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SEC Football: Week Eight Predictions

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 7:10 p.m. ET

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Oct 15, 2016; Predictions Baton Rouge, LA, USA; LSU Tigers head coach Ed Orgeron celebrates with his team following a win against the Southern Miss Golden Eagles in a game at Tiger Stadium. LSU defeated Southern Mississippi 45-10. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

I’m willing to admit that I was little off on my goal of a perfect record last week. I once again put my faith in the wrong teams (I’m looking at you, Ole Miss and Georgia). Fortunately, there really wasn’t in damage done as I went 3-3 with my predictions against the spread. I still find myself in the same position as last week with a record just barely over .500.

The good news is that I feel great about this week’s slate of games. Bama and Auburn are both double-digit favorites? Seriously? My eyes honestly lit up when I saw the lines for these games. I even double checked to make sure they were real. In fact, I would place my confidence in this week’s predictions as high as Chad Kelly’s. Let’s just hope it’s not irrational confidence

Oct 15, 2016; Knoxville, TN, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide defensive back Ronnie Harrison (15) returns an interception for a touchdown against the Tennessee Volunteers during the first half at Neyland Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports

Alabama over Texas A&M (+18.5), Saturday 2:30 PM (CT), Bryant-Denny Stadium

I know Alabama is fresh off their most complete game of the season, but a 18.5 spread is a little too much. I’m sure recent meetings between the two programs have inflated the line, but the fact of the matter is that this isn’t the same Aggies’ team from past years. Texas A&M boasts a stellar defense with a pass rush that has a real chance to force turnovers for the Crimson Tide. The Aggies also have a much improved rushing attack, which is a stark contrast from previous seasons. Make no doubt about it, Texas A&M is much better equipped to challenge Bama this season

With all that being said, I still expect Bama to win the game. The Crimson Tide defense is the best in college football and the offense is continuing to improve. Texas A&M will likely be able to enough mistakes from Jalen Hurts to keep it close, but they don’t have enough firepower to beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa. Expect Bama to force Trevor Knight into a critical late turnover to seal the game for the Crimson Tide. Alabama 27, Texas A&M 17

Oct 1, 2016; Auburn, AL, USA; Auburn Tigers running back Kerryon Johnson (21) is tackled by UL-Monroe Warhawks linebacker Chase Day (32) during the first quarter at Jordan Hare Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Reed-USA TODAY Sports

Auburn over Arkansas (+10), Saturday 5:00 PM (CT), Jordan-Hare Stadium

I know I put Arkansas in my dog house last week for ruining my perfect week, but I’m going to give them one more chance against the Tigers. I still don’t really know if the Hogs are good, but they shouldn’t be getting 10 points here. Outside of the Mississippi State game, Auburn has struggled mightily to put up points. Is one good outing against a terrible Miss. State team enough to justify this high of a line? I certainly don’t think so.

While I feel confident about Arkansas covering, I don’t feel confident picking either team to win the game. I think these teams are practically even and it could truly go either way. Austin Allen will find some success against a good Auburn defense, but I don’t know if he can compensate for the Hogs’ defense. Ultimately, I think home field advantage will be the difference in a game that comes down to a field goal.

Oct 15, 2016; Baton Rouge, LA, USA; LSU Tigers quarterback Danny Etling (16) celebrates runs off the field following a win against the Southern Miss Golden Eagles in a game at Tiger Stadium. LSU defeated Southern Mississippi 45-10. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

LSU (-5.5) over Ole Miss, Saturday 8:00 PM (CT), Tiger Stadium

I’m very disappointed in the Rebels. I’ve been all in on Ole Miss ever since they should have pulled the upset over Bama. Chad Kelly was supposed to be a legit Heisman contender, but the Rebels have already flamed out and we aren’t even out of October yet. Now what do they have to play for? I think the Rebels are ready to mail in the season.

On the other hand, LSU is finally starting to click. Ed Orgeron has seemingly re-engerized the program and opened up what was a stagnant offense. LSU also has real stakes as they are still very much in contention for the West division. The Tigers will also benefit from the return of Leonard Fournette. I’m also going to live by my rule of “Always pick LSU at home, unless it’s against Alabama.” I expect this to be a statement win for the Tigers as they continue to look like the team we all thought they were going to be.

Oct 15, 2016; Gainesville, FL, USA; Missouri Tigers quarterback Drew Lock (3) carries the ball against the Florida Gators during the second half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. The Gators won 40-14. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Elsewhere around the SEC:

South Carolina over UMass (+20)

Missouri (-6) over Middle Tennessee State 

Kentucky (+3.5) over Mississippi State

Vanderbilt (-28) over Tennessee State

Record: 31-30 ATS, 50-11 Straight-up 

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