Three Burning Fantasy Basketball Questions (Jan. 20)
Every week, D.J. Foster will tackle three burning questions in the Fantasy Basketball world. Topics for today: Punting free throws, planning for a tank job and fantasy's least valuable player.
1. Is punting free throws a more viable strategy now?
Let's assume we're talking about a standard 8-category roto league. In the past, I would have never recommended entering your draft with the intention to punt a category. It just puts you behind the 8-ball, so to speak, and makes it so you have to be close to perfect in every other category. The margin for error is so slim that a single injury to one of your top players can sink your season.
I still think that all holds true, but the emergence of a few terrible free throw shooters at least makes it a little less crazy.
In the past, the strategy of punting the free throw percentage category wasn't always a decision. It usually just sort of happened to the team that ended up with Dwight Howard.
Then DeAndre Jordan came along and started providing elite rebounding numbers and blocks. Following him was Andre Drummond, a real threat to put up 20-20 games every single night.
But it's not just those three. Hassan Whiteside, the league-leader in blocks per game, is a 54 percent free throw shooter. He doesn't go to the line enough to bury you like Howard, Jordan and Drummond, but it hurts nonetheless.
Then you have the non big-man division of studs who aren't helping you at the line. Draymond Green does literally everything except help you at the charity stripe (67.8 percent). Ditto for LeBron James (72 percent). Blake Griffin is at 72.5 percent. DeMarcus Cousins shoots 74.2 percent.
I wouldn't go into the draft with the plan of punting. But if LeBron falls to you in the first round, and then another sub-par free throw shooter is the choice in the second, it might be time to embrace that plan if a combination like Drummond and Whiteside are still on the board. After that you can get some good values on poor shooting guards like Rajon Rondo, but it's challenging to find three-point shooters when punting free throws.
Basically, it's an easier strategy to employ than ever before, but it's still not recommended unless the top of your draft paints you into that corner.
2. Planning for the tank job
The New Orleans Pelicans were expected to contend for a playoff spot behind Anthony Davis and a healthier roster. That hasn't really worked out.
As per usual, the league's most injury-prone roster dealt with -- you guessed it! -- a ton of injuries. Tyreke Evans missed time due to knee problems. Davis missed a few games with his usual assortment of strains and pains. Jrue Holiday was playing restricted minutes and sitting back-to-backs for the first few months of the season. Eric Gordon is going to miss the next 4-6 weeks with a broken finger.
It's a mess, and with the Pelicans 14-27, the tank job is likely going to begin.
The first biggest casualty? Tyreke Evans. He's been playing through pain, but it wouldn't be a surprise if Alvin Gentry and the Pelicans shut him down and save him for next year at some point. Sell now while still you can.
You won't be able to deal Eric Gordon at this point, but Holiday has been playing bigger minutes as of late and has been putting up nice numbers. Look to deal him now, as New Orleans is going to be ultra-sensitive with their point guard from here on out.
Ryan Anderson is worth holding on to, if only because he seems like an obvious candidate to be traded at the deadline. Anderson's contract expires after this season, so the Pelicans might be looking to turn him into an asset that will actually be around for the future. Depending on where Anderson goes, he can remain a viable contributor for threes and rebounds.
Unless someone wants to overpay, it probably makes sense to hang on to Davis. Even more of the offensive workload is headed his way.
But someone other than Davis is going to have to put up stats in the Big Easy though, right?
Alexis Ajinca isn't an exciting fantasy option, but the Pelicans invested in him this offseason and would be the biggest beneficiary if Anderson were dealt or when Davis sits. He's a good free throw shooter for a big man and can provide some blocks, even if his counting stats aren't great.
With Gordon out and Evans likely to join him, Norris Cole makes sense as a guard who can play either spot for New Orleans. He was banged up earlier this year as well, but he's playing bigger minutes now and could be a cheap source of threes and assists for teams that need help in those categories.
Now is the time to buy on the reserves in New Orleans and sell on the injured starters. The tank is coming.
3. Who is fantasy's LVP right now?
The least valuable player in fantasy can't just be the worst player in the league, naturally. It has to be someone who was being drafted nice and early that has just submarined your team's chances. Although injuries definitely play a role, it's more fun if that player has been healthy all season and has just been truly awful.
That doesn't happen as much in basketball as it does in football (hey there, C.J. Anderson!) but it still happens.
So who is the LVP up to this point?
You can make a strong case for Danny Green. He was a top-50 selection in most drafts this season, and despite being healthy, he's shooting 35.7 percent from the field (yuck!), 32 percent from three and is averaging just 6.9 points per game. Players aren't supposed to nosedive like this at age 28, but Green has been a wasted pick to this point.
Al Jefferson warrants some consideration as well. Like Green, he was picked inside the top-50 in most drafts. He's only played in 19 games due to injury, but he had massive drops across the board in PPG (12.5), RPG (6.1) and all his percentages. Jefferson hit just 57.1 percent of his free throws this season, despite being a 70+ percent shooter on his career.
As far as the higher picks go, Rudy Gobert has been pretty disappointing. He was pegged to have a breakout campaign in his third full season, and in a lot of drafts he was the second center off the board after DeMarcus Cousins. Gobert has only played in 21 games due to injury, but his stats have been pretty similar to last year on a per minute basis. If you spent a second round pick on him, chances are your team is in the bottom half of the standings right now.
My vote for LVP still goes to Danny Green. It's rare that someone taken inside the first five rounds becomes total waiver wire fodder before the All-Star break. Green was being drafted a little too high this year, but no one could have seen this collapse coming. There's still time to turn it around, but for now, he's fantasy's LVP.
