of drivers fly past at full speed.

On other tracks, a driver can lose a few positions on a lap if he chooses the wrong racing line. At the 2.66-mile Talladega track, he can find himself facing a field of bumpers in a matter of seconds.

It’s exciting, heart-pounding, frustrating and devastating racing at its best.

And it’s the site of one of the last four races in the championship run.

Points leader Jimmie Johnson of Hendrick Motorsports has been so consumed by this race he thought it was a week earlier.

Second-running Denny Hamlin of Joe Gibbs Racing, only six points behind Johnson, has talked about attaching himself to Johnson in the draft. Hamlin’s thinking is that if he finds trouble, odds are Johnson will be caught in the same mess and they will remain close in the title run.

Then there’s Kevin Harvick of Richard Childress Racing. He is third in the Chase, 62 points behind Johnson, but he is also the series’ most recent winner at Talladega (April 25).

Though others are still mathematically in contention, the Chase essentially comes down to those three drivers.

Unless, that is, something major happens to force them to finish deep in the pack Sunday. Then, what is already the closest Chase in the seven-year history of the format could become a free-for-all.

With that in mind, FOXSports.com takes a look at how the top five drivers in the Chase have historically fared at Talladega Superspeedway:

JIMMIE JOHNSON: He sits in the middle of the top three drivers in terms of overall performance at Talladega, but it’s clear he hasn’t enjoyed the ability to avoid setbacks at this track as he has at most Chase venues. Johnson has compiled two top-10 finishes in his past five races at Talladega, but he also has two of 30th or worse. He finished 31st in April, sixth a year ago and 30th in the 2009 spring event. He has won only once at Talladega, in 2006. In 17 career starts at the superspeedway, he has recorded seven top-10 finishes, four of them top fives, for an average finish of 17.8.

DENNY HAMLIN: He has the worst average finish (19.3) among the top three Chase contenders, but he’s coming off a good effort at Talladega. He finished fourth in April for his third top-five finish in nine starts there. Before that, though, Hamlin endured finishes of 38th, 22nd and 39th in the past five years. In nine appearances at Talladega, he has six finishes of 20th or worse.

KEVIN HARVICK: He’s coming off an even better finish at Talladega, a victory in April, and he enters Sunday’s race with the best average finish (15.5) among the top contenders and second-best among the top 12. Besides winning the spring event, he won the Budweiser Shootout non-points race at sister restrictor-plate track Daytona International Speedway. He’d rather build on his 2010 success on restrictor-plate tracks than match his previous Talladega finishes of 21st, 38th, 20th, 24th and 20th, which came just before the win. In 19 starts at Talladega, Harvick has eight top-10 finishes, four of them top fives.

KYLE BUSCH: Trailing the points leader by 172 points, Busch is out of title contention unless those in front of him suffer serious setbacks. Still, he’s looking to pick up ground on the front-runners. But based on his history – he has an average finish of 23.2 – Talladega won’t be a good place for Busch to do that. He has run well in several races there but often has failed to close the deal with a top finish. He won the spring race in 2008 and finished ninth there earlier this year for his only top-10 finishes in 11 starts. He has five finishes of 32nd or worse at the track.

JEFF GORDON: After a couple of weeks of setbacks, Gordon is seeking to get back on track and make up as much ground as possible. He’s 203 points behind Johnson, but only 31 behind Busch. Gordon has a proven history at Talladega, where he has won six times and has recorded an average finish of 16.7. He won both races there in 2007 but has not finished better than 19th in the five races since then. He has recent finishes of 22nd, 20th, 37th, 38th and 19th there. In 35 Talladega starts, Gordon has 16 top-10 finishes, 13 in the top five. He has led 821 laps at Talladega, by far the most among Chase contenders.

As for the rest of the Chase field, two drivers have strong finishing averages at the track. Tony Stewart, seventh in the Chase, has an average finish of 14.8 at Talladega, including a win and 12 top-10 finishes in 23 starts.

And don’t count out Kurt Busch. The Penske Racing driver, who is ninth in the standings, possesses the best average finish in Sunday’s field, 12.8. Though he has yet to win at Talladega, he has 13 top-10 finishes in 19 starts, six of them top fives.