Here’s a heretical idea: Crashing out of the Champions League could be the best thing that could happen to Manchester City this season. And let’s follow that up with a bit of dogma: If Manchester United fail to take care of business in Basel, it could shatter this club for the season.
The Manchester giants both face what are effectively must-win games Wednesday in the Champions League, with vastly different expectations.
City are the noveau-riche upstarts; United are the old guard looking a bit uncomfortably up at a “rival” that they had never taken seriously. City would certainly like to have a deep run in the Champions League — after all, getting here was their stated goal last year — but if we’re honest about it, they have already made their point. United, well, that’s a different story. Crashing out here would be déjà-vu, a repeat of 2005 when they failed to get out their group.
And for City, I would suggest failure against Bayern Munich would hardly be “failure” at all. Instead, it would allow them to focus on the matter at hand, which is winning the Premier League.
Right now, European play is a distraction for City, whether they want to openly admit it or not. The fact is that this team lacks the experience to win the European Cup this year against the likes of Barcelona and Real Madrid. There’s no questioning their talent, mind you — you’d take David Silva and Sergio Aguero for any team in a heartbeat — but the tactical naiveté and lack of composure they have shown under the glare of European lights signals this is a team that needs blooding and a year or two.
Going out of this competition at this stage, from arguably the toughest group of the lot, would be a bruise but no more. And, oft-forgot, is that they would still be in Europe, albeit in the less glamorous Europa League. If they really wished to, they could blood some more of their youngsters in that second tier event and plot for next season.
United, on the other hand, are supposed to be a side that can make a deep run in the main event. They were put into what most people figured was a cake-walk of a group, with only Benfica providing serious competition. It’s proved to be anything but, and the run of games have exposed some serious weaknesses in Sir Alex Ferguson’s side.
United only need a draw to go through in Basel, and even given that the Swiss side stormed to a stunning 3-3 draw in their first meeting in Manchester, the Red Devils are widely expected to get what they need this time. But with a slew of vital players out — Chicharito being the latest to go down with an ankle problem on Saturday against Aston Villa — the task is tougher than it might normally be.
The Red Devils have not looked anything close to their magisterial selves of late. Part of this is due to an injury list that includes Tom Cleverley, the Da Silva twins, Anderson and most likely Dimitar Berbatov. But a good deal has to do with turnover and attrition. This year has shown that even Ferguson cannot take even the most talented youngsters like Phil Jones and Ashley Young and ride them through.
Too often this season, United have depended on the magic of Wayne Rooney to carry them in matches where they have played uninspiring football. There’s no denying the individual quality of Nemanja Vidic, Park Ji-Sung or Nani — but there have to be questions over how the team is playing as a whole.
Last time out, Michael Carrick and Darren Fletcher struggled with Benfica’s pace, illuminating a continuing issue that haunts United. Rio Ferdinand has not been half the player he was even a year ago, and young `keeper David de Gea has made his share of boneheaded errors. Time and time again, United have made sloppy mistakes that have come back to haunt them.
But what United can and often do is grind out results. A least a draw in Switzerland is certainly reasonable, even probable. Still, there are many questions about a team which works so hard yet has often come away with so little of late.
The nitty-gritty: City must win and hope Villarreal take at least a point against Napoli. United need only a draw in Switzerland. Should Benfica lose, a win for either Basel or United would give that club top spot.
Trecker picks: Score draw at City that sees Napoli advance; one-goal win for United in Switzerland for them to advance.
Here’s how the other games look:
As mentioned, Bayern have clinched Group A. In the other match, a win for Napoli over eliminated Villarreal takes them through regardless of what happens at the Etihad. Napoli will also qualify with a draw if City draws with Bayern as they are a point above them in the standings. The only rub? Villarreal have never lost at home to an Italian team.
In Group B, things are a bit messy. Inter Milan are through as group winners, but the remaining three teams can still advance. The focus is on France, where whomever wins the Lille-Trabzonspor match will take second place. Should that match end up drawn, CSKA Moscow can go on if they win in Milan. If that doesn’t happen, the Turks can end up in second, as they hold a single point lead on both CSKA and Lille.
In Group C, Benfica are in and Otelul are out. The only thing Benfica will wish to do is seal up the top of the group, which they will do with a win. You know the deal with United and Basel.
In Group D, Real Madrid are through and it is most likely that Ajax will join them even if the Dutch side lose against the Galacticos in Amsterdam. Lyon play eliminated Dinamo in Zagreb and have to hope for a huge win while Ajax gets crushed.
The French have a seven-goal swing to make up to overtake Ajax on goal difference. You think that’s gonna happen?
