NCAA Basketball: Best Bets for the Big 12/SEC Challenge
Jan 7, 2017; Lawrence, KS, USA; Kansas Jayhawks head coach Bill Self reacts to a play during the first half of the game against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Allen Fieldhouse. The Jayhawks won 85-68. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
Best Bets comes back from an undefeated week with picks for all Big 12/SEC NCAA basketball games this weekend.
Last Week: 3-0
Overall: 14-11
Check out past editions of this feature Week one, two, three, four, five, six, seven and eight.
A solid week with two great college basketball picks and a crossover NFL pick has Best Bets heat checking.
This week we will expand our picks to include all ten match-ups in the Big 12/SEC Challenge. But let’s first recap last week’s undefeated picks.
Last weekend’s victory over Ohio State seemed to be the confirmation many needed that Northwestern is legit. The Wildcats (with another victory over Nebraska this week) are one game out of first place and look to be easily in the NCAA tournament.
The other college basketball pick was Virginia Tech. Clemson continues to slide and Virginia Tech looks to be solidly in the field. Joe Lunardi currently has the Hokies as a nine seed in the Midwest region. Virginia Tech hasn’t made an NCAA tournament since 2007, so keep an eye out on an interesting story from the brutal ACC.
Elsewhere in our NFL pick, we correctly stated that Atlanta would destroy Green Bay. Matt Ryan carved up the Packer defense in a game that was over by halftime.
But let’s get back to college basketball. After the jump, take a look at where you should go this weekend to pad your wallet in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge.
Jan 24, 2017; Morgantown, WV, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers forward Nathan Adrian (11) passes the ball during the second half against the Kansas Jayhawks at WVU Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports
Texas A&M at No. 18 West Virginia (-15.5)
Well, the last four games haven’t been as bad for Texas A&M as the beginning of their conference season. The Aggies are 2-2 over their last four and their two losses have been by an average of five points. This stretch included a road win over Ole Miss.
Still, I don’t expect Texas A&M to be competitive in this one. A potential X-factor is the play of freshman Robert Williams. The 6’9″ forward is coming off back-to-back double-doubles and will be a part of a young, but talented front line that will need to work hard to match the size of the Mountaineers.
A potential danger area for the Aggies could be turnovers. Texas A&M averages 14.5 a game and West Virginia is No. 1 in the country in forcing them with their famed “Press Virginia” defense. Expect this to cause some havoc and create easy buckets for West Virginia.
The question in this game is not whether West Virginia will win or not (they will), the question is whether they will cover the 15.5 spread. Of the Mountaineers’ 16 wins, 13 of those have been by 16 or more. I think the Mountaineers, using their ability to create turnovers, will cover the spread against Texas A&M on Saturday.
Pick: West Virginia (-15.5)
Next: No. 25 Florida at Oklahoma
Nov 21, 2016; Tampa, FL, USA; Florida Gators guard Canyon Barry (24) shoots a layup over Belmont Bruins guard Dylan Windler (3) during the second half at Amalie Arena. Florida defeated Belmont 78-61. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
No. 25 Florida (-5) at Oklahoma
Oklahoma is not a good basketball team. Their upset victory over West Virginia was spectacular, especially given it was on the road, but this is a down year for the Sooners.
However, that game showed the Sooners were going to be tougher to handle with a healthy Jordan Woodard back in the lineup. The 6’0″ senior guard is averaging 17 points a game and was instrumental in defeating the Mountaineers in Morgantown.
Florida was humming along through most of December and the middle of January, but is 1-2 over their last three. One of those losses was a head scratcher to Vanderbilt on their home floor.
I think Florida will win this game, but it is going to be close. The Gators’ defense is solid and should disrupt the Sooners, but if Oklahoma is allowed to push the ball and create opportunities in transition, an upset would not be out of the question.
Still, I think the Gators will get the victory, but put money on the Sooners to cover the five-point spread. I think Woodard has a big game and keeps Oklahoma in it until the very end. Expect a victory of 2-4 points for the Gators in Norman.
Pick: Oklahoma (+5)
Oct 25, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders head coach Chris Beard address the media during the Big 12 Basketball Media Day at the Sprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports
LSU at Texas Tech (-14)
Here are the loss totals during LSU’s six-game losing streak: 17, 30, 15, four, 13 and 25.
Expect Texas Tech to cover this one. Head coach Chris Beard has the Red Raiders competing for an NCAA Tournament spot and on Tuesday night, they went toe-to-toe with Baylor on the road. It is not a team that is full of names that are recognizable nationally, but Texas Tech plays well together and holds a KenPom top 35 offense.
LSU, on the other hand, is an absolute mess. It is hard to think that Ben Simmons was playing for them last season. I guess that did not go so well either (from a team standpoint, Simmons was awesome).
The fat lady has to be singing on the tenure of Johnny Jones. The Tigers look overmatched and disinterested and the calls from the sidelines are mostly…um…poor.
