NASCAR Cup Series

Preview: Bristol Motor Speedway

Published Mar. 17, 2010 1:00 a.m. ET

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Since this is the first of the season's short-track races, we'll have to ride some historical data as well as the current hot streaks to get a feel for this weekend's top drivers. Recent statistics at Bristol Motor Speedway will be an invaluable tool in setting this driver lineup. The loop stats in the table below span the last five years or 10 races at the Tennessee short track. This will be a dependable set of data to judge the best of the short track drivers in the series.

DRIVER	AVG FINISH	QUAL. PASSES	# of FASTEST LAPS	LAPS LED	LAPS IN TOP 15	DRIVER RATING
Marcos Ambrose	6.5	55	39	0	917	108.2
Kyle Busch	10.2	202	397	935	3,394	105.6
Jeff Gordon	11.2	194	166	108	4,076	100.1
Greg Biffle	11.1	205	216	220	3,956	99.3
Denny Hamlin	11.6	162	238	282	2,815	98.9
Matt Kenseth	13.3	190	228	706	4,020	97.5
Tony Stewart	15.6	159	226	769	2,852	94.7
Kevin Harvick	14.5	166	179	161	3,317	93.5
Kurt Busch	16.3	174	146	72	3,241	91.7
Mark Martin	14.8	60	113	242	2,016	89.5
Dale Earnhardt Jr.	8.5	180	108	36	2,970	89.0
Carl Edwards	12.2	108	220	282	3,196	88.2
Kasey Kahne	17.9	140	152	305	2,600	87.5
Jeff Burton	16.4	158	204	265	2,887	87.2
Ryan Newman	18.4	206	114	27	3,253	87.0
Clint Bowyer	15.3	147	111	81	2,345	84.9
Jimmie Johnson	18.1	157	145	210	3,121	82.5
Elliott Sadler	22.0	84	77	42	2,235	80.4
David Reutimann	18.5	98	26	1	1,059	79.2
Juan Pablo Montoya	19.5	113	33	0	1,419	74.1

No single manufacturer or race team rules Bristol Motor Speedway. There has been as much parity at this track as any on the circuit in recent seasons. The closest thing we have to a monopoly at BMS would have to be Joe Gibbs Racing. Kyle Busch swept both Bristol races in 2009 for the Toyota stable. This snapped a string of Ford and Chevrolet wins at the small oval the past few years.

The younger Busch will likely get a strong challenge from his older brother Kurt in this event. Entering this weekend's race the driver of the No. 2 Dodge boasts five career wins at the Tennessee bull ring. Coming off the momentum of his first win of the season at Atlanta, the elder Busch should be a force to contend with in the Food City 500.

The driver that will be under the magnifying glass on Sunday will likely be Kevin Harvick. He enters this race as the championship standings leader, and he's still looking for his first win of the 2010 season. Harvick won this event in 2005 and he's always been a fierce competitor on the Sprint Cup Series short tracks. That combination could add up to victory number one for the No. 29 team this Sunday.

We'll lay out the streaking drivers and the short-track experts, and give you the drivers to dominate your fantasy league at Bristol Motor Speedway.

The Contenders - Drivers in the hunt for the win

Kevin Harvick – The No. 29 team is off to a great start this season, despite the fact that Harvick has yet to roll into victory lane. Can he break into the win column this week at Bristol? We certainly believe so. Harvick won this event in 2005, and he finishes in the Top 5 in 50 percent of his Bristol starts. With the Richard Childress Racing veteran driver off to one of his best starts in years, that short-track excellence should be on full display in the Food City 500.

Kurt Busch – Now that Busch has scratched the win column for the first time this season, he can concentrate on winning more races and challenging for this season's championship. Busch is tied with Jeff Gordon for active wins at BMS with five total. He used to dominate this track back when he was racing for owner Jack Roush. Busch will run up front and be a factor in the outcome on Sunday. His new crew chief Steve Addington led brother Kyle to the season sweep at this short track last season.

Mark Martin – In the last race at Bristol Motor Speedway we saw the veteran driver Martin in a race-long battle with Kyle Busch for the win. While he led 240 laps in the Sharpie 500, the driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet had to settle for the runner-up finish. Martin won both pole positions at BMS last season, and he finished no worse than sixth in those two events. Since moving to Hendrick Motorsports, he has become a very dangerous driver on this small oval.

Kyle Busch – We're still waiting for Rowdy Busch to blast off the launching pad this season. It has yet to happen to this point, but Bristol Motor Speedway presents the perfect opportunity for the No. 18 team to get back to victory lane. Busch won both events at BMS in 2009, so he has now won or finished runner-up in four of the last six races at Bristol. With well over 900 laps led for his career at the Tennessee bull ring, how can Busch not have his best race of the season on Sunday?

Solid Plays - Drivers who are a near lock for a Top 10 and have an outside shot at winning

Clint Bowyer – Bowyer's loop stats here aren't very impressive, but his finish stats at the small oval are outstanding. Somehow, the driver of the No. 33 Chevrolet has a nose for the front in the closing laps at Bristol Motor Speedway. With four Top 10's in eight career starts at the facility entering this weekend's race, we have very high confidence in Bowyer. Short tracks have been by far his best ovals on the circuit, so roll Bowyer with confidence in the Food City 500.

Denny Hamlin – Speaking of drivers that are good at short tracks, we can't exclude Hamlin from that list. While the 2010 season hasn't gotten off to a good start for the No. 11 team, we expect the Joe Gibbs Racing star to buck that trend on Sunday. Hamlin carries a four-race Top 10 streak at BMS into this weekend's race. With 18 career Top-10 finishes in 25 Sprint Cup Series short track starts; you can see the reason for our optimism in Hamlin at Bristol Motor Speedway. A 72 percent Top 10 rate is just about as “automatic” as you can get in NASCAR.

