Yankees vs. Red Sox AL Wild Card Game 3 Prediction, Odds, Picks - October 2

The New York Yankees will host the Boston Red Sox in the decisive game of the AL Wild Card Series on Thursday at 8:08 p.m. ET, live on ESPN from Yankee Stadium. The teams split the first two games of the series and would advance to the ALDS with a victory in this matchup. The Red Sox are +133 moneyline underdogs in this matchup with the favored Yankees (-158). New York is a 1.5-run favorite (at +142 odds). The total is 7.5 runs for the matchup (with -104 odds on the over and -117 odds to go under).

Here is everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Yankees-Red Sox game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Yankees vs. Red Sox in Win-Or-Go-Home Wild Card game, Who will win? | The Herd

The Boston Red Sox will play the New York Yankees in game 3 of the AL Wild Card. Colin Cowherd asks who will win this matchup of two teams desperate to advance to the next round.

Yankees vs. Red Sox Game Information & Odds

• When: Thursday, October 2, 2025 at 8:08 p.m. ET
• Where: Yankee Stadium in The Bronx, New York
• How to watch on TV: ESPN

Yankees vs. Red Sox Prediction

• Score Prediction: Yankees 5, Red Sox 4
• Total Prediction: Over 7.5 runs
• Win Probabilities: Yankees 54%, Red Sox 46%

Yankees vs. Red Sox Betting Insights

• This season, the Yankees have won 85 out of the 141 games, or 60.3%, in which they've been favored.
• This season New York has won 55 of its 81 games, or 67.9%, when favored by at least -158 on the moneyline.
• The implied probability of a win from the Yankees, based on the moneyline, is 61.2%.
• The Red Sox have come away with 30 wins in the 60 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
• This year, Boston has won nine of 18 games when listed as at least +133 or worse on the moneyline.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Red Sox have a 42.9% chance of walking away with the win.

Yankees Recent Betting Performance

• The Yankees went 9-1 over the 10 games they were favored on the moneyline in their last 10 matchups.
• In their last 10 outings (all 10 of them had set totals), the Yankees and their opponents combined to hit the over two times.
• The Yankees have gone 6-4-0 against the spread over their past 10 games.

Yankees Recent Stats

Yankees Player Insights

• Aaron Judge leads the Yankees with 53 home runs and 114 runs batted in, while racking up a team-best batting average of .331.
• Among all hitters in MLB, Judge is fourth in homers and fifth in RBI.
• Judge has collected a hit in seven games in a row. During his last 10 outings he is batting .417 with a double, five home runs, eight walks and 11 RBIs.
• Cody Bellinger has 25 doubles, five triples, 29 home runs and 57 walks while hitting .272.
• Bellinger is 34th in homers and 17th in RBI among all hitters in the majors.
• Bellinger has seven straight games with at least one hit. In his last 10 games he is batting .278 with seven walks and an RBI.
• Trent Grisham has nine doubles, a triple, 34 home runs and 82 walks while batting .235.
• Ben Rice has 28 doubles, four triples, 26 home runs and 50 walks while hitting .255.
• Rice is riding a two-game hitting streak into this one. In his last five games he is batting .278 with a triple, three home runs, two walks and five RBIs.

Yankees Team Props

Red Sox Recent Betting Performance

• In six games as underdogs over the last 10 matchups, the Red Sox have a record of 4-2.
• When it comes to hitting the over, the Red Sox and their opponents are 3-7-0 in their last 10 games with a total.
• The Red Sox have a record of 8-2-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Red Sox Recent Stats

Red Sox Player Insights

• Jarren Duran is hitting .256 with 41 doubles, 13 triples, 16 home runs and 60 walks, while getting on base at a rate of .332.
• Duran's home run total places him 127th in the big leagues, and he ranks 43rd in RBI.
• Trevor Story proven to be a run producer as he paces his team with 25 home runs and 96 RBI, with a team-high .263 batting average.
• Story ranks 50th overall in home runs and 19th in RBI this year.
• Alex Bregman is batting .273 with 28 doubles, 18 home runs and 51 walks.
• Ceddanne Rafaela is hitting .249 with 34 doubles, four triples, 16 home runs and 28 walks.

Red Sox Team Props

Yankees vs. Red Sox in Win-Or-Go-Home Wild Card game, Who will win? | The Herd

The Boston Red Sox will play the New York Yankees in game 3 of the AL Wild Card. Colin Cowherd asks who will win this matchup of two teams desperate to advance to the next round.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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