American Soccer Analysis has updated their MLS playoff probabilities and things don’t look good for resurgent Sounders and Revolution.
To say it lightly, the Seattle Sounders and the New England Revolution both have had seasons they didn’t expect to have. Both teams started out terribly, New England getting 1 win in their first 11 games and Seattle only getting 13 of their first possible 36 points of the season. When fans of both clubs thought that all hope was lost, both teams have turned things around putting themselves back in playoff contention.
Sep 10, 2016; San Jose, CA, USA; San Jose Earthquakes defender Jordan Stewart (3) and Seattle Sounders midfielder Nicolas Lodeiro (10) in an altercation during the first half at Avaya Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
New England is currently in 6th place in the Easter Conference, holding on to that last playoff spot after winning 3 games in a row. Seattle sits in 7th place, 5 points under the red line but with 2 games in hand. Even though optimism is a great thing, how likely is it that these two teams make it into the 2016 MLS Cup Playoffs? The answer might surprise you.
AmericanSoccerAnalysis.com took the season results so far and ran 10,000 simulations with what could happen in the playoff race. New England, though currently sitting in 6th place in the East, is predicted to finish in 7th with only a 38.54% chance of making it in the playoffs. Predicted to finish above New England is DC United, who have a 50.35% chance of making playoffs.
Seattle is predicted to finish in 7th place as well, but in the West. They have a smaller chance of making it above the red line, with a 31.34% chance of climbing the table. American Soccer Analysis predicts Kansas City to finish above Seattle with a 65.35% chance of making the playoffs, more than twice of Seattle’s.
Obviously it is impossible to predict which teams will stumble across the finish line that is the MLS Cup Playoffs. Still, this is probably a pretty accurate representation of what could happen. You won’t see the likes of Seattle and New England taking this to heart, though, as they fight for that last spot. The games this weekend will definitely change the way the playoff picture could look.
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