NASCAR Cup Series

Sprint Cup Race No. 26: Richmond preview and prediction

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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A number of drivers are looking to solidify their spot in the Round of 16 as the Sprint Cup Series regular season draws to a close at Richmond International Raceway Saturday night.

When the green flag drops on the Federated Auto Parts 400 Saturday night (NBC Sports Network / MRN / SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) at Richmond International Raceway, there will be just 400 laps left in the 2016 Sprint Cup regular season. The 300 miler will make or break the dreams of drivers hoping to etch their names in the Field of 16 to vie for the title of NASCAR champion at the series’ top level.

RIR is the premier short track on the circuit and its 0.75 mile D-shaped configuration is sure to bring out some serious bumping and banging with so much on the line for a number of drivers hoping to make the Chase.

The biggest news coming out of NASCAR this week was a P3-level penalty to the Richard Childress Racing No. 31 team after it failed a post-race pass through of the Laser Inspection Station (LIS) platform. While crew chief Luke Lambert was socked with a $25,000 fine, the biggest hit came to driver Ryan Newman, who was docked 15 championship points. It was a letter of the law penalty despite Richard Childress arguing that an on-track incident caused the issue. They issued the following statement:

“We do not plan to appeal the penalty issued today to the No. 31 team. Our rear toe settings were well within specs during pre-race inspection. The car made contact with the outside wall during the race and there was clear damage to the right rear fender and tire. NASCAR has told us that the LIS standard is clear and the car must pass post-race inspection even if damage has been sustained.”

In any case, Newman goes from seven points behind Jamie McMurray (No. 1 Chevrolet) to 22 and just 23 from falling out of the Field of 16. Without a victory, he would miss the Chase and if he does, he will look back at the total of 25 points deducted from his total this year. He lost ten following Atlanta back in March although all will be forgiven if he takes the checkered flag first.

Many eyes will be on the lone driver who has a win, Chris Buescher (No. 34 Ford). He has not clinched a spot because he is barely hanging on to his top-30 spot in the points in order to qualify. Early season woes put him behind the eight-ball when he became the unlikely winner at Pocono on August 1 and while he managed to work himself into that final spot for the underfunded Front Row Motorsports, he is just 11 points ahead of David Ragan.

Buescher would clinch via a number of different scenarios without any help – finishing seventh and no laps led, eighth and led at least one lap, or ninth and led most laps. Help from Ragan would take some of the pressure off although a disastrous early race issue would make him the first driver under the current format to miss the Chase with a victory.

Kasey Kahne could be in the most precarious spot having the 16th and final spot with just a 25 point cushion. Over the course of his career at RIR he has one victory in 25 starts although that was back in 2005 as a member of Evernham Motorsports. He has five top-5 finishes including a fourth in the spring race which is his best of 2016, however, his average finish at the 0.75 mile track is 16.72. If he doesn’t find victory circle, a win by any of the following drivers could push him out:

David Ragan (0 Wins, 347 Points, 11 Points Behind of 30th) and Regan Smith (0 Wins, 330 Points, 28 Points Behind of 30th) need a win and help (to get inside the Top 30) in order to make the Chase.

PIT NOTES:
Jamie McMurray (No. 1 Chevrolet) and Greg Biffle (No. 16 Ford) will be making their 500th career starts on Saturday, becoming the 38th and 39th drivers to achieve the feat.

Chevy is the most successful manufacturer at Richmond with 37 wins with Kevin Harvick (No. 4) leading with three (’06, ’11 & ’13).

PREDICTION:
Kasey Kahne has not registered a win for Hendrick Motorsports in a shade over two years when he captured the Oral-B USA 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway on August 31, 2014. He is due and is coming off a solid seventh place finish a week ago at Darlington, not to mention a fourth in the spring race at RIR. A top-5 will work wonders if he is to make the Chase on points, even if someone outside the top-16 manages a victory, however, a win here could be the biggest of his career considering what is at stake.

LONG SHOT:
Ryan Blaney has done a lot with a little for the one-car Wood Brothers entry and he sits just outside the top-16 entering the final regular season race. He has been knocking on the door with a pair of top-5 and seven top-10s this season and has been running at the end in all but two races this season. He has yet to lead a lap although he only needs one – the last – to cash his ticket to the Chase.