UFC 186: Johnson vs. Horiguchi Crystal Ball Predictions
Demetrious Johnson (21-2-1) vs. Kyoji Horiguchi (15-1)
With an excellent record, impressive win streak, unconventional karate and boxing style, Horiguchi is one of the more exciting prospects at flyweight. And with his punching power, he'll certainly have a chance against the champion Johnson on Saturday night in the UFC 186 main event.
However, Johnson would appear to just be too much, too soon for the young challenger. Horiguchi would be well-served in fighting three to four more times in the UFC, continue to develop and round out his skills, and gain some more experience before fighting for the world title. However, with how comprehensively and convincingly Johnson has cleared out most top contenders at 125 pounds, Horiguchi is pushed to the front of the line.
Johnson should have the speed advantage with both his feet and hands here. We also expect him to be able to put Horiguchi on his back when he wants to.
Johnson on top of you is a tough task for anyone in the world, and Horiguchi would be no different. If Johnson fights with a good game plan and sets up takedowns behind his strikes, he will have a good chance at finishing the fight with a submission on the ground.
Prediction: Johnson via submission in the fourth round
Quinton "Rampage" Jackson (35-11) vs. Fabio Maldonado (22-7)
So, here we are again. After this matchup fell apart in court, it was put back together by a judge at the 11th hour.
Poor Steve Bosse but lucky Fabio Maldonado. Although Jackson, with his well-rounded skills and championship-level experience, should certainly be the favorite in this fight, Maldonado had good reason to plead for the fight.
The first reason is obvious: Jackson is a big name and Maldonado will have a chance to leap forward in the light heavyweight division should he beat the former champion. More than that, however, the stylistic matchup isn't that bad for the Brazilian at this point in Jackson's career.
Finally, "Rampage" is back in the UFC.
Jackson is and will always be a one-punch KO threat. However, in recent years, he's lost speed (as all fighters do) and apparently a bit of endurance. Jackson always fights gamely until the end, but he does so at just a bit of a slower and less active pace these days.
If Maldonado comes out aggressively, Jackson's counter-punching and angling footwork will need to be pin-point accurate. Otherwise, he'll find himself going backwards against a man with more educated and fluid hands, who has an iron chin (and will) and who is very hard to put away.
Jackson very well could use his good wrestling to put Maldonado on his back, but he'll have to have the endurance to do it over and over again, or keep him there. Maldonado is resilient and superbly conditioned — despite his appearance — and Jackson will have to show him stuff that he hasn't shown many in years in order to finish him.
If Jackson is in shape (a task that will be complicated by his on-again, off-again fight status and weight-cutting process that was just recently picked up once more) and aggressive, he could very well hurt, back up and take down Maldonado. We like Jackson in this matchup, but it won't be easy for him to win unless he manages to get a quick KO.
Prediction: Jackson by decision
Michael Bisping (25-7) vs. C.B. Dollaway (15-6)
Dollaway recently told us that he believes his biggest strength, his wrestling, is Bisping's biggest relative weakness. He is right, in a sense.
The least-developed part of Bisping's well-rounded game would still appear to be his wrestling, whereas that is precisely where the "Doberman" is most comfortable. However, Dollaway will be unlikely to get away with telegraphed takedown attempts that he does not set up.
Though it may be the part of his game that came around last, Bisping's wrestling is not poor by any means. He has shown good timing with his own takedowns at times, and his ability to defend takedowns and get up after getting dragged down has become excellent (as evidenced in his fight against Chael Sonnen).
Can Michael Bisping make one last run?
Bisping works every day with an excellent wrestling-based team, Reign MMA, led by Mark Munoz, and has more than likely focused a great deal of his attention on staying off of his back in this training camp. Dolloway, hopefully, has continued to sharpen his stand-up striking.
Dolloway says he's more comfortable than ever standing and that will need to be true, as well as paired with a sense of urgency against Bisping. Dollaway's turtle shell, shoulder-roll style may not be a good idea against a pressure puncher like Bisping.
If Dollaway keeps his hands in position and has improved his footwork, however, he will have opportunities to land his own strikes, and thus set up takedown attempts against Bisping. Dollaway needs to be opportunistic with strikes, while maintaining his balance and not over-reaching.
Then, he needs to get inside and play a pressure, grinding game against the fence to beat Bisping. If he does, Bisping will have his excellent conditioning tested once more and the fight will be anyone's to win.
Prediction: Very hard to call but Bisping by close decision
John Makdessi (12-3) vs. Shane Campbell (11-2)
Campbell is hot heading into his UFC debut, but it will be hard to bet against the Montreal resident Makdessi. "The Bull" will doubtless be motivated to get back on the winning track and his striking power will serve him well.
Prediction: Makdessi by decision
Yves Jabouin (20-9) vs. Thomas Almeida (18-0)
Jabouin will have the advantages of being the home fighter here, with more experience. However, Almeida is one of the more exciting bantamweight prospects right now.
The 23-year-old won his UFC debut by decision but is a KO machine. Jabouin has his hands full.
Prediction: Almeida by decision
Patrick Cote (20-9) vs. Joe Riggs (40-15)
This fight has flown under the radar but could be an excellent and close-fought one. The former title challenger Cote will fight at home and look to impress with a win over the always tough and dangerous Joe Riggs.
Riggs came back to the UFC with a renewed vigor but had his progress stopped short after a sudden injury in his last fight against Ben Saunders. If Riggs' neck and shoulders have been able to recover, he'll threaten with power punches and could win.
A well-conditioned Cote could have the advantage with a smart, grinding game plan, however. Still, we think Riggs has a good chance at keeping Cote off of him.
Prediction: Riggs by close decision
Alexis Davis (16-6) vs. Sarah Kaufman (17-2)
This is a rematch of one of the now defunct Strikeforce organization's best fights ever. Both veterans bring a wealth of experience and motivation into this fight.
The winner likely will get another chance at the top of the division and the loser will have their work cut out for them, moving forward. This one is hard to call but we'll go with Kaufman in a close fight, likely to go the distance.
Prediction: Kaufman by decision
Chad Laprise (9-0) vs. Bryan Barberena (10-2)
Both lightweights have looked good in their UFC bouts thus far. While there's no particular reason to bet against the undefeated Laprise, we like Barberena's striking power.
Prediction: Barberena by decision
Olivier Aubin-Mercier (5-1) vs. David Michaud (8-1)
Michaud has looked solid in two UFC fights thus far, and he has the experience advantage here. However, Aubin-Mercier's dangerous submission game gives him an edge here, we feel.
Prediction: Aubin-Mercier by decision
Nordine Taleb (10-2) vs. Chris Clements (12-5)
This could go either way, but we like Taleb as a hometown fighter with good power and youth on his side.
Prediction: Taleb by decision
Jessica Rakoczy (1-4) vs. Valerie Letourneau (6-3)
Both women are likely to let their hands go in this bantamweight fight. Call us crazy but we'll go with the underdog, Rakoczy, because of her power punching.
Prediction: Rakoczy by decision
Randa Markos (4-2) vs. Aisling Daly (15-5)
The night's first fight is one to watch as Daly and Markos both always fight aggressively. Though it will be hard-fought, we like Markos because of her solid grappling ability.
Prediction: Markos by decision
