United States Football League

USFL odds Week 10: Look for Panthers to cover as favorites in final week

Updated Jun. 15, 2022 9:18 p.m. ET

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

We did it, folks! We made it to the final regular-season week of the inaugural USFL season. From a bettor's perspective, and from a football fan's perspective, the last nine weeks have been a treat.

From fading Jeff Fisher to riding the Stallions, some of my best bets were predictable. At times, though, some were not so surefire. Underdogs covered when I predicted they wouldn't, and we had a mixed bag went it came to the overs and unders. But, it's a new league, and we're getting better by the week.

Either way, we made it! Week 10 is here, and the playoffs are right around the corner. So let's dive into my best bets for the final week of the regular season, with all odds via FOX Bet.

Philadelphia Stars (6-3) vs. New Jersey Generals (8-1), 12 p.m. ET Saturday, USA

I’m going to root for points in this contest.

These teams rank first and second in offensive efficiency, and they also come in at sixth and seventh in defensive efficiency. The Stars have scored the most points in the league while the Generals are third in that category.

New Jersey also leads the league in rushing while Philadelphia has the worst rushing defense in the league, allowing a whopping 148 yards per game. The Generals should be able to move the ball on the ground for some scores.

On the flip side, New Jersey has only sacked the quarterback 10 times all season, which means the Stars' QB Case Cookus should cook.

Look for a track meet in the first game of the weekend.

I’ll take the over.

PICK: Over 41.5 points scored by both teams combined

Michigan Panthers (1-8) vs. Pittsburgh Maulers (1-8), 12 p.m. ET Sunday, USA

I am going to do something I thought I’d never do in this 10-week USFL season. I will wager on the Jeff Fisher-led Michigan Panthers team against the Pittsburgh Maulers.

Oh, boy.

Michigan covered for only the third time this season last weekend in a 1-point loss to the Stars. The Panthers continued their outstanding defense, holding the highest-scoring team in the league to just 17 points. So far this season, they've allowed the second-least passing yards and rank fourth-best in rushing defense.

On offense, the Panthers aren’t anything special and they are on their fourth quarterback. But according to Eric Eager of Pro Football Focus, they are a respectable fifth in offensive efficiency. Despite the quarterback issues, the Panthers are first in the league at moving the chains. Imagine that.

Fisher and his Panthers are facing a Maulers team that has an identical record of 1-8, but Pittsburgh got to its dismal record differently.

The Maulers' offense continues to be putrid, scoring only 126 points in their first nine games. They've failed to score more than 18 points in their last four games. The Maulers rank seventh in passing yards per game, and with under just 100 rushing yards per game, they also rank seventh in the league there. No surprise but they also rank seventh in offensive expected points answered.

All of this is to say, yes, I'm riding with Fisher this weekend. Guess there's a first time for everything.

Lay the points with the Panthers.

PICK: Panthers (-2.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 2.5 points

Birmingham Stallions (8-1) vs. Tampa Bay Bandits (4-5), 4 p.m. ET Saturday, FOX

The 8-1 Stallions clinched a playoff berth after beating the Maulers 26-16 in Week 7. Since that win, the Stallions — who enter Week 10 as the third-ranked offense — appear to have shut it down on offense. They’ve scored 10 and 15 points the last two weekends, and now face a Bandits' defense that ranks third in defensive expected points added (EPA) and allows just 18.9 points per game.

On the other side is the Bandits' poor scoring offense. Tampa Bay scores the second-fewest points in the league. The Bandits are also loose with the rock. They've given the ball away 19 times this season and have a minus-13 turnover margin. TB also only converts just 34.1% of its third downs.

While the Stallions' offense has stalled, their defense is legit, allowing the second-fewest points in the league. Key stat: Birmingham hasn't allowed more than 17 points since Week 2.

This will be a slugfest. I’ll take the under in this defensive-minded game.

PICK: Under 41.5 points scored by both teams combined

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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