2016-17 Vegas stats back Texas Tech in this match-up as well. LSU is just 6-12 against the spread this season. This includes a horrible 1-6 mark on the road. The Red Raiders have a respectable 9-6 mark at home.
The Red Raiders really need this game. They are 2-3 over their last five and can ill afford to drop a game against one of the worst Power 5 teams in the country. It might be a bit scary to give up 14 points to a team that is unranked, but expect Texas Tech to come out focused and steam role the hapless Tigers by around 20 points.
Pick: Texas Tech (-14)
Next: Kansas State at Tennessee
Mar 11, 2016; Nashville, TN, USA; Tennessee Volunteers head coach Rick Barnes talks with his players in a huddle in the second half against the LSU Tigers during the SEC tournament at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
Kansas State at Tennessee (-1)
One cannot underestimate the importance of Tennessee’s upset victory over Kentucky in Knoxville this week. So far this season, the Volunteers have been a rudderless team that seemed destined for 16-or-17 wins. The Wildcats victory could alter that.
Tennessee still has real shot at NCAA Tourney. On almost exact same path as 2016 Vandy, who made the NCAA tournament as one of last 4 in. pic.twitter.com/CsgQU4Mgyc
— Christian Lundy (@c_lundy1) January 25, 2017
Guess what team lines up as a potential top 50 RPI win for the Volunteers next? That’s right, the Kansas State Wildcats, who clock in at No. 40.
This game really is a toss-up. Kansas State followed their nice home win against West Virginia last weekend with a flop on the road at Iowa State. The Wildcats need this game in Knoxville to stay on track for a tournament bid. Both teams are 12-7 against the spread when they are on the road/at home.
I think Tennessee gets this one done, though. You have to worry about the hangover of such an important victory over Kentucky this week, but I think the line works in their favor and they come through by winning by 3-5 points.
Pick: Tennessee (-1)
Next: Arkansas at Oklahoma State
Jan 24, 2017; Nashville, TN, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks guard Daryl Macon (4) celebrates after making the game winning free throw against the Vanderbilt Commodores during the second half at Memorial Gymnasium. Arkansas won 71-70. Mandatory Credit: Jim Brown-USA TODAY Sports
Arkansas at Oklahoma State (-8)
Don’t sleep on the Razorbacks. In the spirit of talking about season-altering wins, their road victory at Vanderbilt this week was huge. Arkansas trailed by 15 with six minutes to go and came back to beat the Commodores 71-70. Another road victory over the Cowboys would complete a pretty impressive week and put them at 17-4 overall.
For Oklahoma State, they are either going to outscore you or lose. After Kentucky and UCLA in KenPom’s best offenses, Oklahoma State sneaks in at number three. Sophomore Jawun Evans leads the team with 18 points per game and as a team, they average nearly 88 a game.
Arkansas needs to be careful in this one. Oklahoma State has no problems running in transition and would probably prefer it. The Cowboys do average 14 turnovers a game, so the Razorbacks could potentially keep themselves in it through this factor.
As for a prediction, I am going to take the points. I think Oklahoma State will win the game, but Arkansas will keep it close.
Pick: Arkansas (+8)
Jan 2, 2016; Lubbock, TX, USA; Texas Longhorns head coach Shaka Smart during a time out against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at United Supermarkets Arena. Texas Tech defeated Texas 82-74. Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Texas at Georgia (-6)
Two of the more disappointing teams this college basketball season square off in Athens, GA.
For Texas, Shaka Smart hasn’t been close to top 25 aspirations this season and the Longhorns sit at the bottom of the Big 12 at 8-12 and 2-6 in conference play.
Georgia’s game against Alabama on Wednesday was the season’s low point. The Bulldogs were blown out 80-60 and head coach Mark Fox was ejected. Georgia was talked about as a potential NCAA Tournament team out of the SEC this season, but at 12-8 and 4-4 in the conference, those hopes are in serious jeopardy.
What to expect out of this one? Well, if you like offense, you should probably watch something else. Both teams are sub-200 in offense this season, and their defense has kept them afloat from further embarrassment.
I think Texas will cover here and might even win. Athens is not much of a home court advantage and the Longhorns are coming off a win. Most of the Longhorn losses in conference play have been by one possession and I think this one comes right down to the wire. It could be a great opportunity for the young Longhorns to close out consecutive close games.
The game will shake out as a toss up, but I would take Texas and the points.
Pick: Texas (+6)
Next: Iowa State at Vanderbilt
Jan 4, 2017; Waco, TX, USA; Iowa State Cyclones guard Deonte Burton (30) dribbles against Baylor Bears forward Johnathan Motley (5) during the first half at Ferrell Center. Mandatory Credit: Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports
Iowa State (-2) at Vanderbilt
I don’t really understand this line. Vanderbilt is 1-5 over their last six games and 9-11 overall. They struggle defensively and just suffered their most demoralizing defeat on Wednesday in the blown loss at home against Arkansas. Iowa State is 13-6 overall with two wins in a row and played Kansas closely in a home loss last weekend. Why again are the Cyclones only favored by two?
