Blue Jays vs. Yankees ALDS Game 1 Prediction, Odds, Picks - October 4

The ALDS begins on Saturday when the Toronto Blue Jays play host to the New York Yankees. Action begins at 4:08 p.m. ET at Rogers Centre, and can be watched on FOX. The Blue Jays are the favorite in this one, at -117, while the underdog Yankees have -103 odds to play spoiler. New York (-1.5) is the favorite on the run line. The over/under is 8 runs for the game.

Take a look at everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Blue Jays-Yankees game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

Keep up with MLB on FOX Sports.

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Blue Jays vs. Yankees Game Information & Odds

• When: Saturday, October 4, 2025 at 4:08 p.m. ET
• Where: Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario
• How to watch on TV: FOX

Blue Jays vs. Yankees Prediction

• Score Prediction: Blue Jays 5, Yankees 4
• Total Prediction: Over 8 runs
• Win Probabilities: Blue Jays 51%, Yankees 49%

Blue Jays vs. Yankees Betting Insights

• The Blue Jays have won 51, or 59.3%, of the 86 games they've played as favorites this season.
• Toronto has entered 78 games this season favored by -117 or more and is 47-31 in those contests.
• The Blue Jays have a 53.9% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
• The Yankees have been victorious in nine, or 40.9%, of the 22 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
• New York has a win-loss record of 5-11 when favored by -103 or worse by sportsbooks this year.
• The Yankees have an implied victory probability of 50.7% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.

Blue Jays Recent Betting Performance

• The Blue Jays went 5-4 across the nine games they were moneyline favorites in their last 10 matchups.
• Over their last 10 outings (all 10 of them had set totals), the Blue Jays and their opponents combined to go over the run total four times.
• The Blue Jays are 5-5-0 against the spread over their past 10 games.

Blue Jays Recent Stats

Blue Jays Player Insights

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is batting .292 with 34 doubles, 23 home runs and 81 walks.
• In all of Major League Baseball, Guerrero is 62nd in home runs and 43rd in RBI.
• George Springer's 32 home runs pace his team.
• Springer ranks 17th in home runs and 43rd in RBI on the season.
• Springer carries a four-game streak with at least one hit into this contest. In his last five games he is hitting .389 with a double, two home runs, four walks and four RBIs.
• Ernie Clement is hitting .277 with 35 doubles, two triples, nine home runs and 27 walks.
• Clement will look to build on his three-game hitting in this game. In his last five games he is hitting .294 with two doubles, a walk and three RBIs.
• Alejandro Kirk is hitting .282 with 18 doubles, 15 home runs and 48 walks.
• Kirk has recorded at least one hit in two games in a row. In his last five games he is hitting .211 with a double, three home runs, a walk and seven RBIs.

Blue Jays Team Props

Yankees Recent Betting Performance

• Over the past 10 games, oddsmakers have not installed the Yankees as underdogs once.
• The Yankees and their opponents have combined to hit the over two times in their last 10 games with a total.
• Over their last 10 games, the Yankees are 6-4-0 against the spread.

Yankees Recent Stats

Yankees Player Insights

• Aaron Judge paces the Yankees with 53 home runs and 114 runs batted in, while posting a team-high batting average of .331.
• Among all batters in the big leagues, Judge's home run total ranks fourth and his RBI tally is fifth.
• Cody Bellinger is hitting .272 with 25 doubles, five triples, 29 home runs and 57 walks.
• Bellinger ranks 34th among all hitters in the big leagues in homers, and 17th in RBI.
• Trent Grisham is hitting .235 with nine doubles, a triple, 34 home runs and 82 walks.
• Ben Rice has 28 doubles, four triples, 26 home runs and 50 walks while hitting .255.

Yankees Team Props

'Yankees are the team to beat' - Derek Jeter proclaims New York as American League favorite 👀

The "MLB on FOX" crew break down which team is the team to beat in the American League, Aaron Judge one-on-one with Ken Rosenthal.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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Toronto Blue Jays

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