College Football

Breaking Down 2016 FBS Conference Races After Week 10

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 11:54 p.m. ET

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Now that November play has commenced, which teams still have a shot at winning conference titles or playing in December championship games?

Ten weeks into the 2016 season, we are at a point where many teams have been mathematically eliminated from division races. In the case of the Big 12 and the Sun Belt, which both currently lack a conference championship game, many of their teams are completely out of the running for the league title.

In an era where so much is predicated on winning a conference championship as a prerequisite for postseason recognition, now might be a good time to begin evaluating who remains in the hunt to win one of the ten FBS conferences. Who is still in the race, and who has no shot at winning any hardware in 2016? Click through as we break down the races across the country and evaluate who might emerge on top in each league.

Sep 17, 2016; Hattiesburg, MS, USA; Troy Trojans wide receiver Emanuel Thompson (8) celebrates with teammates at the end of their game against the Southern Miss Golden Eagles at M.M. Roberts Stadium. Troy won 37-31. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

Sun Belt Conference

The Sun Belt currently features three teams atop its table that have yet to lose in conference play. Appalachian State, Troy, and Arkansas State have all reached November without losing a league game. The Mountaineers and Trojans square off against one another in Alabama on November 12. If Troy wins, they follow up with a home date the following weekend against Arkansas State. Should the Trojans win out, they will make things easy by winning an outright and undefeated championship.

If the Trojans lose to both of their fellow contenders, the league’s unbalanced schedule will make things a little more muddled. Arkansas State and Appalachian State do not face one another this season, meaning that a split conference title is a distinct possibility yet again for the Sun Belt. If it gets to that point where the Red Wolves and Mountaineers are tied and unbeaten, a coin flip would determine the champion for bowl seeding purposes.

Nov 5, 2016; Denton, TX, USA; Louisiana Tech Bulldogs wide receiver Carlos Henderson (1) caries the ball in the fourth quarter against the North Texas Mean Green at Apogee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sean Pokorny-USA TODAY Sports

Conference USA

Conference USA has fallen off the map from recent years as the league has lost some of its marquee programs such as Houston and Tulsa. Who might emerge to play for the C-USA title game this year?

C-USA East

After opening the season 3-3 and looking like an afterthought in the division, Western Kentucky has won four straight in league play to vault back up to the top of the East standings. The Hilltoppers are a half-game ahead of Old Dominion, who they resoundingly beat head-to-head at home in October. If WKU does happen to lose against either North Texas or Marshall, the door would be open for the Monarchs to compete for the C-USA title in December.

C-USA West

At various times over the course of the season, Southern Miss and UTSA have looked like they could contend for the West division. But at the moment Louisiana Tech is ahead by a game in the division standings, and the Bulldogs close out the season against the Roadrunners and Golden Eagles. If they win out, Louisiana Tech will be the champ. If they lose to UTSA, the Roadrunners would hold the tiebreaker with wins over the Bulldogs and Southern Miss. If Tech loses to Southern Miss, it would set up a three-way that would require a look at cross-divisional opponents to parse out the winner.

Sep 17, 2016; Champaign, IL, USA; The Western Michigan Broncos defense celebrates after the interception by Western Michigan Broncos linebacker Robert Spillane (10) during the fourth quarter at Memorial Stadium. Western Michigan beat Illinois 34 to 10. Mandatory Credit: Mike Granse-USA TODAY Sports

Mid-American Conference

The MAC boasts one of just five remaining unbeaten teams at this point of the season. Yet Western Michigan is hardly guaranteed of even a division title. Let’s break down the two races.

MAC East

The MAC East has been largely overlooked this season. Ohio leads the division with a 5-1 conference record, and the Bobcats hold a head-to-head tiebreaker over a Miami team that is a game behind in the standings. For anyone else to have a shot at the division, Frank Solich’s team would have to lose both of its final two games against Central Michigan and Akron. In that scenario, the RedHawks would head to Detroit instead of the Bobcats. The Zips could also make it to the MAC championship with two Akron losses and one more Miami defeat, as they would hold the tiebreaker over both teams in that scenario.