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Further confounding is the fact that Monte Morris will probably have a field day. The talented senior could easily drop 25 while sprinkling in some assists to teammates. He has averaged almost 19 a game over his last five games.
For Vanderbilt, Matthew Fisher-Davis needs to have a good game for Vanderbilt to compete. The 6’5″ wing averages 16 points per game and shoots over 40 percent from three. Maturity issues have crept up in the past two weeks in a non-start against Georgia. Coach Bryce Drew says things are fine, but it remains something to monitor for the Commodores.
I like the Cyclones in this match up. I think they could win this one by double digits. Coach Drew at Vanderbilt doesn’t have his players yet and the Commodores will fall further below .500 in this home loss in Nashville.
Pick: Iowa State (-2)
Jan 3, 2017; Fort Worth, TX, USA; TCU Horned Frogs guard Desmond Bane (1) reacts on the bench against the Oklahoma Sooners during the second half at Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena. TCU won 60-57. Mandatory Credit: Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports
Auburn at TCU (-10)
The Horned Frogs continue their impressive climb this season under Jamie Dixon. TCU has transformed themselves into a Dixon-style team that relies on hard defense and taking care of the ball. This is another game that if one looked at it before the season, you might expect Auburn giving up 11 points.
Instead, the Tigers have disappointed so far in SEC play. They enter today’s game sitting at 3-5 in the conference, though they have won two out of their last three. Bruce Pearl’s team is young, inconsistent and prone to play that might resemble a pickup game.
In this one, I like TCU to win the game, but Auburn to cover. TCU hasn’t beaten a team by double digits in a month. I think Auburn keeps it close with Mustapha Heron and loses by a deficit between 3-7 points.
Pick: Auburn (+10)
Next: No. 5 Baylor at Ole Miss
Jan 25, 2017; Waco, TX, USA; Baylor Bears forward Johnathan Motley (5) celebrates with guard Manu Lecomte (20) after a foul against the Texas Tech Red Raiders during the first half at Ferrell Center. Mandatory Credit: Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports
No. 5 Baylor (-8) at Ole Miss
This line started at -11 and has now fallen all the way down to -7.5. If you go Ole Miss at +11, that looks like a solid bet. In fact, 68 percent of betters so far have gone to the Rebels.
The line now at -8 is interesting. The Bears are 0-4 this season when they’ve been favored by eight or more. Ole Miss is also 4-1-2 this year when they are the underdog. Playing on the road is enough to give anyone pause as well.
Even given these factors, I am still going with the Bears. Ole Miss is a combined 1-10 against Top 50 RPI opponents this season. I think Baylor’s defense will do enough to keep a potentially explosive Rebels offense at bay.
It should be close early on, but I like Baylor at -8. That feels like the more appropriate line in this match-up. Buck the trend and go with the Bears in this one.
Pick: Baylor (-8)
Next: No. 2 Kansas at No. 4 Kentucky
Jan 17, 2017; Starkville, MS, USA; Kentucky Wildcats guard Isaiah Briscoe (13) brings the ball up court against Mississippi State Bulldogs guard Lamar Peters (1) during the second half at Humphrey Coliseum. Kentucky Wildcats defeat the Mississippi State Bulldogs 88-81. Mandatory Credit: Spruce Derden-USA TODAY Sports
No. 2 Kansas at No. 4 Kentucky (-7)
Now to the main event.
This line opened at Kentucky giving five but has ballooned to now eight points. 64 percent of all bets on VegasInsiders have gone to the Wildcats. However, with the line at eight now, it should give one some pause.
The big story in this one is the indefinite suspension of Kansas’ Carlton Bragg Jr. The forward only averages 6.1 points per game, but his absence kills Kansas’ depth. Bill Self was only playing a rotation of seven with Bragg in the lineup. He now has only eight scholarship players available on the roster. Depth in the front court is terrifyingly thin.
This should open the door for Kentucky’s Edrice Adebayo. The big freshman is averaging over 13 a game and grabbing seven rebounds. A big game could be in line.
Still, the guards will be the focal point of this match-up. Kansas’ Frank Mason III, Devonte’ Graham and Josh Jackson will face off against Kentucky’s Malik Monk, De’Aaron Fox and Isaiah Briscoe. It could be the best collection of guards in one game this entire season.
I don’t think one set of guards holds the edge over the other. Expect both sides to play well and play at a breakneck pace.
So who to play today? I would still roll with Kentucky. I think it will be close in the first half and Kansas will not be phased by the raucous atmosphere, but as the second half rolls on, expect Kentucky to pull away. Kansas is playing its second road game this week and depth is a major concern. I would take Kentucky in an 8-10 point win.
Pick: Kentucky (-7)
Enjoy the games today and good luck padding your wallet! Check back next week to see a recap and more selections as we roll through the heart of the college basketball season.
