NASCAR Cup Series

Monster pressure: For several drivers, it's bring it or go home

Published Sep. 25, 2014 5:38 p.m. ET

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Jared Turner

For the first time in the 11-year history of the Chase for the Sprint Cup, four drivers will be formally axed from title contention with more than half of the 10 playoff races still remaining.

Needless to say, this isn't the kind of history that any of the drivers in danger of not advancing to the next round hope to make in Sunday's AAA 400 at Dover International Speedway.

With Dover the last of three tracks in this year's brand new Chase Challenger Round, only 12 of the 16 drivers who are currently championship-eligible will still be in the hunt when the Sprint Cup Series rolls into Kansas Speedway next weekend for the opening event of the three-race Contender Round.

Only Team Penske teammates Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano, winners of the first two Chase races, respectively, are locks for the Contender Round, so that leaves 10 slots open for 14 drivers.

In all reality, though, the drivers behind the Penske boys and holding down positions three through seven will move on unless the bottom falls out Sunday, based on their points cushion over 13th place.

But from eighth place on back to 16th, it's a mad cluster, with the two drivers tied for eighth -- Matt Kenseth and Carl Edwards -- only eight points ahead of Denny Hamlin and Greg Biffle, who are tied for 13th. Meanwhile, Hamlin and Biffle, who are the first drivers outside the transfer group, is only four points ahead of 16th-place Aric Almirola.

The bottom line: It's anyone's best guess who will ultimately survive and advance among the final nine drivers on the Chase Grid.

Only this much is certain: Sunday's race at Dover -- a high-banked, 1-mile track notorious for major wrecks -- is bound to be a wild one.

"It's not a forgiving racetrack," said six-time champion Jimmie Johnson, who is fourth in the standings and likely a safe bet to advance. "A small mistake there can clean an individual out, or four or five, so I think it's going to be an exciting race, especially with five or six drivers that have a lot of pressure on them right now."

Chief among the drivers in the pressure cooker is Almirola, who probably needs a mini-miracle to leapfrog four drivers and snare the final transfer spot.

Then, again, Almirola is only 10 points behind two drivers tied for 12th -- Ryan Newman and Kasey Kahne -- so it's not implausible for the Richard Petty Motorsports driver to advance under the right circumstances.

"Obviously our goal is to transfer into that next round, but we can't really worry about what everybody else is doing," said Almirola, whose hopes of reaching the Contender Round were crippled by a blown engine two weekends ago at Chicagoland Speedway. "All we can do is worry about ourselves. That's kind of what's gotten us to this point is we've focused the last month-and-a-half on doing the best job we can in scoring the maximum amount of points that we can each weekend, and I think three out of the last four races we've had top 10s, and at Chicago we were running sixth with 30 laps to go before our engine let go. So we've been doing a really good job of running competitively, and we have to just continue that."

Almirola doesn't anticipate being overly aggressive to help his cause, especially at a track as treacherous at Dover.

"It's not gonna do me any good to try harder or anything like that," Almirola said. "I try as hard as I possibly can every week. Maybe take a little more risk on restarts and stuff. I did that at Loudon when it got close to the end. I took a couple risks on some restarts and went on the outside. I think one time I was outside of four-wide and made a few passes that way.

"So there are times when you realize you need to be aggressive if you're gonna get some spots and get a good finish. I think the same will hold true at Dover."

Sitting 10th in the standings, 11 points ahead of Almirola but hardly out of the danger zone, is AJ Allmendinger, who joined Almirola this season as a first-time Chase driver.

Widely considered a long shot to reach the Contender Round when the Chase started, Allmendinger has proven his doubters wrong.

His focus at Dover is squarely his No. 47 JTG Daugherty Racing team -- not the drivers with whom he's fighting for a spot in the next round.

"Things aren't different for us this weekend. My goal would be no different than if we were 20-something in the points," said Allmendinger, who is just seven points clear of Hamlin and Greg Biffle, who are tied in the standings and the first two drivers outside the top 12. "We just have to have a solid weekend. We haven't put together a good weekend from start to finish in a while. We have pieced it together and at times have had a good result.

"Sometimes the first part of weekend is good and the second is not. We need a good overall weekend. I don't care what's going on around me and where Ryan Newman or Greg Biffle or any of those guys are. If we handle our business like we are capable of, we should be in."

Newman, who along with Kahne is one point behind Allmendinger and six ahead of Hamlin and Biffle, is zeroed in on avoiding mistakes at all costs this weekend.

"For us to transfer into the Contender 12 Round, we are going to have to be on top of our game," Newman said. "Dover is a very demanding track but it is usually a track where once we get our car handling right, it stays right because of the concrete. We shouldn't see the big transition of balance and grip that can really change your day. But if we cannot get the Quicken Loans car to handle, Dover is one of the most frustrating places to race.

"There is no doubt, Dover is going to be an exciting race to watch, and I believe we will have a car capable of contending not only for a transfer spot but a race win. It's a track I know how to win on, and I'm going to do everything I can to make sure our bid for a championship continues."

As for Hamlin, a driver who looked like a safe bet to advance before a disastrous outing at Loudon last Sunday, it's all about forgetting that and pulling out all the stops to make the next round.

"Our FedEx team can certainly advance to the next segment, but now we need a little help on Sunday," he said. "It's obviously disappointing to have a mechanical issue take us out of a good finish at New Hampshire, but it's important to put that in the past and focus on what we can control this weekend at Dover. We have had some speed at the track the last few trips there, and we'll need that again this weekend."

VIDEO: Radioactive from Loudon, where Hamlin can be heard saying some choice words

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