College Football

FSU Football: Grading The 2016 Defensive Numbers

Updated Mar. 5, 2020 1:43 a.m. ET

Fansided, Kelvin Hunt/FanSided via Chop Chat

Sep 5, 2016; Orlando, FL, USA; Mississippi Rebels quarterback Chad Kelly (10) fumbles the ball after being hit by Florida State Seminoles defensive end DeMarcus Walker (44) in the third quarter at Camping World Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Logan Bowles-USA TODAY Sports

FSU football had a weird year when it came to the defense. We look at the numbers to make sense of it all compared to 2015.

FSU football finished the 2015 season with the No. 10 defense in the country according to S&P+ advanced metrics.

The natural assumption would be the defense would be better in 2016, assuming the young and inexperienced but talented back seven would have a good grasp of the defense.

Well, that flat-out didn’t happen. The FSU defense over the first five games was statistically the worst in FSU football history.

The FSU defense was allowing 6.78 yards per play through the first four games. It should be noted that two of those teams (South Florida and Louisville) turned out to be top 10 offenses for the season.

It’s likely Ole Miss would have been a top 10 offense had Chad Kelly not gotten hurt, but they still finished at No. 13. Almost all of the teams in the early part of the scheduled featured good to great quarterbacks in a spread system.

The latter part of the schedule featured more pro-style systems that were much better matchups. The loss of Derwin James in the second game didn’t help things, but the ‘Noles were incredibly young.

However, at times the FSU defense looked completed lost and not able to line up correctly. That’s on Charles Kelly the defensive coordinator. To his credit, the ‘Noles looked like a different defense towards the end of the season and incredibly finished as the No. 10 defense in the nation.

Areas Of Improvement Compared To 2015

Sacks

The 2015 FSU football defense got after the quarterback, finishing the season with 32 sacks which was tied for No. 31 in the nation.

The 2016 version finished the season with 51 sacks, finishing the season second in the nation to Alabama who played two more games than FSU football.

The ‘Noles also created more havoc in regards to tackles for loss. FSU had 95 tackles for loss in 2016 compared to 76 in 2015. That’s almost 2 more tackles for loss per game.

Third Down Conversions

The 2016 defense did a much better job of getting off the field on third downs compared to 2015. The ‘Noles allowed opposing offenses to convert 33.89 percent of the time. However, in 2015 they allowed teams to convert 39.23 percent of the time.

When you break it down further, the 2016 version allowed AP top 25 teams to convert 32.86 percent of the time. The 2015 version allowed AP top 25 teams to convert at a 43.86 percent clip.

Forcing Turnovers

I’ll be honest, I’m not sure this is something a team can actually improve on, but teams can put opponents in situations where the probability for a turnover can increase.

The 2016 version excelled at that, forcing 23 turnovers on the season compared to 15 turnover forced in 2015.

The 2016 team did a better job of creating third and long opportunities and getting pressure on quarterbacks which resulted in sacks or poor throws that were intercepted.

Dec 30, 2016; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Florida State Seminoles defensive back A.J. Westbrook (19) breaks up the pass against Michigan Wolverines fullback Henry Poggi (19) during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Areas Where Improvement Is Needed

Red Zone Scoring

The 2016 defense was less stout in the red zone compared to 2015, but did face more high-powered offenses.

FSU allowed teams to score 80 percent of the time in the red zone, but gave up touchdowns 57.78 percent of the time in 2016. In 2015, the defense allowed teams to score 82.86 percent of the time, and gave up touchdowns 48.57 percent of the time.

For more context, the 2016 defense had teams in the red zone on 45 occasions and the 2015 defense had teams in the red zone on 35 occasions.

Yards Per Play/Explosive Plays

The 2016 FSU football defense gave up too many explosive plays. The large majority of these plays did come in the early part of the season against great offenses taking advantage of an inexperienced defense.

The ‘Noles gave up 5.27 yards per play in 2016 compared to 4.68 yards per play in 2015. Again, FSU limited the pro-style teams for gashing them for the most part, but it most improve in this area as teams that run spread offenses.

Penalties

FSU football was awful when it came to penalties in 2016, and they were bad in 2015 as well. The ‘Noles check in at No. 123 in the country with 100 penalties in 2016. They had 89 in 2015 and were No. 93 in the country.

Now, all of these penalties are not defensive penalties, but I had to put this stat somewhere because this type of undisciplined play causes teams to lose football games.

Dec 30, 2016; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Florida State Seminoles defensive tackle Derrick Nnadi (91) reacts after a sack with defensive end Josh Sweat (9) in the first quarter against the Michigan Wolverines at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Logan Bowles-USA TODAY Sports

Final Thoughts

We wrote about how firing Charles Kelly mid-season was not the way to go when fans were in a crisis state and that proved to be correct.

It’s not like there was anyone on staff that could have fixed the problems. We have to give credit to Kelly for keeping this defense together and playing as a unit, because it could have been easy for guys to start playing selfish and ultimately hurting the team.

The 2016 team should rightfully be hyped up because it returns a ton of experienced talent and Derwin James. They do lose DeMarcus Walker and Marquez White, but there’s a lot of talent waiting in the wings.

The schedule isn’t as daunting in 2017. Clemson loses a ton off their offense and the best QB in Clemson history. Lamar Jackson returns, but loses a lot of receiving talent and the offensive line was an issue at Louisville late in the season.

Miami is losing a lot off of their offense as well. The 2017 should be one of the best units in the country with Matthew Thomas and Derrick Nnadi announcing the play to come back for their senior seasons.