UFC 177: Dillashaw vs. Soto Crystal Ball Predictions
It's not that rare for a fighter to get injured or get forced off a card last minute and for another competitor to step up to replace them. But for the first time ever, just 24 hours out from a main event a first time UFC fighter will battle for a title as Joe Soto replaced Renan Barao on Friday and will face bantamweight king T.J. Dillashaw in the headliner for UFC 177.
Soto is a veteran fighter between several regional promotions and was a former Bellator bantamweight champion before a torn retina nearly ended his career a few years ago. Now healthy and back to full strength, Soto has reeled off six wins in a row to get to the UFC, but will any of that matter facing Dillashaw with just hours to prepare for him?
Let's take a look ahead at the UFC 177 card to see who will come out on top Saturday night in Sacramento.
T.J. Dillashaw vs. Joe Soto
There's no way to deny the fact that on paper this is a mismatch considering Dillashaw is a multi-fight veteran of the UFC and became champion by beating one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the sport in Renan Barao. Soto holds a 15-2 record and holds wins over names like Wilson Reis and Chad George, but clearly he hasn't faced the kind of talent Dillashaw has since coming to the UFC by way of The Ultimate Fighter.
Soto's best attribute is a slick and devastating ground game where he unleashes a bevy of submissions from every position. He's best on top, which will probably give him quite a few wins in the UFC, but this might be the worst possibly stylistic matchup for him on this short of notice.
Dillashaw is a former college wrestler with great takedown skills as well as takedown defense and his footwork while standing was some of the best in the history of the bantamweight division when he took out Barao. Dillashaw is quick to the punch, lands with accuracy and hits like a truck when he connects.
Soto might survive a round or two even because he's smart enough to know how to avoid Dillashaw's best weapons for at least a little while, but once the champion finds his range and opens up with his power, that will be all she wrote
Prediction: T.J. Dillashaw by TKO, Round 2
Tony Ferguson vs. Danny Castillo
Tony Ferguson will look to put a hurting on Danny Castillo the same way he did Katsunori Kikuno.
Regardless of how you feel about this being the co-main event (it's one of the weakest pay-per-view co-mains of the year and beyond), this fight does have implications in the lightweight division. Ferguson has won two in a row and his only loss in the UFC came to ranked 155-pounder Michael Johnson. Castillo has won three of four and, at age 35, is making his last push toward being a contender.
Ferguson, 30, has all the physical advantages. He's bigger, stronger, has more power in his hands and is in his prime. There's a reason why he's listed at -245 heading into the weekend. But you can't underestimate Castillo's guile and superior training at Team Alpha Male. This is also a home fight in Sacramento for the WEC veteran. This one could end up being close. Castillo could very well take a round and push Ferguson. But "El Cucuy" should walk away a ranked lightweight after this one.
Prediction: Ferguson by unanimous decision
Shayna Baszler vs. Bethe Correia
The last time we saw Shayna Baszler compete was on The Ultimate Fighter.
This is actually a very pivotal matchup in the wide-open women's bantamweight division. If Correia wins, it could set up a title fight against champion Ronda Rousey before long. Corriea has already beaten Rousey protégé Jessamyn Duke and Baszler is also one of the Rousey's close friends. Rousey herself has touted Correia's trash-talking abilities and the fact that a fight between the two would make for a good storyline.
Baszler winning would be a stumbling block toward a fairly marketable Rousey-Corriea bout. She has still has fought in the UFC due to injuries and the last glimpse we got of her was when she lost to Julianna Pena on The Ultimate Fighter. Baszler, though, is a veteran of the sport and far more experienced than Correia. If Baszler can get things to the ground, where she excels with catch wrestling, it should lead to a victory.
Prediction: Baszler by submission in the second round
Carlos Diego Ferreira vs. Ramsey Nijem
Ramsey Nijem will look to win his third straight against Carlos Diego Ferreira.
On a card filled with close fights, Ferreira is actually one of the biggest favorites. That's rather surprising since he only has one UFC win under his belt while Nijem has been kicking around the organization for three years. Nijem has also won two in a row and has looked the best he ever has in recent fights. He'll need to stay at distance and use his kickboxing against Ferreira, a grappling ace. Nijem's Muay Thai has come a long way since his time on The Ultimate Fighter.
Six of Ferreira's 10 wins have come by submission, so Nijem could be in trouble if things hit the floor. The question is whether or not the prospect can get him there. It might not be that easy. Nijem is still only 26 years old and in his prime. It seems like this is his time to make something of a run at 155. Ferreira, though three years older, is still green when it comes to the UFC.
Prediction: Nijem by unanimous decision
Damon Jackson vs. Yancy Medeiros
Yancy Medeiros was submitted in his last fight and is now facing a grappling ace.
Jackson is quite the prospect coming out of Legacy FC. He has finished all nine of his fights, including seven submissions. His last time out, he used an arm triangle to choke out UFC veteran Leonard Garcia in just a little more more than 20 seconds. Garcia is a journeyman, but has rarely gotten dominated that way before.
Medeiros is also somewhat of a prospect at age 26 despite being winless in his last three fights. He knocked out Yves Edwards last year, but tested positive afterward for marijuana, overturning the bout into a no contest. The Hawaiian is long and lanky and will need to use his reach advantage to keep Jackson at bay. But if you want to know why Medeiros is a very slight underdog against Jackson, watch his fight with Jim Miller. Medeiros is somewhat susceptible to submissions and that's what Jackson is good at.
Prediction: Jackson by submission in the third round
Middleweight relevance
Lorenz Larkin was once ranked in the UFC's official middleweight top 15. That's where Derek Brunson wants to be. Both men are in a similar spot and that's why this prelim bout Saturday night in Sacramento is so important. Brunson could give Larkin a lot of trouble with his wrestling and athleticism. But Larkin is still just 27 years old. He's removed from his days as a prospect, but he still has promise and should take a unanimous decision against Brunson at UFC 177.
Prospect's premiere
The scouting report on former Olympic wrestling gold medalist Henry Cejudo is that if he fully dedicates himself to MMA, he could be a future champion. The problem is he has struggled to cut to 125 and he'll be making his UFC debut at flyweight Saturday against Scott Jorgensen. Physically, Cejudo might have some major advantages. But Jorgensen is a dirt dog -- he works hard, grinds and finds ways to win. He's also incredibly experienced with fights against almost all the best bantamweights in the UFC.
