DraftKings fantasy MMA daily picks: UFC Fight Night 98 - Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson
Here’s a DraftKings breakdown for UFC Fight Night 98. In this breakdown, you’ll see the best options for your fantasy lineup.
On Saturday night, a pair of lightweights will clash in the main event of TUF Latin America 3 Finale (UFC Fight Night 98). Former UFC lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos will face off against Tony Ferguson. The winner of this will most likely get the next shot at the title.
In the co-main event, Diego Sanchez will welcome Marcin held to the octagon in a lightweight bout. The fight card kicks off at 6:30 PM ET/ 3:30 PM PT on UFC Fight Pass. It will move over to FOX Sports 1 for the rest of the prelims and the main card at 8 PM ET/ 5 PM PT.
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Aug 27, 2016; Vancouver, BC, Canada; Kevin Casey (blue gloves) fights Sam Alvey (red gloves) during UFC Fight Night at Rogers Arena. Mandatory Credit: Anne-Marie Sorvin-USA TODAY Sports
UFC Fight Pass early prelims
Sam Alvey ($9,100) vs. Alex Nicholson ($7,100)
Alvey has looked very impressive in his UFC wins. He’s a powerful striker, he’s durable, and he can be crafty with his submissions if needed. He’s averaged 71.7 FPPG (fantasy points per game) in eight UFC bouts.
Nicholson is 1-1 in the UFC so far. Prior to his promotional debut, he was 6-1 in his MMA career. So far, he’s averaged 58.5 FPPG in two UFC fights.
Nicholson has great power in his hands. This is evident with six of his seven wins coming by knockout. But, it doesn’t mean he looks good doing it. He’s very awkward with his striking and his grappling is way below average.
Alvey is the superior fighter in every way. A knockout can definitely happen here. Nicholson is tough, but Alvey will land some bombs on him. Expect Alvey to get a finish one way or another.
Pick: Sam Alvey by TKO or submission in the second round
Polo Reyes ($8,900) vs. Jason Novelli ($7,300)
Reyes (121.8 FPPG) is an extremely active fighter. He’s mostly a striker and his grappling game is a work in progress. But, if he gets taken down, he finds a way to get back up and land some bombs.
In his fight against Dong Hyun Kim, he landed 136 significant strikers, which is amazing. He scored a total of 139 fantasy points in that match-up.
Novelli is well-rounded, but he’s mostly a grappler. He looks to take fights to the mat and work his submission game. But, based on his last performance, his chances aren’t looking great here. He only scored four fantasy points in his debut against David Teymur, who’s a great striker. He faces a similar match-up here against Reyes.
Based on his high volume striking and Novelli’s struggles with a striker in his last bout, Reyes has this in the bag. Look for Reyes to stay busy throughout the course of three rounds and get the finish.
Pick: Polo Reyes by TKO in the second round
Enrique Barzola ($9,500) vs. Chris Avila ($6,700)
Barzola (54.8 FPPG) is always improving his entire MMA game and he looks better each and every fight. He’s 1-1 in the UFC, but his lone loss was a controversial one. The good thing is he has an extremely favorable match-up against Avila.
Avila faced off against Artem Lobov in his UFC debut and was mediocre, only scoring 21 fantasy points. In his past fights outside of the UFC, he was mostly a grappler since his striking is rudimentary. Basically, he’s just not a UFC caliber fighter yet.
Barzola should take this fight and win however he wants. He’s the better striker and is good enough on the ground to win there as well.
Pick: Enrique Barzola by decision
INDIANAPOLIS, IN – AUGUST 28: Erik Perez stands in the Octagon during his bantamweight fight against Takeya Mizugaki during the UFC on FOX Sports 1 event at Bankers Life Fieldhouse on August 28, 2013 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Ed Mulholland/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)
FOX Sports 1 prelims
Erik Perez ($8,700) vs. Felipe Arantes ($7,500)
When Perez (79.3 FPPG) burst on to the UFC, he was an absolute killer. He finished his first three fights in the first round. But, ever since he lost to Takeya Mizugaki, he seems to have lost that killer instinct.
On the other hand, Arantes (60.2 FPPG) looks better than ever. He’s 5-3 in the UFC, but his most recent wins in the UFC have been very impressive. He’s a dynamic striker and is very crafty on the ground with submissions.
Perez definitely has a shot at winning, but that doesn’t mean he’s the best choice. If he continues to play it safe, that means he won’t score many points. Arantes is always going for it and based on his finishing potential, he’s the choice here.
