NASCAR Cup Series

NASCAR: Five Drivers Most Likely To Win At Talladega

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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May 1, 2016; Talladega, AL, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Matt Kenseth (20) leads the field during the GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

The most exciting elimination race of the Chase is up next as NASCAR heads to Talladega. Take a look at five drivers who could win on Sunday.

It’s one of the biggest weekends for NASCAR and it’s definitely one of the biggest races of the Chase. The elimination race for the Round of 12 is upon us with Talladega looming.

It’s the uncertainty of Talladega that excites fans throughout the afternoon. Some drivers rise to the occasion and deliver a clutch performance while others fall to the split-second mayhem that comes along with restrictor plate racing.

As the Cup Series gets ready for the second elimination race of the season, it’s important to note that Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick will have nothing to worry about, as they’ve both collected wins this round.

As for the rest of the field, things get interesting.

Everyone else in the Chase will be on high alert to make sure they keep their season alive and advance to the next round. While drivers like Matt Kenseth, Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards have a decent points lead over the rest of the competition, just one accident could end their chances.

Chase Elliott looks to be the only driver that will need a win to get in while Brad Keselowski and Denny Hamlin can race their way in on points.

Let’s look at five drivers who could win this Sunday.

All stats gathered from racing-reference.info.

Apr 8, 2016; Fort Worth, TX, USA; Sprint Cup Series driver Brad Keselowski (2) during practice for the Duck Commander 500 at Texas Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

The Favorite: Brad Keselowski

Stats at Talladega:

It’s crazy to think about Talladega serving as a driver’s best track, but that’s the case for Brad Keselowski. He’s earned more wins there than at any other track in his career and owns the second highest average finish among active drivers.

It started early for Keselowski. He won his first race at the track back in 2009 after leading only the final lap. He won again in 2012 and won the Chase race in 2014 to get himself to the Round of 8. Then, earlier this season, he won a thrilling event at the track after leading 46 laps and surviving a race filled with wrecks.

He’s finished in the top-10 in nine of his 15 starts at Talladega and will need a big performance this weekend.

Heading into Sunday, Keselowski–after getting into a wreck at Kansas–will be seven points below the cut line. He won’t necessarily have to win the race, but he’ll need to be near the front of the pack to earn a spot in the next round.

With two wins in his last four races at Talladega, Keselowski will have a great shot this weekend. He’s your favorite heading into Sunday.

Sep 10, 2016; Richmond, VA, USA; Sprint Cup Series driver Denny Hamlin (11) races during the Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond International Raceway. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-USA TODAY Sports

Contender No. 1: Denny Hamlin

Stats at Talladega:

Denny Hamlin is one of the most underrated restrictor plate racers in NASCAR today. He may have just one win at each plate track in the sport, but it’s his consistency that makes him a threat to win.

Hamlin just picked up his only win at Daytona this season when he edged Martin Truex Jr. to win the Daytona 500. His only win at Talladega didn’t come that long ago either as he picked up a victory in the 2014 spring race.

One of Hamlin’s most impressive stats at Talladega comes in the form of his laps led. He’s led at least a lap in 16 of his 21 starts at the track, which is another example of how he tends to make it to the front quite often.

Throughout the Chase this season, he has no top-5’s and just two top-10’s. With finishes of 30th and 15th in the Round of 12, he finds himself six points below the cut line.

Talladega was the the track that ended Hamlin’s championship hopes in 2015. He’ll look to avoid elimination this Sunday with a solid run.

Sep 9, 2016; Richmond, VA, USA; Sprint Cup Series driver Matt Kenseth (20) during practice for the Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond International Raceway. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-USA TODAY Sports

Contender No. 2: Matt Kenseth

Stats at Talladega:

Throughout his 19-year career, Matt Kenseth has only won at Talladega once, but he’s accomplished some impressive things at the track.

He’s led laps in 26 of 33 starts with his best day coming back in the spring of 2013, where he led 142 of 192 laps despite finishing eighth. That race came during a stretch of five straight Talladega races with at least 20 laps led.

He’s finished fourth or better in six races at the track and earned his lone win there in the 2012 Chase race when he led 33 laps.

Kenseth has struggled at Talladega recently. In five of his last six races, he’s finished no better then 20th, with the lone exception coming in the form of a second-place finish in 2014. He led 29 laps in this year’s spring race but was taken out in a scary wreck that saw him go airborne on the backstretch.

He’s quietly served as one of the best drivers in the Chase this year with two ninth-place finishes, a fifth-place finish and two second-place finishes.

As of right now, Kenseth has the most points among drivers not locked into the next round. Expect him to see him in the Round of 8 for the second time under the current Chase format.

Aug 21, 2016; Bristol, TN, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Kevin Harvick (4) during the rain delayed Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports

Contender No. 3: Kevin Harvick

Stats at Talladega:

With Kevin Harvick serving as one of NASCAR’s best 1.5-mile track drivers, it’s odd to find him on a list of most likely winners at Talladega, but the fact of the matter is that he’s been consistent there for the past few years.

Since 2013, Harvick has finished in the top-15 in six out of seven races with three top-10’s and at least a lap led in all but one race. He’s only won one race at Talladega and it came back in 2010 after leading just two laps.

Most people remember Harvick in last year’s Chase race for what he did late. He was sitting near the middle of the pack and was below the cut line with a few laps left. He couldn’t keep pace with other drivers on the restart so it appeared that he intentionally made contact with Bayne, sparking a major wreck.

While Harvick already has a spot in the Round of 8 this year, he’ll still be looking for a win. He’s completed his last six races at Talladega and should run another solid race.

Aug 28, 2016; Brooklyn, MI, USA; Sprint Cup Series driver Chase Elliott (24) races during the Pure Michigan 400 at the Michigan International Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

The Underdog: Chase Elliott

Stats at Talladega:

Chase Elliott is most likely going to need a win to move on to the Round of 8 this weekend. After 33rd and 31st-place finishes in the first two races of the Round of 12, he sits 25 points below the cut line.

Elliott has raced in three restrictor plate races in his Cup Series career. He was involved in an accident at both Daytona races but had a nice run at Talladega earlier in the year.

After winning the pole, he managed to get out front for 27 laps. In the process, he used a late surge and brought a damaged car to the finish line in fifth place, serving as one of the 21 drivers to stay on the lead lap.

While Elliott will be facing the biggest challenge of his rookie season this Sunday, it’s something that he can overcome. We’ve seen him stay cool and collected throughout the season and we’ve seen him compete for wins week in and week out.

I’m interested to see how he responds now that he’s in a must-win situation. He’s been hard on himself throughout the year but there’s always been room for him to improve after each race. He has to get the job done on Sunday or his championship hopes will come to a close. Watch for Elliott to make his presence known again this weekend and compete near the front of the pack.