Major League Baseball

Who's been the better rookie so far: Cubs' Kris Bryant or Dodgers' Joc Pederson?

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 7:18 p.m. ET

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A couple of months ago, there were a few stories about Kris Bryant. You might remember. He was supposed to be Illinois’ best player since … oh, I don’t know. Cap Anson, maybe. Or Honest Abe Lincoln (whose statistics, sorry to say, have somehow been lost to history). And yes, once Bryant actually proved to management that he was “ready” for the majors, he went right into the lineup and he’s been great. But what if I were to tell you there was another National League rookie, even younger than Bryant and having an even better season? Is that something you might be interested in?

Well, there is another National League rookie who’s been even better than Kris Bryant, and he’s a few months younger than Bryant.

Unless you were asleep Tuesday – well, really unless you’ve been asleep most of this spring – you know I’m talking about the Dodgers’ Joc Pederson.

Kris Bryant’s 855 OPS this season is impressive, especially for a rookie.

Pederson’s 971 OPS is fifth-best in the entire National League.

Pederson’s superior performance must be considered at least mildly surprising, right? In the latest "Baseball America Prospect Handbook," all four prospect lists have Bryant first, second, or third among the hitters, with Pederson eighth or ninth on all four. In his latest "Baseball Prospect Book," John Sickels ranks Pederson 10th among the hitters. MLB.com had him 13th overall (including pitchers), Baseball Prospectus 18th.

Which isn’t to suggest that everybody was wrong about Pederson. With neither him nor Bryant having even 200 at-bats yet, can we really say with any confidence that Pederson will finish the season with better numbers, or that (egads) Pederson’s actually the better player?

No, of course not. Still, I think it’s fair to say that almost nobody thought that Pederson would be this good, this soon. Quoting Baseball America (with all italics mine): “Once the Dodgers sort through their outfield logjam, Pederson should emerge as the center fielder in Los Angeles. He has a chance to become an above-average player immediately, with future star potential.”

Well, the future seems to be now.

And when it comes to Pederson vs. Bryant – and by the way, this is an exhibition, not a competition; please, no wagering – maybe it’s worth noting that Pederson’s already done a couple of things that Bryant hasn’t.

First, Pederson’s not just been hitting home runs; with 16, he’s tied for second in the National League, behind only Bryce Harper (who, it should also be noted, isn’t nearly a rookie but is six months younger than Pederson). He’s also hitting long home runs. Bolstered by a couple of Coors Field moon shots in Tuesday’s doubleheader, Pederson actually leads the major leagues in “average true distance” on his homers: 428 feet per. Bryant’s averaging 406 feet per home run, while Harper’s well down the list at 397 feet.

Hey, average true distance isn’t everything. Eric Hosmer and Lucas Duda are Nos. 2 and 3 on the list, and Kendrys Morales and Prince Fielder are ahead of Stanton, too. That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t still consider Stanton the strongest hitter around. Still, Pederson’s no-doubt dingers probably mean something, right?

Second – and I’m willing to actually bet this means something – Pederson’s simply more valuable in the field than Bryant. Entering this season, the reports about Pederson’s defense were middling: good enough to play center field, but just barely. Those reports probably tell us more than his statistics in the majors ... but man, his statistics in the majors are really good. Not Gold Glove good or something. But they do suggest that Pederson’s more than holding his own in center field.

Meanwhile, Bryant’s defense at third base has been ... well, remember when the Cubs said he needed to work on his defense in spring training, and then in the minors for exactly as long as it took to lose a year of major-league service time? There was at least a kernel of truth in there. Again, we don’t have enough innings to draw any substantive conclusions. But it’s not wildly inappropriate to assume that Pederson’s going to be better in center field than Bryant at third base.

So were we making too much fuss, all this time, about Bryant and not enough about Pederson? As I keep saying, it’s early. Two months ago, everybody liked Bryant more than Pederson. Even now, most statistics-based projections will show Bryant as the better hitter and the better player for the rest of this season.

But if there’s one thing we’ve already learned from Bryce Harper and Mike Trout, it’s that we don’t really know what young players will do until they’ve done it. And to this point anyway, Pederson’s done more of it.

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