Grappling and transitions score a significant amount of points on DraftKings now. So, Arantes should be a great play. He should score quite a few points based on significant strikes as well.
Pick: Felipe Arantes by submission in the third round
Marco Beltran ($7,700) vs. Joe Soto ($8,500)
Coming off of a three-fight losing streak, Beltran (68.2 FPPG) signed with the UFC. Now, he’s currently on a three-fight winning streak and is looking to keep it going.
Soto (39.4 FPPG) is stepping in on short notice to face Beltran. He’s mostly known for stepping in on one days notice to fight former bantamweight champion T.J. Dillashaw.
For the most part, he fared pretty well against Dillashaw. But, he was finished in the fifth round. Since then, he has only won one of his four fights in the promotion.
Both fighters are pretty well-rounded here. The edge goes to Soto in the striking, but Beltran will have a slight edge on the ground. Even then, Soto isn’t a slouch on the ground.
Overall, Soto has more tools. He has more experience facing better competition. The only thing going against him is not having enough time to prepare. But, he’s been here before.
This fight should be closely contested, but Soto edges him out, scoring points with striking and grappling.
Pick: Joe Soto by decision
Erick Montano ($7,400) vs. Max Griffin ($8,800)
Montano (48 FPPG) has had an inconsistent MMA career so far with a 7-4 record. He did show off his grappling in his fight against Randy Brown, but he was submitted in the third round.
Griffin stepped in on short notice to face Colby Covington in his UFC debut and was dominated. But, he’s a promising fighter and with a full training camp, he should perform much better.
Montano is mostly a grappler and if he can get that part of his game going, he can find success. But, Griffin is better everywhere else. He’s a solid striker and should be able to stuff the takedowns this time around.
Look for Griffin to keep this fight on the feet and find the most success there. He has the potential to finish the fight and score a great amount of fantasy points.
Pick: Max Griffin by TKO in the first round
Henry Briones ($7,600) vs. Douglas Silva de Andrade ($8,600)
Both fighters haven’t been the most active recently. Briones (58.3 FPPG) hasn’t fought since July of 2015 and Andrade (42 FPPG) since Feb. of 2015. This fight will come down to who’s more prepared.
In his last fight, Briones faced Cody Garbrandt and showed a ton of toughness in a three round decision loss.
Andrade has an impressive record of 23-1, but he hasn’t faced the best competition. As soon as he fought somebody at the next level (Zubaira Tukhugov), he lost. On the other hand, as stated before, Briones fared well against Garbrandt. He took some shots and landed some of his own as well.
Briones is also the more active fighter. He landed 32 significant strikers before getting a second-round submission win in his UFC debut. Andrade only landed 39 in a three-round decision, which isn’t anything special. Briones will be able to stand and trade, getting the better of the exchanges.
Pick: Henry Briones by decision
December 11, 2015; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Tony Ferguson reacts to his victory by submission against Edson Barboza during The Ultimate Fighter Finale at The Chelsea at The Cosmopolitan. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Rafael dos Anjos ($8,300) vs. Tony Ferguson ($7,900)
RDA (71.9 FPPG) is no pushover. He was on a tear in the division before getting knocked out by Eddie Alvarez in his last fight. He’s one of the toughest fighters in the division and is very well-rounded. But, it’s hard to see him beating Ferguson in this matchup for many reasons. For one, he’s no longer training with Rafael Cordeiro at Kings MMA.
Cordeiro is a big reason why he has found a lot of success. Secondly, we believe he’s always had a suspect chin. He’s been knocked out by Jeremy Stephens and Alvarez. Plus, he’s been rocked by other fighters, like Gleison Tibau.
Ferguson (89 FPPG) is an extremely crafty fighter and has so many tools. He puts pressure that most fighters can’t deal with and he mixes up his striking very well. His ground game is also unique and creative.
Finally, his output. In his last two fights, both have gone only two rounds. He landed 66 significant strikers against Lando Vannata and 61 against Edson Barboza. He submitted both of them, securing 100+ fantasy points. He’s a fantasy machine.
RDA will have his moments because he’s an incredible fighter. But, Ferguson will have to many ways to win this fight.
Pick: Tony Ferguson by TKO in the third round
Diego Sanchez ($7,200) vs. Marcin Held ($9,000)
This matchup is all Held. Sanchez has one thing going for him and that’s his toughness. But, it seems like the wars are catching up to him. At UFC 200, he faced Joe Lauzon and was finished very early in the first round with some vicious shots.
