New York Yankees
Yes, the Yankees really are in big trouble.
New York Yankees

Yes, the Yankees really are in big trouble.

Published Aug. 12, 2015 9:57 a.m. ET

OK, so here's the think about the Yankees and the Blue Jays ...

THE JAYS WERE ALWAYS BETTER THAN THE YANKEES.

On June 1, the Jays had the best run differential in the East.
On July 1, the Jays had the best run differential in the East.
On August 1, the Jays had the best run differential in the East.

Actually, for a while now the Jays have sported the best run differential in the whole American League, and now it's the best in the majors and by far the best in the league.

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The Jays' season-long superiority was largely masked by their lousy record in one-run games; even now, at 12-23 it's very nearly the worst in the major leagues. But that lousy one-run record did, until very recently, seem enough to torpedo the Jays' postseason chances.

A couple of years ago, the Nationals were probably the best team in the National League East. But they got off to a lousy start and just never got going soon enough. It's not that they weren't good enough; it's just that they ran out of time. And the same thing might easily have happened to the Blue Jays this season. Just a couple of weeks ago, they were 1-in-10 shots to win their division. And that's with Tulowitzki and Price in the fold.

Yes, now their rise seems inevitable. But it wasn't. They've picked up six-and-a-half games in the standings, but they could just as easily have lost ... oh, maybe four-and-a-half games in the standings. These things aren't inevitable until they've already happened.

So should the Yankees panic? I'm not sure what good that would do. Even with the Jays' surge in both talent and victories, they've just barely passed the Yankees in terms of winning the division. As quickly as this thing's turned around, it could turn around again. Yes, the Blue Jays are more talented than the Yankees. But as much as talent, this race will be determined by injuries, scheduling, and plain dumb luck.

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