Carlos Correa Not Interested in Signing Long-Term Deal So Soon, Per Agent
The Houston Astros have one of the best teams in the American League on paper. Carlos Correa and the rest of their young core is a large part of that outlook. So why not sign a long-term deal and keep the band together for the foreseeable future?
According to Jon Heyman, Carlos Correa's agent has stated that "Carlos is never going to do an (early) multiyear contract." Later in the piece, a friend of Correa's also adds "His mentality has always been that he's going to play it out." This is obviously not good news for the Houston Astros.
This is a mentality that all players should have, honestly. It shows confidence in their own ability and means that they want a fair valuation for their services when the time comes. Signing an extension before reaching free agency can work out both ways, both in favor of the team or the player, however it's the team that generally gets the upper hand in these scenarios.
This winter Odubel Herrera signed an extension with the Philadelphia Phillies for five years and $30.5M guaranteed and includes two option years on top of that for $11.5M and $12.5M. That ends up being three years of free agency that could fall by the wayside in exchange for a guaranteed payday.
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The money involved here is nothing to sneeze at and sets up the player for life, which is why these kinds of deals are reached. But it's the team that is getting their money's worth, especially if you ascribe to the one WAR equalling about $8M rule. In 2015 and 2016 Herrera combined for an fWAR of 7.8, which, if you're multiplying by eight million per, works out to more than double the contract he signed for the course of five years. If Herrera continues to perform at a rate of ~3.9 fWAR/season, the contract would be worth $156M in fair market value. Of course there is arbitration to deal with, which means that he wouldn't have been getting that kind of money anyway, but you see where the flaws are in the system.
Then again there are contracts like the one handed out to fellow (sort of) Astro Jon Singleton, who signed a $10M deal before ever reaching the big leagues. Singleton has made brief appearances in Houston but was in Triple-A all of last season and it doesn't look as though there will be room for him on the 25-man roster this season unless a literal plague hits the locker room.
The Houston Astros have not been shy when attempting to sign pieces they feel will become the core of their franchise. Jose Altuve signed a 4-year deal back in 2013 for $12.5M that includes two option years worth $6M and $6.5M. He's obviously being underpaid. The team also tried to lock up George Springer to a similarly team-friendly deal at seven years, $23M back in 2014 but he declined.
The Houston Astros are trying to do what's best for them, which is signing as many of their young studs as possible for cheap so that they can go out in free agency and sign Charlie Morton (and Josh Reddick, Carlos Beltran). And as long as injuries remain a part of the game, there are going to be players that take those deals. But for Carlos Correa, who is still only 22, he'll be reaching free agency at the tender age of 26, which means he's going to get paid beaucoup bucks.
The only way that the Astros could potentially change their young star's mind would be do do a long-term deal that involves a Brinks truck. We're talking 10 years, $200M as a starting point given his age.
