National Football League

Shedeur Sanders favored to be No. 1 pick in 2025 NFL Draft, Arch Manning next?

Updated Apr. 30, 2024 12:57 p.m. ET

A day after the Chicago Bears selected USC quarterback Caleb Williams with the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, one American sportsbook decided to post a betting market for next year’s No. 1 pick.

Most bettors don’t exactly love the idea of having their money tied up for 12 whole months in a low-limit market, but I went ahead and shot a text over to one of my buddies who lives in Las Vegas and bets professionally.

"Who’s the favorite?" I asked.

"It’s got to be Quinn Ewers," the bettor replied.

Great guess. Once the 21-year-old quarterback announced he was returning to Texas after the Longhorns finished 12-2 with a College Football Playoff appearance, you knew he would be in the mix to go first overall.

DraftKings Sportsbook opened Ewers at 3-1, the second favorite.

"There’s somebody shorter than 3-1?!" the bettor responded.

No more than 15 seconds after I informed him that Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders was the even-money (+100) favorite to be taken first overall in 2025, my phone started doing vibrational circles on the table.

Buzz. Buzz. Buzz.

"Hello."

"Is there a ‘No’ price?" he quickly inquired.

It’s funny how the betting mind works. This fella couldn’t have been any less interested in next year’s No. 1 pick market, but once I told him about the head-scratching favorite at a questionable price, his wheels spun out.

"Sanders has a ton of upside and football is in his blood," the bettor continued. "I thought he played pretty well behind one of the worst [offensive] lines in football. Only three interceptions over 400 throws was impressive, too.

"But there’s no way he should be even money."

Coincidentally, DraftKings took the market off the board over the weekend and re-opened it first thing Monday morning with Sanders still installed as the favorite albeit a couple bucks higher at 3-1.

Ewers and Georgia quarterback Carson Beck are now 5-1.

No. 1 pick odds for 2025 NFL Draft at DraftKings Sportsbook*

Shedeur Sanders, Colorado: +300 (bet $10 to win $40 total)
Carson Beck, Georgia: +500 (bet $10 to win $60 total)
Quinn Ewers, Texas: +500 (bet $10 to win $60 total)
James Pearce Jr., Tennessee: +1000 (bet $10 to win $110 total)
Cameron Ward, Miami: +1700 (bet $10 to win $180 total)
Jalen Milroe, Alabama: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Drew Allar, Penn State: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Patrick Payton, Florida State: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Mykel Williams, Georgia: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Conner Weigman, Texas A&M: +2800 (bet $10 to win $290 total)

*odds as of 4/30/2024

Tennessee edge rusher James Pearce Jr. is the biggest riser so far, climbing from 20-1 to 10-1 in a matter of days, while Penn State quarterback Drew Allar is the biggest faller from 8-1 all the way down to 25-1.

It’s tough to bet any of the favorites at this point in time.

Since we were on the topic of future No. 1 picks, I thought it could be interesting to gauge who might be favored to go first overall in 2026. Obviously, we’re two whole years away and so much can change.

"It all starts with Arch Manning," the bettor said. "That’s the guy you play defense against if you’re booking bets. Even with the possibility that he doesn’t come out, you don’t want to get stuck. Why risk it?

"Peyton went No. 1, Eli went No. 1 and those two combined to win four Super Bowls. Whenever Arch Manning decides to declare for the draft, odds are very good he’s going to be the first pick. There’s no need to deal him at a bloated price.

"I wouldn’t want any liability on Arch."

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.