Phillies vs. Red Sox Prediction, Odds, Picks - July 21

Jarren Duran and the Boston Red Sox will take the field on Monday at Citizens Bank Park against Zack Wheeler, who is expected to start for the Philadelphia Phillies. First pitch will be at 6:45 p.m. ET. The Phillies are -229 moneyline favorites in this matchup against the Red Sox (+188). Philadelphia is the favorite on the run line (-1.5 with -116 odds). The over/under for the contest is listed at 8 runs.

Take a look at everything you need from a betting perspective on the Phillies-Red Sox game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Phillies vs. Red Sox Game Information & Odds

• When: Monday, July 21, 2025 at 6:45 p.m. ET
• Where: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
• How to watch on TV: NBCS-PH and NESN

Phillies vs. Red Sox Prediction

• Score Prediction: Phillies 5, Red Sox 4
• Total Prediction: Under 8 runs
• Win Probabilities: Phillies 52%, Red Sox 48%

Phillies vs. Red Sox Betting Insights

• The Phillies have won 49, or 62.8%, of the 78 games they've played as favorites this season.
• Philadelphia is 11-1 this season when entering a game favored by -229 or more on the moneyline.
• The oddsmakers' moneyline implies a 69.6% chance of a victory for the Phillies.
• The Red Sox have been chosen as underdogs in 35 games this year and have walked away with the win 15 times (42.9%) in those games.
• Boston has been listed as an underdog of +188 or more on two occasions this season and split those games.
• The Red Sox have an implied victory probability of 34.7% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.

Phillies Recent Betting Performance

• The Phillies have a 4-5 record from the nine games they were favored on the moneyline over their last 10 matchups.
• Over their last 10 outings (all 10 of them had set totals), the Phillies and their opponents combined to hit the over five times.
• The Phillies' record against the spread is 4-6-0 over their past 10 games.

Phillies Recent Stats

Phillies Player Insights

• Kyle Schwarber paces the Phillies in home runs (32) and runs batted in (74).
• Of all hitters in the majors, Schwarber is fifth in home runs and seventh in RBI.
• Schwarber carries a three-game hitting streak into this matchup. In his last five games he is batting .200 with a double, two home runs, three walks and five RBIs.
• Trea Turner has a club-high .288 batting average.
• Turner ranks 108th in home runs and 99th in RBI on the year.
• Turner carries a three-game streak with at least one hit into this contest. In his last five games he is batting .211 with a double, three walks and an RBI.
• Bryce Harper is hitting .268 with 20 doubles, 13 home runs and 44 walks.
• Nick Castellanos has 22 doubles, a triple, 12 home runs and 22 walks while batting .270.

Phillies Team Props

Red Sox Recent Betting Performance

• Over the past 10 games, the Red Sox have been underdogs twice and lost both contests.
• The Red Sox and their opponents have combined to hit the over four times in their last 10 games with a total.
• The Red Sox have seven wins against the spread in their last 10 chances.

Red Sox Recent Stats

Red Sox Player Insights

• Ceddanne Rafaela paces the Red Sox with a .267 batting average.
• Rafaela's home run total puts him 62nd in the majors, and he ranks 67th in RBI.
• Duran is batting .257 with 25 doubles, 10 triples, eight home runs and 34 walks.
• Duran is 155th among all batters in MLB in homers, and 57th in RBI.
• Wilyer Abreu has 20 home runs, tops in the clubhouse.
• Trevor Story has driven in a team-leading 58 runs batted in.

Red Sox Team Props

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