Big Bets Report: PGA Long Shot Aaron Rai Gives Pays Major Dividends

The NFL season can never come soon enough. There’s nothing quite like having a wager on a fall Sunday.

Fortunately, there are plenty of other sports to fill the gap from February to September, including the riveting NBA and NHL playoffs at the moment. 

But don’t sell golf short.

It’s not unusual for a player who’s 20/1 or 30/1 to win a tournament. Occasionally, a 70/1 or 80/1 ticket might hit. 

And then there are the rare occasions where a big long shot delivers.

That was the case in the PGA Championship. A completely unexpected win from Aaron Rai made substantial five-figure winners of a few prescient bettors.

More on those wagers, a massive bet-a-lot-to-win-a-little World Cup play and the NBA ladder bettor striking once again, as we recap the week that was in sports betting.

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PGA Payday

Pre-tournament, several sportsbooks had Rai at +20000 (200/1) or longer to win the PGA Championship at Aronimink. Rai’s first two rounds were solid — even-par 70, followed by a 69 — were solid, but at 1 under par, he didn’t really stand out on a crowded leaderboard.

A 3-under 67 on Saturday got him to 4-under 206 for the tournament, two shots off the lead. However, he had an inauspicious Sunday start: three bogeys, two birdies, three pars over his first eight holes, dropping a shot in the process.

Then came a completely unexpected charge. Rai eagled the par-5 ninth, sparking a run of 6 under on his final 10 holes. He birdied Nos. 16 and 17 to leave the field behind, posting a three-shot victory with a 9-under 271 total.

At DraftKings Sportsbook, a bettor put $288 on Rai +23000 (230/1), banking a $66,240 win. Similarly, a Fanatics Sportsbook customer had $300 on Rai at 200/1, netting $60,000.

A Caesars Sports customer put $188 on Rai +20000 (200/1) and profited $38,000.

The beauty of such huge odds — at least for those who took fliers on Rai — is that you didn’t need to bet much to win a significant amount. One DraftKings customer put a nominal 10 bucks on the Englishman and cashed out for nearly three grand.

Prediction markets also offered the PGA Championship. In fact, ahead of Thursday’s first round, Kalshi had even longer odds on Rai than sportsbooks offered. One customer made it pay nicely on just a $9 trade.

Minuscule Returns

On the flip side of big winners on Rai, Kalshi took a massive trade that comparatively has almost nothing in return, on its World Cup futures market.

Morocco is given around a 2% chance of winning the tournament. That means there’s around a 98% chance that Morocco doesn’t win the tournament.

That translates to odds of -5000 or so. Which means it doesn’t pay much.

But a Kalshi customer was convinced enough to put $300,000 on that position.

As long as Morocco doesn’t make a shocking championship run, the trader will profit all of $6,000.

Similarly, ProphetX had three trades that staked a lot to profit significantly less, on golfers not to win the PGA Championship:

• $125,000 Bud Cauley -25000. Cauley tied for 26th, and the trader profited all of $500 (total payout $126,500).
• $110,000 Rory McIlroy -1100. This one got much more of a sweat, with McIlroy very much in contention on Sunday. But Rory tied for seventh, and the trade netted $10,000 (total payout $120,000), which is a nothing-to-scoff-at 9% ROI.
• $75,000 Scottie Scheffler -500. The world No. 1 tied for 14th, and the customer banked a very respectable $15,000 profit (total payout $90,000).

NBA Payday

As reported over the past couple weeks, a BetMGM customer ran up more than $900,000 in winnings by making ladders of straight point-spread bets on several games.

That bettor returned for Friday’s Spurs-Timberwolves Game 6, placing five wagers totaling $300,000.

San Antonio then went out and hammered Minnesota 139-109, clinching the series 4-2 and advancing to the Western Conference finals vs. the Thunder.

The bettor went 5-0 on those wagers, banking $165,063 in profit (total payout $465,063). Over the past three weeks or so, that customer is now up $1.085 million.

MLB Money

Home-run parlays are a popular play every day of the MLB season. On Sunday, a Hard Rock Bet customer made a four-legger pay out big, on just a $25 bet.

The bettor took the Braves’ Austin Riley, the Cubs’ Michael Busch, the Royals’ Salvador Perez and the Brewers’ Ryan Jeffers to go yard.

Riley and Busch didn’t delay, with each homering in the first inning. Perez went deep in the fourth inning, and even Jeffers didn’t make the bettor sweat much, with a fifth-inning homer.

At huge odds of +146080 — almost 1461/1 — that turned a modest $25 into a healthy $36,544.92.

A Fanatics customer went bigger Sunday, with a $1,000 bet on a nine-leg parlay. Which is a good time to remind you: Nine-leg parlays are not a good way to invest $1,000. Rather, they’re a good way to separate you from your money.

Just keep that in mind.

The odds were +3800, but the bettor also utilized a 33% profit boost, hiking those odds to +5091. Fortuitously, all nine legs delivered, and the customer’s $1,000 turned into $51,907.