Penn State Nittany Lions

Penn State vs. Maryland Prediction Roundtable

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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The VBR staff gives its weekly predictions for Penn State’s conference battle with Maryland.

Last week’s contest against Minnesota looked like it was going to be a tough and close game on paper. It turned out exactly as most had imagined, as Penn State got a thrilling overtime video. This week brings another battle with an undefeated team. This time it’s the Maryland Terrapins that will invade Beaver Stadium.

Penn State began the week as the foveate, but the line has recently moved in favor of the Terps. That’s because Maryland is averaging 43 points a game and ranks sixth with an average of 300 rushing yards per game. Those numbers are impressive, even with the lower-tiered opponents that the Terps have faced.

Maryland’s strength plays right into the heart of Penn State’s weakness on defense. The Nittany Lions, riddled by injuries on defense, have really struggled stopping the run through five games this season.

Truly, this one could go either way. It’s going to come down to which team’s defense is able to come up with big plays.

Read below to find out what the VBR staff thinks will happen Saturday when the Nittany Lions match up with the Terps.

Site Expert Barry Leonard Jr.

Penn State did a lot of good things last week and showed great heart. However, there are still some major issues. Most notably, on the offensive line and on the defense. Still, the offense seems to be progressing behind quarterback Trace McSorley.

However, Maryland doesn’t make for the easiest of opponents this week. The Terrapins have had a very potent offense this season, particularly on the ground. The two-back attack of Ty Johnson and Lorenzo Harrison has combined for 619 yards and seven touchdowns.

A bit overshadowed by the offense, the Maryland defense is ranked 10th in the nation, having allowed just 14.5 points per game thus far.

I do think that Penn State is making some big strides on offense, particularly in the passing game. However, Maryland could prove to be just too tough. Plus, William Likely is a very dangerous return man who could make a big play on special teams.

Although it pains me to write this, I do think that a close game in the first half will evolve into a Maryland victory. In the end, the defense won’t be able to contain the rushing attack of the Terrapins.

Penn State 24
Maryland 34

Contributor Marty Leap

This is a tough match up for the Nittany Lions. While Maryland is a little less talented than Minnesota, what the Terps do best is run the ball. And is Penn State worst at? Stopping the run.

Penn State will still be without linebackers Brandon Bell and Jason Cabinda this weekend which will make stopping the Terps’ run game even more of a challenge. The Nittany Lion defense will also be without cornerbacks Amani Oruwariye and Christian Campbell. Luckily, the Terps are not very good at throwing the ball, as they rank 112th in the FBS in passing yards per game.

Make no mistake about it, Maryland will look to beat you on the ground. The Terps are averaging 300 rushing yards per game, which ranks sixth in the FBS. Maryland has run the ball on 67 percent of their plays this season and they have five players with over 100 yards rushing through the season’s first four games. Furthermore, quarterback Perry Hills is a rushing threat and he trashed the Nittany Lion defense in Penn State’s 31-30 victory last season.

I look for Trace McSorley to have a big game on Saturday. Mobile quarterbacks have given Maryland problems this season, and their secondary is not nearly as talented as Penn State’s WRs. The Nittany Lions are going to have to score a lot of points if they’re going to win on Saturday, and that all starts with McSorely having another big performance.

The biggest question mark surrounding Maryland entering this game is that they have played absolutely no one this season. Their four wins are against FCS Howard, FIU, UCF, and Purdue. These four schools are just a combined 6-12 this season. So while the Terps are indeed 4-0, they are a very shallow 4-0.

Before the season I thought this game was a definite Penn State victory, but those feelings have changed. It has changed because A) the Maryland rush offense has been much better than I expected and B) Penn State’s defense is currently decimated with injuries making it very difficult to stop the run. I look for Penn State to score a lot of points on Saturday. However, I have no faith in their defense stopping the Terrapin rushing attack and in the end I think the Terps escape Happy Valley with a shootout victory.

Maryland 38
Penn State 34

Contributor Shane Lunnen

This game scares me. Maryland is coming in at 4-0 and I don’t think it particularly matters who they have played. This year’s edition of the Terps is different under new head coach D.J. Durkin and winning brews confidence.

Maryland is putting up 43.3 points per game, good for 13th overall in the FBS and third in the conference, only behind Michigan and Ohio State. They rack up 300 yards rushing per game, which is sixth in the FBS and second in the conference. Their strength on offense could be a nightmare for Penn State’s depleted defense. This looks like another week the Lions will be without linebackers Jason Cabinda and Brandon Bell. Penn State will also have to key in on Terp quarterback Perry Hills as he can run. It could be a rough outing for the Penn State linebackers and the defense as a whole.

The key for Penn State will be their passing game. Trace McSorley, outside of the Michigan game, has played pretty well this season. Like Penn State’s previous opponents, Maryland will most likely load the box with eight players to attempt to shut down Saquon Barkley and force McSorley to beat them. Also, the Nittany Lions have been horrendous on third down conversions. They need to pick up more yards on the early downs to limit the third down and long situations.

Penn State opened as a slight favorite, but now it’s swung to Maryland by a slight edge. Essentially this game is a toss-up. Bragging rights and recruiting implications are on the line and as much as I want to pick Penn State, I just can’t. Penn State’s problem all year has been the slow starts and if they start slow again this week, Maryland will build enough of a cushion early. Just haven’t seen enough from Penn State on defense that I think they can slow down the Maryland offense.

Prove me wrong, Lions.

Maryland 34
Penn State 24

Contributor Corey Hunter

This week, Penn State welcomes the Maryland Terrapins to Happy Valley in a Homecoming matchup. The Nittany Lions have won nine of their last 11 homecoming games including, a 29-7 triumph over Indiana last season.

Maryland enters the game with a 4-0 mark after drubbing Purdue last week by a score of 50-7. First-year head coach DJ Durkin has the Terrapins and their faithful believing big things are in store for the ‘Turtles’.

Penn State enters the contest coming off a thrilling 29-26 OT thriller against the Minnesota Golden Gophers. Saquon Barkley’s electrifying 25-yard TD scamper on Penn State’s first play from scrimmage in the OT made the difference.

In practice this week Penn State has worked diligently on getting out of the gate faster. They will need to do that against dual-threat QB Perry Hills and freshman running back Lorenzo Harrison III.

Don’t be surprised to see Hills burn the Lions with his read-option ability. The past two seasons his running ability has given the Lions fits. I suspect it will again this weekend. On the flip side, Hills throwing ability has been something Penn State’s defense has been able to take advantage of over the past few seasons. In last year’s contest Hills threw three picks.

The term “must-win” has been overplayed, so let’s just say Saturday’s game is of high importance. Just like last week, Penn State and Maryland are two evenly matched teams. The intangibles will likely decide this contest. Maryland has been riding a high, while Penn State has been looking to find its identity with all of their injuries. This week, Hills makes just enough plays for Maryland to spoil Penn State’s homecoming.

Maryland – 27
Penn State – 24