NASCAR Cup Series

Keselowski the obvious favorite, but others plan to stand in his way

Published Sep. 20, 2014 9:07 a.m. ET

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After scoring the dramatic win in last weekend's race at Chicagoland Speedway, Brad Keselowski enters this weekend's action at New Hampshire Motor Speedway already locked in the next round of the Chase for the Sprint Cup.

Locked into the Contender 12 thanks to last week's win, Keselowski seemingly has nothing to gain by scoring another win Sunday at New Hampshire. But the driver of the No. 2 Team Penske Ford is not resting on his laurels.

Keselowski won the July race at NHMS in dominant fashion, is coming off back-to-back wins, the No. 2 Ford was fastest in Friday's lone practice session, and he will start Sunday's race from the pole after setting a track record in qualifying.

The strength of Keselowski and his Paul Wolfe-led team have certainly caught the attention of his Chase competitors.

Fellow Chase driver and six-time champion Jimmie Johnson expects Keselowski to repeat his performance from July and to be one of the cars to beat on Sunday.

"I would expect him to be in a similar position for two reasons," Johnson explained. "One, he had so much more pace than the rest of the field here in the spring race that it's hard to believe that everybody could cover that gap and get back to him. And then when we went to Richmond, which wasn't too long ago and is a short track, they had that form there, too. So, I'd definitely say those guys are tough to handle."

Denny Hamlin, who has two NHMS wins, joked Keselowski might be using his old car to find success at the Magic Mile.

"Somehow my car has disappeared and it it's got a 2 on the side of it now," Hamlin joked when asked about his 2012 Chase victory at NHMS. "You just show up and your car is just really fast and you just can't do anything wrong and you're fastest in every practice. You just know what's going to happen."

For Keselowski, being locked into the next round of the Chase is big, but not big enough to throw caution to the wind and experiment.

"I don't see anything or crazy ideas because you want to stay in a rhythm and work with the pieces you know and not get lost," said Keselowski. "So it's more or less if we have a part that is a quarter of a pound lighter and we're like, 'Oh, we think it will work, but we don't know. It might break in the middle of the race,' and we say, 'Alright, just throw it on there.' Where probably last week it was the opposite mentality."

Despite being the favorite in the garage, Keselowski also has to beat a string of 13 different winners in the last 13 NHMS races.

Dating back to June 2008, there have been no repeat winners at the 1.05-mile oval.

Keselowski is not the only Chase driver on that list, however. Fellow Chase drivers Matt Kenseth, Denny Hamlin, Kasey Kahne, Ryan Newman, Jimmie Johnson, Joey Logano, Greg Biffle and Kurt Busch all scored wins at New Hampshire during that 13-race stretch.

However, with nothing to lose and a sixth trophy, check and Victory Lane appearance on the line, Keselowski knows he has a freedom that the other 15 Chase drivers do not have.

"I kind of feel exactly like we did at Richmond. We've got two races to, I don't want to say goof off, but with no consequences and that's enjoyable.  Everybody loves it when all you can do is win," he said. "It's like getting a free lottery ticket. If you lose it doesn't matter and you have the potential to win something big. We're gonna have fun with it and I think we have the ability to capitalize with it with strong cars and a great team, and hopefully pull off a sweep here."

Although he has two straight wins, led Friday's practice and put the No. 2 Ford on the pole for Sunday's race, Keselowski believes it is too early to name him the favorite to win the championship in the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

"We're so early in this thing and with the resets that there are the success of today really means nothing come Homestead," said Keselowski. "Each bracket with each reset, it looks like an NCAA bracket. In that sense to compare it, it would be like if a great NCAA team beat a lower-ranked team it doesn't really matter when you get to the next round. It's great. It's positive momentum and everything you want to do and think you should do, but when it resets it resets and nothing that you've done in the past really matters as long as you're eligible for the bracket. I'm a long, long ways from using the word favorite or feeling overly confident."

Despite Keselowski's strength and nothing-to-lose attitude, his Chase competition is not going to lie down and let him get away.

Just as Keselowski did last weekend at Chicagoland, a victory Sunday at NHMS for any of the other 15 Chase drivers would mean a guaranteed spot in the Contender 12.

However, Kevin Harvick -- who has had one of the strongest cars all season -- knows consistency can still get the job done and help a team like his work their way into the second and third rounds of the Chase. 

"I think the whole winning thing is really overrated," said Harvick. "Obviously you want to win. You want to win every week and you show up to try to win, but you can't take any unnecessary chances and that is kind of the box that the point system puts you in. It's good and bad." 

Harvick pointed to last weekend's race at Chicagoland Speedway where he was battling Kyle Larson for the lead in the final stages of the race. The driver of the No. 4 indicated with Larson and Keselowski both running faster, he was put in a "pretty vulnerable spot" and decided it was better to have a strong points day rather than risk throwing it all away racing for the win.

"You don't want to turn a top-five finish into a 25th-place finish because the risk versus reward is not there, especially in the first round (of the Chase)," he said. "If you are in desperation mode and you are in the third round of one of the rounds and outside looking in, then the circumstances change. It's all very circumstantial as far as what you need to do."

Harvick, who qualified third for Sunday's race, pointed out the risk-versus-reward factor and circumstances surrounding that change on a weekly basis in this new Chase format.

So, while Keselowski may appear the favorite early in the weekend at Loudon and early in the 10-race Chase for the Sprint Cup, it may be a bit too early to ink his name in the championship slot on the Chase Grid. But there is no doubt he is off to a great start. 

VIDEO: Brad Keselowski captures the pole for Sunday's Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire

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