Jimmie Johnson – Johnson's career numbers at BMS are dismal by the defending Sprint Cup champion's standards. However, if the No. 48 team's performance at Bristol last season is any indication, there's good reason for optimism this weekend. Johnson led close to 200 laps and collected a pair of Top 10's at the high banks of Bristol in 2009. With two victories already this season, Johnson and the Hendrick Motorsports team are performing at their peak right now.

Matt Kenseth – A re-energized Kenseth is now runner-up in the championship standings coming into this event. The crew chief change at the No. 17 team appears to have had the desired affect that Jack Roush and Kenseth were looking for. The veteran driver is a two-time winner at Bristol Motor Speedway, and he sports 12 career Top 10's at the small oval. Kenseth qualified fifth and finished 10th in his last race at BMS, and we expect an even better performance on Sunday.

Sleepers - Drivers with good history at Bristol who can provide a solid finish

Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Earnhardt has proven to be a volatile fantasy racing play thus far this season, but there's good reason to believe that the No. 88 team should be a dependable play in the Food City 500. Earnhardt has managed a 55 percent Top 10 rate at BMS over his career, and he has a pair of Top 10's in four starts with owner Rick Hendrick. While the NASCAR icon has been under fire since moving to the Hendrick super-stable, he's managed a degree of consistency at this facility.

Kasey Kahne – The Richard Petty Motorsports star is not known for his short track racing abilities, but he clearly has them. Kahne has faired particularly well at BMS since the track was reconfigured and paved a few seasons ago. He has a pole and three Top-10 finishes in his last five visits to the speedway. Kahne qualified and finished fifth in this event one year ago.

Jeff Gordon – Gordon used to be the king of short-track racing in NASCAR several years ago, now he's no more than just a good fantasy play at tracks like Bristol. The five-time BMS winner hasn't rolled into victory lane at the half-mile oval since 2002, but he's managed to post strong fantasy racing numbers there since then. Four of Gordon's last seven visits to Bristol have netted Top-5 finishes. He's sports a strong 59 percent Top 10 rate for his career at the famous short track.

Jeff Burton – The Richard Childress Racing veteran owns one career victory (2008) and six Top-10 finishes at Bristol since becoming a driver for Chevrolet and this famous racing stable. Burton finished eighth in this event one year ago, and the stats show that the No. 31 team tends to perform better in the spring race at this short track than the summer event. Burton has started the season well, and he should challenge the Top 10 in the Food City 500.

Scott Speed – Entering this week's race at Bristol Motor Speedway, the No. 82 Red Bull Racing team is surging to start the season. Speed finds himself ranked 11th in the championship standings after the Atlanta race. With one Top 10 and three Top 20's to start the season, Speed is proving his fantasy racing worth in 2010. He has only two career starts at BMS, but those were 28th- and 15th-place efforts last season. With any luck at all, Speed should post another finish like his solid Top 15 in last season's Sharpie 500 this weekend.

Marcos Ambrose – Another driver to consider this weekend if you're looking for deep league help is Ambrose. The No. 47 team posted 10th- and third-place finishes at Bristol last season, and clearly racing at the half-mile bull ring really appeals to the Aussie. Ambrose and the JTG Daugherty Racing team should have the setup for this Sunday's race pretty well dialed in before the team even unloads the car this weekend.

Regan Smith – The pleasant surprise of the early season so far has been Smith and his No. 78 Furniture Row Racing team. They are running Richard Childress cars and equipment, and have access to RCR's testing data. This has been a big help for this young driver. Smith is coming off a Top 15 run at Atlanta a couple weeks ago and is arriving at Bristol with some momentum. He owns four career starts at BMS with a best finish of 14th. Smith should be able to challenge that mark on Sunday afternoon.

Flops - Drivers to avoid at all costs

Joey Logano – This is more of a fantasy racing “downgrade” than a flop. After starting the season with Top 10's at Fontana and Las Vegas, Logano sustained a setback with a wreck at Atlanta two weeks ago. It may be tough to get that momentum back, as the No. 20 team travels to the high banks of Bristol this weekend. The Joe Gibbs Racing prodigy has struggled in his two prior starts at BMS. Logano finished outside the Top 30 in both Bristol races in 2009 with one DNF.

Sam Hornish Jr. – Hornish is usually a fantasy racing bright spot when the series is visiting intermediate ovals, but he has to be pessimistic about the No. 77 team's chances at Bristol Motor Speedway this weekend. Among drivers with four starts or more at the Tennessee short track, Hornish has the worst average finish position with a robust 33.0. If you're in weekly lineup leagues, you'll want to pass on this Penske Racing driver until the series returns to 1.5-mile tracks.

Tony Stewart – Stewart has been curiously “invisible” since the season started. In 2009, he roared on the scene with his new race team and took control of the championship standings early in the year. Not so in 2010. Smoke has been trying to get traction and find consistency ever since Daytona. He has two Top 10's in the first two races, and he's only led 7 laps in the first four races. Stewart's Bristol numbers in last four years doesn't inspire much hope for the Food City 500. He only has two Top-10 finishes in his last eight Bristol starts.

A.J. Allmendinger – Allmendinger is fresh off a Top 10 at Atlanta, so it's really difficult to put him in the flops list this week. However, any momentum gained by that great run at Atlanta will likely be lost given the off-week we just endured. Allmendinger has been less than inspiring in his five career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway. The driver of the No. 43 Ford has one Top 20 and four finishes outside the Top 30 in those efforts. That's simply too risky to put fantasy racing hopes on this weekend.

Article first appeared 3/16/10