NASCAR Cup Series

How Chase hopefuls stack up at Michigan

Published Aug. 11, 2010 1:00 a.m. ET

foxsports

While the field of drivers comfortably in the championship-determining Chase field has grown, the battle for the final spot is more intense than ever.

That makes the next four races crucial for both Mark Martin and Clint Bowyer.

Martin and his Hendrick Motorsports team currently hold that 12th and final position that will make the Chase for the Sprint Cup following the next four races. Bowyer and his Richard Childress Racing group sit 10 points back after a somewhat disastrous outing last weekend at Watkins Glen International.

And they’re not the only ones with a shot at the Chase. Stewart-Haas Racing’s Ryan Newman is 83 points outside of the top 12 and Earnhardt Ganassi Racing’s Jamie McMurray is 94 points back. They’re the only drivers within 100 points of Martin. Hendrick’s Dale Earnhardt Jr. is 16th in the standings, 122 points back, and Richard Petty Motorsports’ Kasey Kahne sits 17th and 133 points back.

Ahead of Martin sits Roush Fenway Racing’s Greg Biffle, who is 112 points ahead of 13th position, and then it’s another 63 points up to his teammate (Matt Kenseth) in 10th position.

While it’s certainly possible to make up significant ground in the coming weeks, those drivers deeper in the field not only need to step up and perform, but are also dependent on miscues by others. Bowyer could overtake Martin on his own merit, but the same cannot be said for the others deeper in the field. They need Martin and Bowyer — or Biffle and Kenseth — to make a misstep, to suffer a mechanical failure or to get caught up in someone else’s mistake.

This weekend, the drivers take another shot at moving into Chase contention, this time at Michigan International Speedway. The 2-mile track features 18-degree banking in the turns. Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin won the most recent race there, but several of the drivers nearer to the top of the standings have found success at the track. Penske Racing’s Kurt Busch, Roush Fenway’s Carl Edwards, Hendrick’s Jeff Gordon and Kenseth — all 10th or higher in the standings — have each won a pair of races at the track.

It’s a place where cars can get spread out in a hurry and where a misjudged setup can be costly. Drivers and crew chiefs will have that in mind heading into this weekend’s showdown.

Doubtless, Michigan is important to all clinging to any hope of making the Chase. For those drivers within 150 points of the cutoff, this weekend is crucial. Let’s take a look at those who could really gain this weekend:

Mark Martin: Martin leads all active, full-time drivers with five victories at the track, something that should provide a spark for he and his Alan Gustafson-led team. In 49 starts at Michigan, Martin has earned 29 top-10 finishes, 17 of them top-fives, and an average finish of 13.3. He and his team might not have enjoyed their best outing at Watkins Glen last weekend, but it was enough to move into the top 12 and a potential Chase bid. Now Martin, the 2009 series runner-up, wants to make sure he stays in that elite group.

Greg Biffle: Crew chief Greg Erwin and Biffle has this team headed in the right direction. After a slow start to the season, Biffle — and the entire Roush Fenway contingent — is gaining ground on the field. Biffle has moved to a more comfortable 112 points in front of the 13th position on the strength of a pair of top-five finishes in the last three races. At Michigan, Biffle owns a pair of wins. In 15 starts, he has nine top-10 finishes, six of them top-fives, and an average finish of 12.8.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Junior Nation must be pleased to see Michigan — the site of Earnhardt Jr.’s last Cup win — looming. The Hendrick driver won at the track in 2008, and has endured a stretch of 79 winless races since. Could this be his weekend? In 22 starts at the track, Earnhardt Jr. has the victory and has earned eight top-10 finishes, four of them top fives. The driver brings an average finish of 15.5 at Michigan — and the pressure of knowing that he must make up ground this weekend if he wants to maintain even his outside shot at making the Chase this season.

While this trio could be pleased to see Michigan coming up, others should be somewhat less excited about returning to the track. For some of those trying to move into a Chase berth, Michigan hasn’t generally offered the best driving experience. Who could actually lose ground this weekend?

Ryan Newman: The Stewart-Haas Racing driver is already 83 points outside of the Chase and needs a strong run at Michigan. It seems like that would be an easy pick since he has a pair of victories at the track. However, in 18 starts, he has just four top-10 finishes, all top fives, but an average finish of 19.4. His last top finish came with his June 2004 win there. Since then, he has six finishes of 20th or worse at the track, including his 32nd-place effort in June.

Jamie McMurray: McMurray has been up and down in his pursuit of a Chase berth, but he needs to improve on his Michigan averages to make up any ground this weekend. McMurray has 15 starts at the track — and top-10 finishes in only four of those. He has one top-five and an average finish of 19.3. The thing McMurray has going for him, though, is a recent string of top finishes. He has three of sixth or better in his last six races. So is this the weekend he returns to top form at Michigan? It needs to be if he’s to carve into his 94-point deficit on the top 12.

Clint Bowyer: The RCR driver was in the Chase field two weeks ago, and now sits a tantalizing 10 points outside of the group. It’s such a slim margin to overcome — but history doesn’t lean in Bowyer’s favor at Michigan. In nine starts at the track, he has just a pair of top-10 finishes and an average of 21.2 — worst among those in the battle for a championship-field spot. Still Bowyer does have three top-10 finishes in his last six races. How will he fare this weekend? It depends on whether he has learned something at Michigan — and if he can avoid a catastrophic setback such as his parts failure at Watkins Glen.