NASCAR Cup Series

Desperation day: Some drivers need a little magic at New Hampshire

Published Sep. 20, 2014 11:56 a.m. ET

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Jeff Hammond

So on Sunday we start our second of ten Chase for the Sprint Cup races and this weekend we are at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. We started with 16 drivers for the first time ever in the Chase format. Unfortunately after last weekend's race at Chicagoland Speedway, we already have four guys who are in the very back and they really have to be concerned.

The worst in this case is the No. 43 car of Aric Almirola. He is so far out of contact with Chase leader Brad Kelselowski that it has to be concerning in that camp. Granted, he is only 27 points behind Brad. But the bigger issue is that after the strong run he was making at Chicagoland went up in smoke when he had engine problems, he hasn't been as fast in qualifying or practices as it seems he will need to be to get in the mix at New Hampshire.

So he hasn't done himself any favors for Sunday, when he will start back in the 21st spot on a track that is hard to pass and a race that is relatively short. And I think his only Hail Mary play is to win Sunday or next week at Dover.

But Almirola is not alone in his desperation, although he is more desperate than anyone else.

As for the rest of them who are in similar situations -- Ryan Newman, AJ Allmendinger and Greg Biffle -- they, too, are in a hole. For Ryan there is some hope as he starts ninth in Sunday's Sylvania 300. Greg starts clear back in the 26th position and right behind him is AJ starting 27th. So qualifying as they did, those too didn't do themselves any favors.

So while I believe Aric has to win in the next two races to have any chance to advance to the next round, for the other three I see it being all about top-five finishes. Sure a top-10 finish will help, but right now they need to get a top-five finish and get themselves inside the safety zone of being in the top 12 in points to qualify for the next round. And, of course, they will have to finish in front of as many of those in front of them in the standings as possible -- which won't be easy.

It's going to be an interesting battle because the only driver of these four that makes me feel confident about their chances is Newman. He's been very consistent. Ryan has won at Loudon and like I mentioned earlier, he had a great ninth-place qualifying run. So if he can get that positive momentum going and get himself a solid run, then he can get that No. 31 car right back in this thing.

VIDEO: Jeff Hammond wonders if the 1.5-mile tracks are the keys to winning the Chase for the Sprint Cup

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