Thunder vs. Nuggets Prediction, Odds, Picks - Feb. 1

The Western Conference-leading Oklahoma City Thunder (38-11) will look to hold off their closest rival in that conference, the Denver Nuggets (33-16), on February 1, 2026 on NBC/Peacock. The Thunder match up against the Nuggets in a game that Oklahoma City is currently a strong favorite by 7.5 points. A 224.5-point over/under is set for the game.

Check out everything you need to know to know about the Thunder-Nuggets game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert picks, as well as TV channel and streaming information.

Thunder vs. Nuggets Game Information, TV Channel & Odds

• When: Sunday, February 1, 2026 at 9:30 p.m. ET
• Where: Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado
• TV: NBC/Peacock
• Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

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Thunder vs. Nuggets Prediction

ATS Pick: Nuggets (+ 7.5)
O/U Pick: Over (224.5)
Score Prediction: Thunder 118 - Nuggets 114

Thunder vs. Nuggets Betting Insights

• The Thunder have played 27 games with over 224.5 points scored, their current matchup's over/under, this year.
• The Nuggets have played in 32 games this season (65.3% of opportunities) in which the teams combined to score more than 224.5 points.
• The two teams average a combined 15.9 more points per game, 240.4, than this matchup's over/under of 224.5 points.
• Opponents of the two teams average a combined 0.9 fewer points per game (223.6) than this game's over/under of 224.5 points.
• Oklahoma City has won 38, or 77.6%, of the 49 contests in which it was the favorite this year.
• Denver has been chosen as underdogs in 16 games this year and has walked away with the win nine times (56.2%) in those games.
• Oklahoma City has come out on top in six of its last 11 head-to-head meetings with Denver.
• The Nuggets have a 7-4 record against the spread when playing the Thunder.
• The Thunder have been favored in each of their past four contests, and failed to cover the spread in all four.

Thunder Recent Trends

• The Thunder have a 4-6 record against the spread while finishing 6-4 overall over their last 10 games.
• Oklahoma City's average total over the last 10 games is 4.1 points more than the 224.5 total listed for this matchup.
• The Thunder have played 49 games, with 23 wins against the spread.
• So far this season, Oklahoma City has been installed as favorites by a 7.5-point margin or more 41 times and are 21-20 ATS in those games.
• The Thunder have gone over the point total in 53.1% of their opportunities this year (26 times over 49 games with a set point total).
• The 120.3 points per game the Thunder record are only 4.7 more points than the Nuggets give up (115.6).
• Oklahoma City has a 21-11 record against the spread and a 30-2 record overall when putting up more than 115.6 points.
• This season, the Thunder have a 49.0% shooting percentage from the field, which is 2.2% higher than the 46.8% of shots the Nuggets' opponents have knocked down.
• The Thunder have covered the spread in a lower percentage of their home games than away games. They have covered 12 times in 26 games when playing at home, and they've covered 11 times in 23 games when playing on the road.
• In terms of over/unders, Oklahoma City hits the over less consistently at home, as it has eclipsed the total 13 times in 26 opportunities this season (50%). In road games, it has hit the over 13 times in 23 opportunities (56.5%).
• The Thunder have performed better as a moneyline favorite at home, putting up a home record of 21-5, compared to going 17-6 on the road.

Thunder Recent Stats

Thunder Leaders

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander puts up 32.0 points, 6.2 assists and 4.4 rebounds per game.
• Chet Holmgren averages 17.8 points, 8.6 boards and 1.6 assists per contest. At the other end, he averages 0.6 steals and 2.0 blocks (third in league).
• Cason Wallace posts 7.4 points, 2.0 assists and 3.0 boards per game.
• Isaiah Hartenstein puts up 11.2 points, 10.2 boards and 2.9 assists per game, shooting 64.0% from the floor.
• Luguentz Dort posts 8.7 points, 3.9 rebounds and 1.2 assists per game. At the other end he averages 0.9 steals and 0.5 blocks.

Thunder Player Props

Nuggets Recent Trends

• The Nuggets have a 6-4 record against the spread while finishing 7-3 overall in their past 10 contests.
• Denver and its opponents have combined to score an average of 222.9 combined points in its last 10 games, 1.6 less than the 224.5 over/under in this matchup.
• The Nuggets have 29 wins against the spread in 49 games this year.
• This season, Denver has won ATS in each of its four games as an underdog of 7.5 points or more.
• Nuggets games this year have gone over the total in 30 of 49 opportunities (61.2%).
• The Nuggets score an average of 120.1 points per game, 12.1 more points than the 108.0 the Thunder give up to opponents.
• Denver has put together a 23-14 ATS record and a 28-9 overall record in games it scores more than 108.0 points.
• The Nuggets are shooting 49.6% from the field, 6.4% higher than the 43.2% the Thunder's opponents have shot this season.
• In 2025-26 against the spread, the Nuggets have a lower winning percentage at home (.522, 12-11-0 record) than away (.654, 17-9-0).
• Looking at the over/under, Denver's games have gone over 14 of 23 times at home (60.9%), and 16 of 26 on the road (61.5%).
• As moneyline favorites, the Nuggets have won a higher percentage of games at home (11-4) than on the road (13-5).

Nuggets Recent Stats

Nuggets Leaders

• Nikola Jokic is averaging 29.7 points, 12.2 rebounds and 10.8 assists per game. He's also sinking 60.8% of his shots from the floor (seventh in NBA) and 43.9% from 3-point range, with 2.1 triples per contest.
• The Nuggets are receiving 25.8 points, 4.3 rebounds and 7.4 assists per game from Jamal Murray this year.
• Peyton Watson gives the Nuggets 14.7 points, 4.9 rebounds and 1.9 assists per game while averaging 1.0 steal and 1.2 blocked shots.
• The Nuggets are receiving 14.1 points, 2.5 rebounds and 1.4 assists per game from Tim Hardaway Jr. this season.
• Bruce Brown gives the Nuggets 7.4 points, 4.1 rebounds and 2.2 assists per contest while posting 1.0 steal and 0.3 blocked shots.

Nuggets Player Props

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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