MAC West

If Western Michigan keeps winning, they will be playing for the school’s first MAC championship in decades. The Broncos hold a one-game lead over Toledo, and the two teams still have to square off against one another on Thanksgiving weekend in Kalamazoo. If the Rockets can win both of their games prior to the regular-season finale, that showdown will set up as a winner-take-all affair for the division title.

Oct 29, 2016; Laramie, WY, USA; Wyoming Cowboys defensive end Josiah Hall (53) signals for a safety during the fourth quarter at War Memorial Stadium. The Cowboys beat the Broncos 30-28. Mandatory Credit: Troy Babbitt-USA TODAY Sports

Mountain West Conference

Boise State is usually the team to beat in the Mountain West, but this year the Broncos don’t even control their own fate. Let’s break down each division.

MWC Mountain

Boise State is in danger of missing the MWC championship game for the second straight year. The Broncos lost to Wyoming in Laramie in Week 9, and now the Cowboys are in control of the Mountain division. Craig Bohl’s team is a game up on the Broncos as well as New Mexico, with the head-to-head tiebreaker over the former. Wyoming faces off against the Lobos on November 26, and if both teams keep winning that contest will determine which of the two squares off against the West champ in December.

MWC West

San Diego State has effectively sealed up its spot in the MWC championship game, as the Aztecs would have to lose all of their final three games of the regular season to give any other team a chance in the division. Rocky Long’s team already holds a head-to-head tiebreaker over Hawaii, the closest team in the West standings, and needs just one more win against a final slate of Nevada, Wyoming, and Colorado State to stay in the hunt for a title defense.

Oct 21, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Temple Owls running back Jahad Thomas (5) scores a touchdown against the South Florida Bulls during the second half at Lincoln Financial Field. the Temple Owls won 46-30. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

American Athletic Conference

This looked like Houston’s league to lose, until it wasn’t anymore. Losses have caused almost-constant shifts in the AAC hierarchy. Here is how each division stands at this point of the year.

AAC East

Temple has a half-game lead on South Florida for the division title, and the Owls also hold a head-to-head win over the Bulls that would serve as a tiebreaker should both teams finish the campaign with one league loss apiece. UCF is one game behind South Florida, though they too lost to Temple earlier in the season and would need the Owls to lose both of their last two games to overtake them. While USF has the better record, Temple has the inside track to playing in the AAC championship game.

AAC West

Houston sits a half-game behind both Tulsa and Navy. The Cougars beat Tulsa in October, while they were dealt their first defeat of the season by the Midshipmen. Navy and Tulsa meet in Annapolis on November 12, with the winner taking sole possession of first place in the AAC West. Houston could ostensibly still get into the championship game and play for a berth in the Cotton Bowl, but that would require Navy to lose not only to Tulsa but also either East Carolina or SMU.

Oct 29, 2016; Norman, OK, USA; The Oklahoma Sooners celebrate a touchdown by Oklahoma Sooners wide receiver Dede Westbrook (11) against the Kansas Jayhawks during the first quarter at Gaylord Family – Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports

Big 12 Conference

Oklahoma sits alone atop the Big 12 standings with the only perfect record in league play. After Baylor lost for a second straight week, the Bears are now two games down on the Sooners in the table, with both Oklahoma State sitting on one conference loss apiece. The Sooners still have to close out the season against the three teams right below them in the standings, meaning that the Big 12 is probably the least settled of the Power Five conferences.

A Baylor upset in Norman on November 12 would open the door for the Cowboys and Mountaineers, while the Bears need at least two Oklahoma losses to get back in the race. West Virginia and Oklahoma State have a better shot of overtaking the Sooners, given that a head-to-head win would serve as the tiebreaker. While Bob Stoops’ team is the favorite to win, the two teams below them will have a say in the final order in the Big 12.

Nov 5, 2016; Berkeley, CA, USA; Washington Huskies quarterback Jake Browning (3) prepares to throw the ball against the California Golden Bears during the first quarter at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Pac-12 Conference

The Pac-12 has become an afterthought for most of the country, as teams such as Oregon and UCLA have struggled in 2016. A good dose of parity has resulted in the following division races.

Pac-12 North

Washington and Washington State are tied atop the division table with perfect matching 6-0 records in Pac-12 play. Everyone else in the division has at least three losses. As long as the Huskies and Cougars keep winning, it is guaranteed at this point that the Apple Cup will be a de facto division championship game. Both teams hold tiebreakers over Stanford, and the state rivalry game on Thanksgiving weekend ensures that the division champ can incur no more than two more losses in the regular season.