It’s hard to see how he can beat Held. He’s very young with a ton of potential. Look for him to get this fight to the ground and dominate with strikes. He can easily secure a TKO finish or lock in a submission.
Being a grappler, he also has the potential to score a lot of fantasy points. A lot of takedowns and grappling transitions will make him a great play.
Pick: Marcin Held by submission in the second round
Ricardo Lamas ($8,100) vs. Charles Oliveira ($8,100)
Lamas (67 FPPG) was set to face B.J. Penn, but Penn got injured. Now, he’ll face Oliveira (60.1 FPPG), who’s very well-rounded and possibly a much tougher test.
Oliveira lost his last fight to Anthony Pettis, but he found a lot of success, especially with his grappling. Unfortunately for him, Lamas is a great grappler and should be able to get things going in his favor.
There’s no doubt that Oliveira is craftier and will take risks in order to secure the victory. But, Lamas will hold his own. He’s faced the tougher competition here and should be smart enough to not fall for Oliveira’s game. Look for him to utilize his striking to score points and hurt Oliveira. He should be able to get some takedowns and work from the top position as well.
Pick: Ricardo Lamas by decision
Martin Bravo ($8,200) vs. Claudio Puelles ($8,000)
There isn’t much to discuss in this fight since there isn’t a lot of information on both fighters. Bravo is 10-0 and Puelles is 7-1.
Bravo’s movement seems very similar to that of Dominick Cruz. He looks to use his footwork to avoid getting hit while landing strikes of his own. He also sets up his takedowns with his movement.
Looking at Puelles, he seems much more comfortable and technical on the feet.
In reality, both fighters have found plenty of success in their MMA careers. Some exposure to both fighters in different lineups would be smart, but fading this fight would be wise as well.
Regardless Bravo should take this based on his movement and well-rounded skill-set.
Pick: Martin Bravo by decision
Beneil Dariush ($7,800) vs. Rashid Magomedov ($8,400)
This fight is, easily, one of the most interesting fights on the card. Dariush (76 FPPG) has always been a talented grappler, but he’s improved his striking immensely. He showcased that against James Vick when he put him to sleep in the first round.
Magomedov (86.5 FPPG) is an extremely technical striker. Currently 4-0 in the UFC, he has only lost once in his MMA career. Dariush will most likely have the edge on the ground, but not by much.
Dariush will have to get this fight to the ground. But, Magomedov is very tough to takedown (82% takedown defense).
He was only taken down once by Gilbert Burns, who’s an accomplished grappler as well, before stopping every other attempt. He went on to land 80 significant strikers and score 100 fantasy points. He’s extremely active.
Look for Magomedov to stuff the takedowns and pick Dariush apart on the feet. As stated before, Dariush has improved a lot in the striking realm, but it isn’t enough to beat Magomedov.
A finish via strikes is definitely likely since Dariush hasn’t shown the best chin either.
Pick: Rashid Magomedov by TKO in the second round
Alexa Grasso ($9,300) vs. Heather Jo Clark ($6,900)
Grasso will be making her UFC debut and has a ton of hype behind her. She’s one of the most expensive fighter on the card and it’s with good reason.
Clark is 7-5 in her MMA career and is 3-4 in her last seven fights. She can fight in every aspect of the game, but it’s hard to find an area where she excels.
On the other hand, Grasso stands out the most with her boxing. She throws great combinations and mixes up her entire game well because of her boxing skills.
Looks for her to pour the pressure on early with her boxing. Clark is tough to finish, but Grasso should be able to land a huge amount of significant strikes, scoring a lot of fantasy points in a decision win.
Pick: Alexa Grasso by decision
High Salary plays
Alexa Grasso ($9,300): Her boxing will be key her. She will land a high-volume of strikes and score a lot of fantasy points.
Sam Alvey ($9,100): Alvey should be able to win however he wants. He has the power and he has an underrated submission game.
Marcin Held ($9,000): Sanchez is on the decline. Look for Held to take advantage of that with his grappling, securing the finish.
Polo Reyes ($8,900): Reyes has a lot of output and should get the finish with his striking.
High Value plays
Rashid Magomedov ($8,400): He’s the favorite, but his price is good enough to make him a great play. It’s hard to overlook him here.
Tony Ferguson ($7,900): Ferguson has to many tools. He’ll be too much for RDA for five rounds.
Henry Briones ($7,600): He’s well-rounded and durable. He’ll be able to out-strike Andrade here.
Felipe Arantes ($7,500): Arantes has a ton of killer instinct. He’ll constantly be going for the finish, whether it’s with his striking or his grappling.
Suggested Lineup
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