NASCAR Cup Series

Chase picture will take a while to clear up

Published Aug. 26, 2009 6:09 p.m. ET

Larry McReynolds

We know that Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson are locked into the Chase. Then Denny Hamlin, Carl Edwards and Kurt Busch come next, and after Atlanta, they can pretty much go ahead and look towards the Chase.

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Where it really gets interesting is back there from 9th through 14th. It's unbelievable. I still tend to believe that Kyle Busch is going to make the Chase. So OK, who is going to be knocked out?

Like I mentioned last week, the one that still sticks out to me that isn't running well is that No. 17 car.

However, you and I both know that Matt Kenseth, that team and that organization knows how to make the Chase. They have been in it every single year since 2004. Juan Pablo Montoya is still running well but just has had terrible luck two weeks in a row. I am just a little nervous about him. I am also a little nervous about Kasey Kahne.

So if I had to bet, one of those three guys — Kenseth, Montoya and Kahne will stumble and that Kyle Busch will get in there. I am just not sure that Clint Bowyer has enough time left to get into the Chase. I think Reutimann is pretty much out of the picture. Now Brian Vickers is still hanging in there and we know he is going to run well in two weeks at Atlanta. Richmond might be his Achilles Heel though.

To me, it's almost going up to the roulette wheel and picking black or red. I just think it is that unpredictable. I wouldn't be surprised if even after Atlanta we don't have a clear handle on it. I truly believe it might not be until the closing stages of the Richmond race before we can clearly say who the top 12 guys are.

There's a very good possibility that Kyle Busch may be in the top 12 when we get to Richmond. Also keep in mind that Richmond is a race that he won. So we know and expect him to run well there. Brian Vickers is always fast at Richmond, but I just don't know if he can run the 400 laps there like he needs to. The history says no.

Will we see another Cinderella story like we did in 2004 with Jeremy Mayfield racing his way into the Chase at Richmond? Most possibly. Again, Richmond is a short track and it's another one of those wild card races where you can get caught up in someone else's problems in a snap of the fingers through no fault of your own.

I remember back to that Richmond race in 2004 and we all knew it was going to go all the way to the checkered flag before the field was finally locked into the Chase. We knew it wasn't going to be clear cut who was in or out going into the race or when it even started. We knew we had to get to the closing stages and even the checkered flag before it was actually final.