NASCAR Cup Series

It could be a rough ride at Richmond

Published Apr. 27, 2011 1:00 a.m. ET

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Darrell Waltrip

So we are eight races into the year, and I think some guys are getting a little desperate about how their season is going. I just have this feeling we'd all better buckle in tight Saturday night at Richmond because it could be a wild and crazy night. There’s that old saying, “Desperate people do desperate things,” and I really have this feeling we will see that in action Saturday night under the lights.

There are guys out there who haven’t won yet this year who were expected to. There are teams that haven’t lived up to their goals yet. Guys have had a week off to review things. There’s a lot of pent-up aggression. So what better place to let it all out than a short track, right? Richmond is a fast track while at the same time being a short track. Think of Richmond as the biggest short track we go to.

One of the most frequent questions I get from fans is, “Who do you think will be the next first-time winner?” That’s a great question, especially when you see we have had so many different winners so far this season. Regan Smith and Paul Menard are the two who, to me, are really close to breaking through to their first Victory Lane. Add into that AJ Allmendinger and Marcos Ambrose, because I think they are on the verge of winning, too.

Now, that said, I am not really concerned with the guys trying to get their first win. Take a look at the guys who have won in the past who haven’t yet. At the top of that list has to be Denny Hamlin in the No. 11. The young man won eight races last year and should have won the championship in 2010, but it slipped through his fingers. Now Denny is 0-for-8 so far in 2011.

Tony Stewart always wins races, but he is struggling, too. Jeff Burton is another one on that list. To compound his problems, Burton isn’t even in the top 20 in points right now and that’s not a good sign for him. Add into that Jamie McMurray, his teammate, Juan Pablo Montoya, and also Greg Biffle and Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Some of these guys are getting into a bind and might have to pull a rabbit out of their hat. History tells us that only one driver since 2005 has made the Chase after being out of the top 20 in points after eight races — Matt Kenseth in 2005.

Now factor in our new point system for 2011, and I think the chances of coming back from outside the top 20 and making the Chase are slimmer than they have ever been. Some folks say, “Yeah, but they could get on a fantastic run and turn things around.” Well how can they do that? Is there some magic switch they are going to throw at Richmond and they’ll automatically be a brand-new and improved team that will win races?

That’s not reality. It simply doesn’t happen like that. The No. 88 team is the perfect example. Car owner Rick Hendrick made changes in the offseason. It’s working, but look at the slow progression. I’ve told you all many times you have to build a solid foundation. The cliche “You have to walk before you can run” is appropriate.

You have to work on being consistent. They are doing that. They have to get consistent top-15 finishes. They’ve done that. Then you shoot for consistent top 10s, and they are doing that. Once you can consistently finish in the top five of races, well wins are just around the corner. Dale Jr. and that team are knocking on the door. They are real, real close, but it’s taken them eight races to get there.

That doesn’t mean that owners aren’t immune from taking drastic steps. The old crew chief swap simply has to be in the back of the mind — or now maybe the front — of some of these car owners. Again, look what it did for Dale Jr., and history shows us what it did for Kevin Harvick. There are other examples in the past where it’s worked wonders immediately.

Swapping crew chiefs around is nothing new, so I am sure there are probably two or three teams that might be a couple of races away from doing it themselves. Let’s face it, these guys have a hard stretch coming up. After having Easter off, these teams go 12 consecutive weeks before another break. Even more immediately, these next four races are make or break.

You’ve got Richmond, Darlington, Dover and Charlotte these next four weekends. Richmond is tight, close racing on a small track. Then you go to Darlington, where we all know anything can happen and usually does. Then we head north to Dover with its 1-mile concrete. Some teams struggle on that concrete. Then there is no tougher, grueling race out there than the 600 long miles at Charlotte.

So we have a lot of teams that have got to turn things around immediately. Now the bad news for them is that these next four races are probably the toughest four consecutive races they’ll have to face for awhile. It all starts at Richmond on Saturday night.

In addition to it being a tight place to race, we have a tight point battle with this new system that was implemented this year. Now, the other thing to remember is that these cats all come right back here in September for the last race to set the field for the 2011 Chase. So if you have problems this weekend, you'd best get them figured out before you come back, because your whole season possibly could be riding on it.

As I said at the start, I do believe this is going to be one of the wildest and craziest Richmonds we’ve seen in a long time. Again, desperate people do desperate things and there are some desperate teams out there. There will be teams that roll into Richmond trying to correct their whole season in one race — and in my 40 years in this sport I’ve never seen that work out that well.

So it should be fun. There will lots of action all weekend at Richmond. Thursday night is the Denny Hamlin Charity on Thursday night. I am the Grand Marshal and will wave the green flag. Don’t forget that this week the Nationwide race is on Speed. Rick Allen, my brother, Michael, and I will bring you all the action.

So last Friday night I did the 200th truck race on Speed from Nashville and now turn around and do the very first Nationwide race on Speed from Richmond. That’s pretty cool. I am sure Rick Allen will do his best to try to keep Michael and me under control.

Then what can you say about Saturday night? I still maintain it will be a rough and rocky road for a number of these teams in ol’ Richmond.
 

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