Pac-12 South

Colorado is alone atop the Pac-12 South with only one league loss at this point of the season. The Buffaloes are a half-game ahead of USC and one game ahead of Utah in the standings. USC holds the tiebreaker over Colorado after winning 21-17 when the two teams met in October, while Utah got the better of the Trojans when they matched up earlier in the year. The Buffaloes close out the season by hosting Utah in what could be a winner-take-all contest.

Oct 1, 2016; Clemson, SC, USA; Clemson Tigers running back Wayne Gallman (9) carries the ball during the second quarter against the Louisville Cardinals at Clemson Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joshua S. Kelly-USA TODAY Sports

Atlantic Coast Conference

In the ACC, one division is all but sealed up while the other could still have several storylines play out. Here is the breakdown of the Atlantic and the Coastal.

ACC Atlantic

After trouncing NC State on Saturday, Clemson remained perfect in 2016 and would have to lose both of its last two conference games to cede control of the ACC Atlantic. Were they to inexplicably lose to both Pittsburgh and Wake Forest, the Tigers would open the door for Lamar Jackson and Louisville to sneak in and win the division despite losing head-to-head at Clemson earlier in the season. Wake Forest, with two ACC losses, is the only other team that controls its destiny. The Demon Deacons play Louisville on November 12 and Clemson the following weekend, and would need one more Clemson loss.

ACC Coastal

The Coastal is where things really get interesting in the ACC. Both Virginia Tech and North Carolina are 5-1 in league play and 7-2 overall on the season. Virginia Tech has the head-to-head victory, and a resounding one at that given the 34-3 final. Every other team below them has at least three ACC losses, so the division will definitely come down to Hokies versus Tar Heels. If both teams win out in league play, Virginia Tech will advance to the ACC championship in Orlando.

Oct 15, 2016; Madison, WI, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes running back Mike Weber (25) rushes with the football during the first quarter against the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Big Ten Conference

The Big Ten has looked like one of the deepest conferences in the country in 2016, and several teams could still play for the title in Indianapolis at the beginning of December. Here is how each division race looks at the moment.

Big Ten West

After Nebraska lost to Ohio State, there are now three teams out of six sporting identical 4-2 records in Big Ten play and 7-2 overall marks three-quarters of the way through the year. Wisconsin holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over Nebraska. Minnesota is the wild card in the scenario. The Golden Gophers play Nebraska on November 12 in Lincoln and Wisconsin on November 26 in Madison. Three things could ostensibly happen:

Big Ten East

Michigan leads the division with a 6-0 league mark and will win the Big Ten West if it wins out. They already hold a tiebreaker over Penn State after beating the Nittany Lions 49-10 in September. Thus, barring an upset before November 26, the rivalry showdown between the Wolverines and Ohio State in Columbus will likely end up being the de facto division title game. If Michigan were to unexpectedly lose to Iowa or Indiana and then also lose to Ohio State, Penn State would reach the title game on the strength of their head-to-head win over the Buckeyes.

Nov 5, 2016; Baton Rouge, LA, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Hurts (2) carries for a 21 yard touchdown against the LSU Tigers during the fourth quarter at Tiger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Southeastern Conference

In the preeminent conference in college football, one division seems relatively clear-cut while the other continues to devolve into chaos. Let’s look at each division one by one.

SEC West

At this point the division is Alabama’s to lose. The Crimson Tide have a one-game lead on Auburn, the only team with any realistic shot of catching and passing them. The two teams play in the Iron Bowl at Tuscaloosa on November 26, and as long as both teams keep winning it will be a winner-take-all affair for the division. Alabama has a two-game lead on Texas A&M and LSU, against whom they have head-to-head victories to win two-way tiebreaker scenarios.

SEC East

The SEC East, on the other hand, is the division that has far less clarity. Florida, with a 4-2 league record, remains a half-game ahead of Kentucky. The Wildcats are the only other team in the division with a winning record in SEC play, though they lost head-to-head against the Gators back in September. If Florida loses twice, Mark Stoops’ team could play for the SEC title. Everyone else in the division now has at least four SEC losses.