College Football

Notre Dame football: Wait, the Irish are favored over Stanford?

Updated Mar. 5, 2020 1:57 a.m. ET

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Oct 8, 2016; Raleigh, NC, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback DeShone Kizer (14) is pressured by North Carolina State Wolfpack defensive end Bradley Chubb (9) in the third quarter at Carter-Finley Stadium. NC State won 10-3. Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

For most Notre Dame football fans, the sky is falling after the Irish lost to NC State this weekend, giving the team a 2-4 start to the season. But Las Vegas actually has ND as the favorite against Stanford.

Since Notre Dame dropped a road contest to North Carolina State, there has been no shortage of outrage, shock, fear and misery among the Irish fan base. The calls for Brian Kelly’s firing have grown exponentially after his curious playcalling in the contest, DeShone Kizer looked less like a Heisman contender than someone desperately trying to salvage something out of a terrible situation, and the team appears to have no ground game.

And right on schedule, the Irish will welcome Stanford to South Bend this week. Based off beginning of the year projections, this was going to be Notre Dame’s toughest game of the season, and after the defense’s poor performance early on, many ND fans were dreading the arrival of Heisman runner-up Christian McCaffery.

But lo and behold, Las Vegas has opened the betting for next Saturday’s game between the traditional rivals, and the line currently has … Notre Dame as the 1.5-point favorites?

Granted, Stanford has not had a great past few weeks, with a humiliating 44-6 loss to Washington followed by a 42-16 thrashing at the hands of unranked Washington State, but still, this qualifies as surprising.

After all, we’re talking about a team with one of the nation’s best playmakers, who averages 5.8 yards per touch despite drawing intense attention and focus from opposing defenses. And on the other hand, we’re talking about a defense that allows more than 181 rushing yards per game, good for just 84th in the country.

So what’s up? Have the bookies just lost their mind? Or could the chances of Notre Dame winning actually be that great? Here are arguments for and against.

Oct 1, 2016; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish holder Montgomery VanGorder (4) kicker Justin Yoon (19) and long snapper Scott Daly (61) celebrate after a field goal in the fourth quarter agains the Syracuse Orange at MetLife Stadium. Notre Dame won 50-33. Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

Why Notre Dame should be favored

The biggest issue Notre Dame dealt with against North Carolina State was twofold: the weather from Hurricane Matthew and Brian Kelly’s inability to adjust as a result. Kelly just couldn’t seem to understand why passing the ball in the midst of a hurricane might not work well and continued to do so. Naturally, DeShone Kizer couldn’t get much going.

But if you were to get rid of the bad weather, then Kelly would be perfectly reasonable placing the ball in Kizer’s hands and asking him to carry the offense. And as luck would have it, the National Weather Service is calling for good conditions this upcoming Saturday. You can throw out Kizer’s stats from NC State: There’s no denying how good he is and how much he do when the conditions are right.

On the flip side, Notre Dame’s defense has looked sharp in the past two games following the dismissal of Brian VanGorder. Under Greg Hudson, the unit has tamped down on the easy mistakes, and the results, while not sterling, have been serviceable. Syracuse’s vaunted pass attack was held in check, and North Carolina State got close but never punched the ball in.

Meanwhile, Stanford has looked completely lost for two weeks now. McCaffery has totaled fewer than 100 yards combined the last two contests and was banged up in the team’s loss to Washington State.

Meanwhile opposing passers have shredded the Cardinal defense to the tune of a combined 567 yards, six touchdowns and a 72 percent completion rate.

From a momentum standpoint, Notre Dame has nowhere to go but up. No matter what the odds say, I would think most people expect Stanford to win this one. At the very least, a loss wouldn’t be anywhere near as humiliating as the ones to Duke and NC State were.

Stanford, on the other hand, has a whole lot to lose here. The Cardinal are still 3-2 on the season and could theoretically rebound. But they’re reeling from two huge losses and playing on the road against a team with its back against the wall.

Sep 30, 2016; Seattle, WA, USA; Stanford Cardinal running back Christian McCaffrey (5) rushes the ball against the Washington Huskies during the second half at Husky Stadium. Washington won 44-6. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports

Why Stanford should be favored

Two words: Christian McCaffery.

Notre Dame’s defense has been better, it is true. But they were better against Syracuse and NC State in the pouring rain. The Irish have yet to face a true playmaker like McCaffery, who can do things few in college football can.

While McCaffery is hurt and his status for Saturday is doubtful, that could actually make Notre Dame’s job even more difficult. Now Kelly and crew have to prepare for two offenses: one without McCaffery and one with him.

But let’s say McCaffery doesn’t play. Stanford still has an experienced quarterback in Ryan Burns who has played decently, if not great, this year. And it’s important to take into account who Stanford has played on its way to a 3-2 record.

The Cardinal topped Kansas State, USC and UCLA in the first three weeks. Those are three teams are all at .500 or above. And the team’s two losses came on the road to a top-10 squad in Washington and a Washington State squad ranked in the top 10 in offense. So these two losses, while bad, are nothing to be embarrassed about.

On the other hand, Notre Dame has consistently played down to the level of its opponent, including a 1-2 Duke team, a then-overrated Michigan State squad and an North Carolina State outfit that had managed just one win against a Power 5 opponent: Wake Forest.

So based off that alone, it seems that Stanford is more capable of handling top level competition, which favors the Cardinal.