Major League Baseball

Will Verlander rebound or just keep slipping?

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 1:52 p.m. ET

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The Detroit Tigers have clinched four consecutive AL Central titles, racking up more wins (366) than any other club since 2011. But their World Series window might be closing. Max Scherzer departed via free agency, and David Price is primed to do the same next winter. Miguel Cabrera's still raking, but he's nearly 32 and is recovering from serious ankle and foot surgeries. According to 2015 Steamer projections available on Fangraphs, precious little separates the Tigers (forecast for 85 wins) from the Indians (84) and Royals (81).

For Detroit to win a ring while Miggy's bat is still legendary, they might need Justin Verlander to pitch like a Cy Young Award winner actually worth his $180 million megacontract, rather than a mid-rotation filler. While Verlander once again topped 200 innings in 2014, he posted his lowest strikeout rate (6.9 per nine) since he was a rookie, and got hammered for a career-worst 88 ERA+ (12 percent below league average). This could get ugly, considering that Detroit still owes the 32-year-old righty $140 million through 2019.

Will Verlander rebound, or are the Tigers saddled with the latest regrettable nine-figure deal for a veteran starter? History suggests he might have some quality years left ... if his stuff slips no farther. 

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